维持“增持”评 级，上调目标价至222.60元。24年Q1 需求开始逐步向上，符合对Q1 周期底部的判断，进入强补库周期，Q2 无论是营收还是利润均超预期恢复，故上调24-25 年EPS 为3.18/4.12 元，并新增26 年EPS 为5.30 元（原值24-25 年EPS 为2.58/3.93 元）。公司耳机下游快速增长，BES 2800 新品实现量产出货，手表市场快速成长，并逐步打开AR 眼镜等新市场。考虑到数字SoC 行业中可比公司2024年平均估值为54 倍PE，公司是国内为数不多进军6nm 的玩家，给予一定估值溢价，给予其2024 年70 倍PE，上调目标价至222.60 元。Introduction to this report:
Q2 predicts that performance has exceeded expectations. At the bottom of the cycle, the headphone market gradually recovers, watches/bracelets expand major customers, and markets such as superimposed AR glasses open, and it is expected that a new round of growth will begin with the 6nm BES 2800.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating, the target price was raised to 222.60 yuan. Demand began to rise gradually in Q1 in '24, in line with the judgment at the bottom of the Q1 cycle. Both revenue and profit recovered beyond expectations in Q2, so the 24-25 EPS was raised to 3.18/4.12 yuan, and the 26-year EPS was added to 5.30 yuan (the original 24-25 EPS was 2.58/3.93 yuan). The company's headphone downstream is growing rapidly, new BES 2800 products are mass-produced and shipped, the watch market is growing rapidly, and new markets such as AR glasses are gradually being opened up. Considering that comparable companies in the digital SoC industry have an average valuation of 54 times PE in 2024, the company is one of the few domestic players to enter 6nm, giving them a certain valuation premium, giving them 70 times PE in 2024, and raising the target price to 222.60 yuan.
The Q2 forecast performance exceeded expectations. The bottom of the market is already in Q1. Demand continues to rise in Q2, and various businesses are expected to continue to increase during the Q3 consumer electronics peak season. According to the pre-performance increase announcement, the company 24H1 achieved revenue of about 1.531 billion yuan, YoY +68.24%, net profit to mother of about 0.148 billion yuan, YoY +199.68%, after deducting net profit of 0.112 billion yuan and YoY +1873.29%. In terms of Q2 performance alone, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 0.878 billion yuan, YoY +66.76%, QoQ +34.38%; net profit due to mother 0.12 billion yuan, YoY +140.80%, QoQ +336.23%; net profit without return to mother 0.103 billion yuan, YoY +237.38%, and QoQ +1030.77%. Among them, Q2 revenue hit a record high in a single quarter and is expected to start a new round of growth. It is worth mentioning that the company's gross margin stabilized. Q2 gross margin was 33.40%, up 0.5 pcts from month to month, in line with expectations. It is expected that Q3 will continue to rise upward.
At the bottom of the cycle, the headphone market gradually recovered, and the watch/bracelet market gradually introduced major customers such as Samsung, superimposed market iterations on new products such as AR glasses. The company is expected to start a new round of growth with the 6nm BES 2800. 1) New chip: The BES2800 next-generation smart wearable chip achieved mass production and shipment, and is one of the few domestic chip players entering the 6nm market. It is expected that 24H2 will be clearly reflected in revenue; 2) Watch/bracelet market: continue to expand new products and new customers, including Samsung, etc., and gradually increase market share; 3) AIoT market: customer demand in the smart wearables and smart home sector continues to grow, driving the company's revenue growth; 4) Headphone market: is gradually recovering.
Catalysts: Fast release of BES 2800 in Q3; demand continues to rise.
Risk warning: The company's product iteration falls short of expectations; the competitive landscape of the industry deteriorates.
