1H24 福建风速同比先抑后扬，新能源净利润有望见底回升截至2023 年末控股运营总装机规模5.99GW，其中风电1.81GW，总装机规模和结构较年初无变化；参考在建项目进度，料24 年公司装机规模也将保持稳定。来风状况是影响公司新能源发电的核心因素，2024 上半年福建来风状况先抑后扬，1Q24/2Q24 公司风电发电量同比-10%/+20%，其中海上-5%/+22%、陆上-16%/+17%。新能源子公司2023 年净利润同比下滑，其中福能新能源-23%、福能海峡-31%、海峡发电-22%；若下半年来风状况同比持续改善，新能源子公司盈利有望大幅增长。Adjust profit forecasts and raise target prices
Funeng Co., Ltd. released operating data for the first half of 2024. In 1H24, wind speed in Fujian decreased year on year and then increased, and net profit from new energy sources is expected to bottom up. 2Q24 The growth rate of thermal power production is slowing down, and the net profit of thermal power is expected to benefit from falling coal prices. Adjust profit forecasts: Changxie and spot prices fell, lowering the unit price of standard coal; the incoming wind conditions fell short of expectations, and the number of hours used by wind power was lowered; we expect the company's net profit to mother for 24-26 to be 3/3.2/3.48 billion yuan (previous value: 31.2/32.5 billion yuan), corresponding to EPS of 1.16/1.24/1.35 yuan.
The target PE of 11x for 24 years was given. Among them, thermal power and the other 12xPE (profit share 38%) are consistent with the comparable average of thermal power generation; 11xPE of new energy (62% profit share) is consistent with the comparable average of new energy power generation. The target price was 12.76 yuan (previous value 10.83 yuan, based on 10x23PE). The company's reserve projects are diversified, with a target of 15/20 GW for manual installation in 2025/2030. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Wind speed in 1H24 Fujian was reduced year on year, and net profit from new energy sources is expected to bottom up to 5.99 GW by the end of 2023, of which 1.81 GW of wind power, the total installed capacity and structure have not changed since the beginning of the year. Referring to the progress of the project under construction, it is expected that the company's installed capacity will remain stable in '24. The incoming wind situation is the core factor affecting the company's new energy generation. In the first half of 2024, the wind situation in Fujian was reduced and then improved. 1Q24/2Q24, the company's wind power generation capacity was -10%/+20% year-on-year, of which -5%/+22% offshore and -16%/+17% onshore. Net profit of new energy subsidiaries declined year on year in 2023, including Funeng New Energy -23%, Funeng Strait -31%, and Strait Power Generation -22%. If wind conditions continue to improve year on year in the second half of the year, the profit of new energy subsidiaries is expected to increase significantly.
The growth rate of thermal power production has slowed in 2Q24, and the net profit of thermal power is expected to benefit from the drop in coal prices +8%/+0% year-on-year. Among them, cogeneration stopped falling and rebounded (-20%/+8%), coal-fired power generation fell at a high level (+20%/-14%), and the gas and electricity growth rate slowed (+57%/+3%). In 2023, the net profit of Hongshan Thermal Power was +33%, and Funeng Guidian turned a loss into a profit, thanks to the year-on-year increase in the number of hours used and the average feed-in price, and the control of coal prices within a reasonable range; in 2024, the company's cogeneration and coal-fired power generation profits are expected to benefit from a year-on-year decline in coal prices. In 2023, Jinjiang Gas & Electric achieved net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, of which 2H23 turned a month-on-month loss into a profit, mainly due to base contract transfer transactions carried out in September-December '23.
Diversification of reserve projects. With a manual installation target of 15/20GW in 2025/2030, the company currently reserves diversified power generation installed projects, including a total of 4.0 GW (magnolia drawing+Huashan drawing+Dongtian savings), 1.32 GW of thermal power (Dongqiao Thermal Power Phase I), and 0.65 GW of offshore wind power (Changle); the company is actively seeking 1.32GW of Dongqiao Thermal Power Phase II and the Jinjiang Gas Power Phase II project to participate in the development of offshore wind power project configurations and promote the upgrading of onshore wind power fans from large to small. The company aims to reach 15/20 GW of in-hand power generation installations (holding operation and construction) by the end of 2025/2030, respectively.
Risk warning: Wind power project construction progress falls short of expectations; electricity/coal prices fall short of expectations.
