Incident Overview
The company released the 2024 mid-year report forecast.
24H1's performance is basically in line with expectations. New orders in Q2 achieved rapid growth 2024H1. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 68-78 million yuan, +51%-73% year over year, of which Q2 is 40.66-50.66 million yuan, +17%-46% year over year; 2024H1 is expected to achieve net profit without return to mother 67-77 million yuan, +50%-72% year over year, of which Q2 is 39.77-49.77 million yuan, +14%-43% year over year , basically in line with our expectations. Looking at the business segment, we judge that the company's structural mechanical performance testing and military PHM continue to grow rapidly and still contribute to the company's main revenue sources. At the same time, electrochemical workstations and customized measurement and control analysis systems are progressing smoothly, further driving revenue side growth. Due to delayed delivery of some of the customers' own projects and inadequate acceptance procedures, some of the company's orders did not achieve revenue recognition at the end of 2023. We determine that related businesses completed revenue carry-over in 2024H1. In terms of new orders, benefiting from the upward trend in downstream demand, we judge that 24Q2 achieved rapid growth in new orders, laying the foundation for high performance growth in the second half of the year.
The main structural mechanics business has potential for continuous expansion. PHM+ electrochemistry+custom measurement and control opens up room for growth 1) Structural mechanical performance testing system: Compared horizontally with leading overseas NI, the company's revenue volume is still small. Benefiting from the steady growth in demand in military, scientific research and other industries and the acceleration of import substitution driven by autonomy and control, the superposition company continues to expand from research and application to equipment deployment, and the company is expected to continue the rapid growth trend. 2) PHM (fault prediction and health management): It is the core technology of modern weapons and equipment, and has broad prospects in civilian fields such as intelligent manufacturing. The company is one of the few private enterprises in China that have fully mastered PHM core technology, and has great potential for growth; 3) Electrochemical workstations: Chemical testing core scientific instruments, which have formed a mature product system, are being introduced at an accelerated pace in universities, and are actively deploying the new energy market; 4) Customized measurement and control analysis systems: testing and control two-in-one products, with large domestic alternatives and urgent demands. The company is taking the lead in achieving breakthroughs and raising investment projects. Accelerate the industrialization process.
Focusing on robotics and low-altitude economy theme catalysis, it is expected to fully benefit downstream development 0 to 1.
1) Robots: Force/torque sensors are the core components for robots to achieve active and flexible control. The company attaches great importance to the sensor industry layout. The sensor product matrix is rich. Among them, strain sensors and pressure sensors have mature product applications, which are expected to fully benefit from the trend in the humanoid robot industry. 2) Low-altitude economy: In response to the demand for AC313A main propeller, tail propeller and ground data acquisition equipment, the company first developed a dedicated main propeller telemetry, tail propeller telemetry and non-rotating data acquisition joint synchronous test system for the Ironbird aircraft ground test. In the AC313A helicopter ground joint test, the system successfully collected main tail propeller strain signals, airframe vibration, temperature, etc.
Investment advice
Considering the trend of new orders received by the company, we adjusted the 2024-2026 revenue forecasts to be $6.04, 8.23, and 1,043 billion yuan (original values of 5.53, 7.57, 0.966 billion yuan), respectively, +60%, +36%, and +27%, respectively; adjusted net profit to mother for 2024-2026 was 1.88, 2.70, and 356 million yuan (original value of 0.177, 0.255, 0.334 billion yuan), respectively, +114%, +44% compared with the same period last year. 32%; adjusted 2024-2026 EPS forecasts were 1.36, 1.95, and 2.58 yuan, respectively (original values 1.28, 1.84, 2.42 yuan).
The closing price of 33.34 yuan on July 16, 2024 was 25, 17, and 13 times PE, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning
New business expansion fell short of expectations, military industry demand declined, etc.