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机票价格战压缩利润空间,美联航(UAL.US)Q3盈利指引不及预期

Airfare price wars have compressed profit margins, and United Airlines' (UAL.US) Q3 profit forecast fell short of expectations.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jul 18 07:26

United Airlines' third-quarter profit guidance was lower than Wall Street's expectations, due to American Airlines significantly lowering ticket prices to attract domestic travelers.

Intelligent Finance APP learned that Zheshang Securities released a research report stating that considering the comprehensive layout of software and hardware facilities and internal growth-driven factors, it is expected that Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH) will have a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.211 billion yuan, 1.435 billion yuan, and 1.683 billion yuan from 2020 to 2022, with year-on-year increases of 9.50%, 18.46%, and 17.35%, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.56 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.78 yuan. From a growth perspective, the company's compound annual growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2020 to 2022 is 17.90%, and the PEG of the corresponding 2021E PE is 0.52, which is significantly lower than the valuation relative to the growth. Zheshang Securities believes that the reasonable valuation of the company is around 15 times PE, the reasonable market cap of the 2021 net profit attributable to the parent company is about 21.5 billion yuan, and the relative price still has about 58% room for growth. The first coverage is given a "buy" rating.$United Airlines (UAL.US)$The financial performance of the second quarter of 2024 was announced, and the third-quarter profit guidance was lower than Wall Street's expectations, due to American Airlines significantly lowering ticket prices to attract domestic travelers.

According to the financial report, United Airlines Q2 revenue was USD 14.986 billion, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year and basically in line with market expectations. In terms of business segmentation, passenger revenue was USD 13.68 billion, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year; cargo revenue was USD 0.414 billion, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year; and other revenue was USD 0.892 billion, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year. Operating profit was USD 1.929 billion, an increase of 27.2% year-on-year; net income was USD 1.323 billion, an increase of 23.1% year-on-year; diluted EPS was USD 3.96, higher than the same period last year of USD 3.24. Adjusted EPS was USD 4.14, better than the market expectation of USD 3.93 but lower than USD 5.03 in the same period last year.

Q2 available seat miles (ASMs) were 79.678 billion miles, up 8.3% year-on-year; passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) was 17.17 cents, down 2.9% year-on-year; total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) was 18.81 cents, down 2.4% year-on-year. Q2 unit cost decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, but unit cost excluding fuel increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The aviation fuel price was USD 2.76 per gallon, higher than USD 2.66 per gallon in the same period last year.

United Airlines expects adjusted EPS to be between USD 2.75 and USD 3.25 in Q3, lower than the market expectation of USD 3.38. United Airlines, like its competitor Delta Air Lines, warns that the price cuts taken by low-cost airlines to fill excess seats this summer are putting pressure on the entire aviation industry.

It is reported that US airports reached a historic high in passenger traffic this summer, but all airlines filled the vacant seats through price reductions. Airline executives and analysts say that budget airlines catering to cost-conscious passengers are leading the trend of discounts, but larger peers are not immune to the impact of ticket price wars.

United Airlines said that after mid-August, the magnitude of ticket price reductions may weaken. The company said it plans to reduce its domestic capacity by three percentage points in Q4, but did not provide more details.

"United Airlines has been preparing for the adjustment of domestic capacity for the entire industry-now it is clear that there are only 30 days left before the turning point," said United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. TD Cowen analyst Thomas Fitzgerald said in a report that United Airlines is one of the airlines most likely to gain a "substantial" market share as US domestic airlines withdraw.

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Cowen Inc 7.75% Senior Notes due 15/06/33 USD25:

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