The difference between this report and other market reports is: ① On the demand side, we analyzed the future market space of albumin and static propylene. In addition to comparing the usage levels in other overseas countries, we also combined domestic clinical application guidelines and evidence to demonstrate the future market potential of albumin and static propylene; ② On the supply side, we analyzed the number of the company's pulp stations and pulping period. Tiantan Biotech's share of newly operated pulp stations within 0-3 years is number one in the industry. In addition, a large number of approved and unoperated slurry stations will also be put into operation in an orderly manner in the future, and the company's slurry yield has great potential to grow ③ tons; In terms of pulp profit, in addition to focusing on the company's traditional small products to obtain certification, we are also focusing on the company's future potential large varieties, such as subcutaneous immunoglobulin injections, which are currently on the rise abroad, and domestic products are still in an empty market.

Tiantan Biotech's core investment logic: ① The company is a leading company in the blood products industry, backed by the shareholder Sinopharm Group, and has strong overall strength. The number of newly operated plasma stations in various provinces and cities has continued to increase in recent years, and plasma separation capacity is also increasing at the same time, and the size of the company is expected to continue to increase; ② The blood products industry pattern is stable, demand for blood products, especially isopropyl, continues to rise significantly after the epidemic, the proportion of out-of-hospital use has increased significantly, and the price remains at a stable level. In 2023, Tiantan Biopromel+albumin products accounted for more than 88% of revenue. The terminal sales boom led to a marked increase in the factory price and gross margin of the company's products, and the profitability of more small product forensics companies is expected to further increase in the future; ③ The company's R&D pipeline layout is highly forward-looking, and the release of new products is expected to further boost market demand.

The company is the first domestic blood product company to launch fourth-generation Jingpropylene, and the product yield and profitability are expected to further improve; in addition, the company is also simultaneously promoting clinical phase III clinical trials of subcutaneous immunoglobulin injections. This product is highly accepted in overseas markets, and patients can inject it themselves at home. It has become a fist product of leading overseas blood products companies, and Tiantan Biotech is expected to become the first company to launch such products in China, further opening up market space for immunoglobulin products.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 6.298/7.421/8.725 billion, net profit to mother of 1.393/1.664/1.995 billion, and EPS of 0.70/0.84/1.01 yuan, corresponding to the current market value PE of 33/28/23 times. The company is a leading enterprise in the blood products industry. The amount of pulp collected is the highest in the industry. Operating cash flow continues to grow, and market demand for blood products continues to expand. Therefore, we use an absolute valuation method to maintain the company's “buy” rating, with a target price of 28.96 yuan.

Risk warning: Pulp harvesting falls short of expectations, product terminal price reduction, compliance risks, etc.