Source: Wall Street See
JPMorgan believes that issues such as heat dissipation and high voltage are more common during the introduction of new products, but they are not expected to have a substantial impact on the mass production plan. By the first quarter of 2025, the Blackwell series of GPU will account for more than half of the upstream GPU production.
Investors have recently been concerned about potential delays in the mass production of GB200 Bianca due to heat dissipation issues and high voltage.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Mass production of GB200 Bianca may be delayed.
According to JPMorgan's latest report on Tuesday, issues such as heat dissipation and high voltage are common in the introduction of new products and are not expected to have a substantial impact on the mass production plan. The GB200 series chip production is progressing smoothly.
Specifically, JPMorgan expects that:
In the second half of 2024,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$the CoWoS-L production capacity is expected to be between 0.045 million and 0.05 million pieces, indicating that the production scale of Blackwell GPUs will be between 0.6 million to 0.7 million.
Recent upstream supplier production volumes have not changed, and it is expected that the Blackwell series GPU will account for more than half of upstream GPU production in the first quarter of 2025. From the perspective of downstream suppliers, the hybrid ratio of Blackwell GPU in 2024 and 2025 will be 15% and 80-85%, respectively.
Heat dissipation and high voltage risks are not new, and JPMorgan said:
GB200 main board has overheating and high voltage issues due to the high TDP power consumption of the GPU (Bianca/Ariel is 2700W/1500W, H100 is 700W), but these concerns are common in the introduction of new products.
Most of the supply chain suppliers still plan to start mass production of GB200 Bianca main board in mid-September. Although there may be incremental bottlenecks in the next two months, it is expected that it will not cause significant delays in the production plan of Bianca board.
GB200 Ariel module is unlikely to replace the Bianca module (Ariel module is a Grace + a Blackwell, aimed at Meta and enterprises, Bianca module is a Grace + two Blackwell). JPMorgan said:
It is expected to produce 0.1 million to 0.12 million Bianca modules this year, while the production of rack-level systems should be only a few thousand. The Ariel board is expected to be produced in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the Bianca board will account for more than 70% of the GB200 series. Even if the production of Bianca board is delayed, it is expected that ultra-large-scale computing customers will not switch from Bianca to Ariel.
Overall, JPMorgan's positive forecast for the proportion increase of GB200 series products next year remains unchanged. Based on the market's optimism for GB200 Ariel, Quanta Computer rose by 7% on Tuesday.
Editor / jayden