After more than two months of consolidation, the gold market in July once again ushered in a breakthrough moment.

On Tuesday, July 16, spot gold surged nearly $47. On Wednesday, in the early Asian market, spot gold further rose to $2480/ounce, refreshing the historical record high. However, it quickly fell back and now reports at $2465/ounce.

Due to the growing expectations of a rate cut by the Fed and some traders increasing their bets on President Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, investors are flocking to gold as a safe-haven asset.

On Wednesday, Hong Kong A gold stocks rose in early trading but quickly fell back. As of the publication, A shares * ST Zhongrun and Yangtze River investment rose to the limit, Shenyang Cuihua Gold and Silver Jewelry, Lao Fengxiang followed the rise; Hong Kong stock China Chi Silver GP, SD Gold, Lingbao Gold rose slightly.

In terms of domestic gold jewelry prices, after the international gold price hit a record high, the prices of many branded gold jewelry have surpassed 750 yuan/gram, with the highest reaching 754 yuan/gram.

The probability of a rate cut in September is 100%.

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia pointed out that gold prices have soared to record highs as expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve continue to increase. Trump's possible victory in the election has intensified market volatility, prompting investors to turn to gold.

CME's FedWatch tool shows that traders predict a 100% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September, and a 93.3% chance that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate target range from the current 5.25% - 5.5% to 5% - 5.25%.

A month ago, traders believed that there was about a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Fed in September.

In addition, lower-than-expected inflation data and dovish remarks by Powell also supported the gold price.

The US Department of Labor reported last Thursday that the US consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis in June. This was the first decline since May 2020, and the market had previously expected an increase of 0.1%. The US non-seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in June, lower than the market expectations of 3.1%, and reaching the lowest level since June last year.

Fed Chairman Powell attended the Economic Club of Washington on Monday, stating that the US economy is doing well. Recent inflation data has strengthened Fed officials' confidence that price pressures will remain low and inflation will return to the target track.

Powell added: "Once we are confident that inflation is moving towards our 2% target, the Fed will lower borrowing costs."

In other respects, as Trump's momentum in his bid for the presidency continues to rise, the market continues to evaluate the impact of the weekend assassination on finance and politics. If the global trade tensions escalate due to proposed tariff increases, Trump's return to the White House could enhance the safe-haven status of gold. The planned tax cuts could also lead to a surge in the US government deficit.

Will soon challenge $2500/ounce?

Regarding the future trend of gold, many institutions and analysts believe that the price of gold still has room to rise and may reach $2500/ounce.

Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio said that even though gold is at a record high, it still attracts investment and is worth a considerable portion of the investment portfolio.

UBS strategist Joni Teves also believes that there is further potential for gold prices to rise. In addition, the escalating geopolitical risks and the weak dollar also supported the rise in gold prices.

Pepperstone Group Ltd. research director Chris Weston wrote in a report on Wednesday: "The fundamentals have clearly changed, providing investors with more reasons to reallocate gold in their portfolios, leading to price-sensitive funds chasing higher prices. Due to the wide market position and non-extreme market sentiment, $2500 is likely to be tested soon."

SIA Wealth Management Chief Market Strategist Colin Cieszynski said: "I am optimistic about the future trend of gold in the next week and may break through the $2500 mark."