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U.S. Stock Market Preview: Interest rate cut is on the horizon! The market bets on 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September; AI concept stocks fell sharply before the opening, with ASML Holding falling nearly 8%.

Futu News · Jul 17 20:37

全球宏观

周三，美股三大股指期货盘前普跌

今晚凌晨2点，美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书。截至发稿，美股三大期指盘前普跌。

鲍威尔讲完，今晚沃勒要来了

随着美联储FOMC货币决议的临近，美联储官员们即将进入“静默期”。因此，本周美联储主席鲍威尔及其他票委的言论备受市场关注，他们将对通胀放缓进行评估，并考虑是否发出开始降息的信号。今晚沃勒将会发表讲话，他被市场认为是“鹰派”，曾在5月底表示，希望看到“几个月的良好通胀数据”才会支持降息。

美联储“三把手”暗示：美联储即将降息！但不会是7月

据“美联储传声筒”Nick Timiraos报道，美联储“三把手”、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示，如果近期通胀持续放缓，未来几个月可能有理由降息，不过不会在两周后的美联储会议上降息。威廉姆斯指出，过去三个月的通胀数据“让美联储更接近我们所期待的通胀回落趋势。这些都是积极的迹象。希望看到更多的数据，以获得进一步的信心，即通胀正在持续向我们2%的目标移动。”

降息真要来了？市场押注美联储9月份降息概率为100%

投资者相信美联储将在9月会议结束前降低利率。根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具的数据，截至周二上午，市场预计9月份降息的可能性为100%，高于一个月前的70%。在信心增强之前，6月份的通胀数据好于预期，同时劳动力市场出现进一步降温的迹象。总而言之，经济学家和投资者都认为，这些数据意味着，一旦通胀率降至接近美联储2%的目标水平，美联储将很快开始降息。

摩根大通CEO警告：通胀可能再次上升，美联储应保持耐心

美东时间周三（7月17日），摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙表示，美联储决定下一步利率行动时应保持耐心，以应对通胀再次上升的可能性。戴蒙周三在接受媒体采访时称：“通胀正朝着正确的方向发展，但如果美联储现在再等等，那就更好了。”自去年7月以来，美联储没有再调整过利率，联邦基金利率目标区间一直维持在5.25%至5.50%，这是逾20年来最高的利率水平。

美国债市忽视“特朗普交易”，“降息交易”占上风

近几日，通胀回落叠加鲍威尔的鸽派言论，提振了美联储9月降息的预期，“降息交易”势力日渐强大；另一方面，随着特朗普的民调支持率优势扩大，且由于特朗普加征关税、限制移民以及偏好财政货币双宽松的执政思路，这容易导致通胀预期反弹，美债收益率尤其是长期美债收益率面临上行风险。当前的行情数据显示美债全线走高，意味着由降息预期驱动的交易“更胜一筹”。

热点要闻

美股AI概念股盘前跌幅扩大，阿斯麦跌近8%，台积电跌超5%，英伟达跌近4%

阿斯麦Q2业绩超预期，但下一季度指引不及预期，美股盘前跌近8%

$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$盘前跌近8%，报985.5美元。消息面上，阿斯麦刚刚公布Q2业绩显示，二季度的订单量为55.7亿欧元，高于市场一致预期的44.1亿欧元；但是，阿斯麦预计第三季度销售额为67-73亿欧元，低于市场预期的74.6亿欧元；预计第三季度毛利率为50%-51%，亦低于市场预期的51.1%。

亚马逊Prime Day开局强劲，前六小时销售额同比激增13%

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$的Prime Day是每年一次的重要促销活动，吸引了大量的消费者和品牌参与。2024年Prime Day再次迎来了强劲开局。根据Momentum Commerce的数据，Prime Day在活动开始的前六小时内，销售额比去年同期增长了约13%。

GitLab盘前大涨超15%，公司据悉正在考虑出售

软件开发商$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$美股盘前涨超15%，报58.27美元。消息面上，据路透援引消息人士称，GitLab正在与投行合作探讨出售，并吸引了包括云监控公司$Datadog (DDOG.US)$在内的同行公司的兴趣。GitLab的平台允许开发、运营和安全团队使用单一工具进行软件设计和管理。根据官网说明，其平台拥有超过3000万注册用户，并被《财富》世界100强中的半数企业所采用。

强生盘前微跌，Q2营收同比增长 4.3%，下调全年收益指导

$强生 (JNJ.US)$盘前微跌，二季度营收为224.5亿美元，高于去年同期的215.2亿美元，同比增长 4.3%，超过市场预期的223.1亿美元;强生第二季度每股收益2.82美元，高于去年同期的2.56美元，超过市场预期的2.7美元。

美国合众银行盘前涨超1%，二季度净收入微超市场预期

$美国合众银行 (USB.US)$盘前涨超1%，报43.81美元。二季度净收入为68.7亿美元，市场预估为68亿美元；经调整后每股收益0.98美分，市场预估0.94美分。第二季度平均存款总额5139.1亿美元，预期5140.4亿美元。第二季度净息差2.67%，预期为2.68%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌

台积电盘前跌超5%，受阿斯麦Q3收入指引不及预期影响

受阿斯麦业绩指引拖累，$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前跌超5%，报176.09美元。消息面上，阿斯麦表示下游客户资本开支有限，阿斯麦预计第三季度销售额为67-73亿欧元，低于市场预期的74.6亿欧元；预计第三季度毛利率为50%-51%，亦低于市场预期的51.1%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:00 2024年FOMC票委巴尔金发表讲话

21:15 美国6月工业产出月率

21:35 美联储理事沃勒就经济前景发表讲话

22:30 美国至7月12日当周EIA原油库存(万桶)

22:30 美国至7月12日当周EIA战略石油储备库存(万桶)

次日

02:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。

编辑/ping

Global macro

On Wednesday, pre-market trading for the three major US equity index futures was generally down.

At 2 am tonight, the Fed will release the Beige Book report on economic conditions. As of press time, the three major US stock index futures were generally down before the opening.

After Powell speaks, Walle will be on tonight.

As the US Federal Reserve's FOMC monetary policy meeting approaches, Fed officials will soon enter the "quiet period." Therefore, this week, Fed Chair Powell and other voting members are closely watched by the market for their assessment of the slowdown in inflation and whether they will send signals to start cutting interest rates. Walle will speak tonight. He is considered a hawk by the market and said at the end of May that he would support a rate cut only after seeing "several months of good inflation data."

The Fed's 'three leaders' hint: the Fed is about to cut interest rates! But it won't be in July.

According to Nick Timiraos, the Fed's "messenger," New York Fed President Williams hinted that if recent inflation continues to slow, there may be reason to cut rates in the coming months, but it won't be at the Fed meeting in two weeks. Williams pointed out that the inflation data over the past three months "brings the Fed closer to the inflation downturn trend we expect. These are positive signs. I hope to see more data to gain further confidence that inflation is continuing to move toward our target of 2%."

Is rate cut really coming? The market bets that the chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September is 100%.

Investors believe that the Fed will cut rates before the end of the September meeting. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market expects a 100% chance of a rate cut in September as of Tuesday morning, up from 70% a month ago. Before confidence improved, inflation data in June was better than expected, while there were signs that the labor market was further cooling. In general, economists and investors believe that these data mean that once the inflation rate drops close to the Fed's target level of 2%, the Fed will soon begin to cut rates.

JPMorgan CEO warns that inflation may rise again and the Fed should be patient.

On Wednesday (July 17) in Eastern Time, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that the Fed should be patient in deciding the next interest rate action, in response to the possibility of inflation rising again. Dimon said in an interview with the media on Wednesday: "Inflation is developing in the right direction, but it would be better if the Fed waited." Since July last year, the Fed has not adjusted its interest rate, and the federal funds rate target range has been maintained at the highest level in over 20 years, 5.25% to 5.50%.

USA bond market ignores 'Trump trade', 'rate cut trade' gains the upper hand.

In recent days, the decline in inflation coupled with Powell's dovish remarks have boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, and the "rate cut trading" camp has gained increasing momentum; on the other hand, with Trump's increasing approval ratings and the tendency toward dual loosening of fiscal and monetary policies as he imposed tariffs and restrictions on immigration, this could lead to a rebound in inflation expectations, and bond yields, especially long-term US bond yields, are facing upside risks. Current market data shows that US bonds are rising across the board, meaning that trading driven by expectations of a rate cut is more successful.

Hot news

Pre-market trading of US AI concept stocks widened losses, with ASML Holding dropping nearly 8%, Taiwan Semiconductor falling more than 5%, and Nvidia falling nearly 4%.

ASML Holdings Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter fell short of expectations, and US stocks fell nearly 8% before the opening.

$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Fell nearly 8% before the opening, at $985.5. ASML Holdings just announced Q2 earnings, with orders of €5.57 billion, higher than the market's expected €4.41 billion; however, ASML expects sales in Q3 to be between €6.7 billion and €7.3 billion, lower than the market's expected €7.46 billion; the expected gross margin in Q3 is between 50% and 51%, also lower than the market's expected 51.1%.

Amazon's Prime Day started strongly, with sales up 13% year-on-year in the first six hours.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Prime Day is an annual major promotion that attracts a large number of consumers and brands. In 2024, Prime Day got off to a strong start again. According to data from Momentum Commerce, sales in the first six hours of the event were up about 13% from the same period last year.

GitLab rose more than 15% before the market, and the company is reportedly considering a sale.

Software developer$Gitlab (GTLB.US)$Pre-market trading rose more than 15%, at $58.27. On the news front, according to Reuters citing sources, GitLab is cooperating with investment banks to explore a sale that has attracted interest from peer companies such as cloud monitoring companies.$Datadog (DDOG.US)$Use your Futubull account to access the platform. GitLab’s platform allows development, operational, and security teams to use a single tool for software design and management. According to its official website, the platform has over 30 million registered users and has been adopted by half of Fortune's Global 100 companies.

Johnson & Johnson fell slightly before the opening, with Q2 revenue up 4.3% year-on-year, and lowered its full-year earnings guidance.

$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$Pre-market trading is slightly down. In Q2, revenue was $22.45 billion, higher than the $21.52 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, which exceeded market expectations of $22.31 billion; Johnson & Johnson's second-quarter EPS was $2.82, higher than the $2.56 in the same period last year, and exceeded market expectations of $2.7.

U.S. Bancorp rose more than 1% before the market, and its second-quarter net income slightly exceeded market expectations.

$U.S. Bancorp (USB.US)$Rising more than 1% before the market, it was reported at $43.81. The second-quarter net income was $6.87 billion, which was estimated to be $6.8 billion by the market; the adjusted EPS was $0.98, which was estimated to be $0.94 by the market. The total average deposit amount in the second quarter was $513.91 billion, and the expected value was $514.04 billion. The net interest spread in the second quarter was 2.67%, and the expected value was 2.68%.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks fell before market.

Taiwan Semiconductor fell more than 5% before the market, affected by ASML Holding's Q3 revenue guidance being worse than expected.

Affected by ASML Holding's performance guidance,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$fell more than 5% before the market, reporting $176.09. In terms of news, ASML Holding stated that downstream customer capital expenditure is limited. ASML Holding expects Q3 sales to be 6.7-7.3 billion euros, which is lower than market expectations of 7.46 billion euros; it is expected that the Q3 gross margin will be 50%-51%, also lower than the market's expected 51.1%.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:00 FOMC voting member Barkin speaks in 2024.

21:15 U.S. industrial production month-on-month rate in June.

21:35 Federal Reserve Board member Waller speaks on economic prospects.

22:30 EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 12 in the United States (10,000 barrels).

22:30 EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending July 12 in the United States (10,000 barrels).

Next day

02:00 Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions.

Editor/ping

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