On July 17th, Grall and New Bank's New Zealand economist revised their forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate. They now expect the first interest rate cut to occur in November this year, rather than February 2025. ANZ Bank said they believe the risk balance around this issue leans towards earlier (October) rather than later. In addition, they expect interest rates to be cut steadily by 25 basis points at each meeting, with the final rate reaching 3.5%. In addition to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand admitting last week that there are downside risks to economic activity, today's Q2 inflation report "should ease the central bank's concern about rising inflation risks in the country in May." While non-trade item data did bring a surprise to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it was small, and there were many details in the report showing that inflationary pressures were easing.