公司预计2024 年二季度实现归母净利润3.01-3.71 亿元/yoy+12.7%-39% ， 实现扣非归母净利润2.95-3.65 亿元/yoy+11.7%-38.3%业绩表现亮眼。公司业绩稳健增长一方面得益于下游需求持续高景气，动力及储能电池销量持续提升，根据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟，2024 年上半年中国动力电池销量达318.1GWh，同比增长26.6%，其他电池销量84.5GWh，同比增长137.3%；另一方面，公司深化降本增效，在成本挖潜、提升运营效率等方面持续发力，助力实现利润水平的稳定增长。公司归母净利润自2021 年一季度以来连续14 个季度实现同比正增长，在锂电池产业链整体产能过剩、盈利下行的大背景下，盈利韧性凸显。Kodali announced its 2024 semi-annual results forecast: net profit due to mother is expected to be 0.61-0.68 billion yuan, up 19.9%-33.65% year on year, and is expected to achieve net profit without deduction of 0.59-0.66 billion yuan, up 18.96%-33.07% year on year.
Key points of investment
The second quarter results were impressive, and profit resilience was highlighted
The company expects to achieve net profit of 0.301-0.371 billion yuan/yoy +12.7%-39% in the second quarter of 2024, and achieve outstanding performance of 0.295-0.365 billion yuan/yoy +11.7%-38.3% net profit deducted from mother. On the one hand, the steady growth in the company's performance has benefited from continued high downstream demand and continued growth in power and energy storage battery sales. According to the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in the first half of 2024, China's power battery sales reached 318.1 GWh, an increase of 26.6% year on year, and sales of other batteries were 84.5 GWh, an increase of 137.3% year on year; on the other hand, the company deepened cost reduction and efficiency, and continued efforts in cost exploration and improved operating efficiency to help achieve a steady increase in profit levels. The company's net profit to mother has achieved positive year-on-year growth for 14 consecutive quarters since the first quarter of 2021. Against the backdrop of overcapacity and declining profits in the lithium battery industry chain, profit resilience is prominent.
Accelerate the global production capacity layout, and continuous growth can be expected
The company has implemented a strategy of supporting production bases close to major customers. On the one hand, it effectively reduces logistics costs, and on the other hand, enhances efficient service capabilities for customers and enhances long-term stable supply chain partnerships. The company's customers have covered leading domestic and international power battery and automobile manufacturers such as the Ningde Era, China Airlines, Tesla, Panasonic, Northvolt, ACC, LG, Samsung, Everweft Lithium, and Honeycomb Energy. In terms of production capacity, the company has now set up 13 production bases in key regions of the domestic lithium battery industry, and announced the establishment of an American subsidiary in May 2024. It plans to invest no more than 49 million US dollars to build a precision structural parts production base for new energy power batteries in the US. In addition, the company will increase the capital of 30 million euros to Kodali in Hungary in 2023 and 32 million euros to Kodali in Hungary. In recent years, the company has continued to increase its overseas production capacity in Hungary, Germany, Sweden and the United States. The base is expected to be expanded one after another, gradually contributing to revenue flexibility.
Profit forecasting
The company's net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is estimated to be 1.4/1.8/2.1 billion yuan, EPS is 5.25/6.55/ 7.9 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 16/12/10 times, respectively. Based on the company's outstanding core competitiveness and steady growth in performance, we are optimistic about the company's medium- to long-term upward development opportunities and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Competition increases risk; risk of large fluctuations in product prices; downstream demand falls short of expectations; expansion of new projects falls short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices.