Crazy at the end? Revealing the secret of the US stock market soaring 777 points: Interest rates are bound to fall after two months of market pricing.

Wind · 08:13

周二美股再度上涨，$道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$和$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$再创新高，尤其是道指最高一度飙升777点，最终以大涨1.85%报收，市场涨势继续扩大至大型科技股之外。

美股继续交易即将降息

交易员们现在100%肯定美联储将在9月前降息。CME的FedWatch工具显示，美联储9月份将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前的5.25% - 5.5%下调0.25个百分点至5% - 5.25%的可能性为93.3%。

该工具称，9月份利率下调0.5个百分点的可能性为6.7%，因此一些交易员认为美联储将在7月底的会议上降息，并在9月份再次降息。综合起来，这是100%的降息几率。

促成这种变化的因素是上周公布的6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)，该指数较上月下降0.1%。这使得年通胀率降至3%，为三年来的最低水平。一个月前，9月份降息的几率约为70%。

CME的美联储观察工具是根据该交易所联邦基金期货合约的交易计算概率的，在该交易所，交易员押注于30天内的有效联邦基金利率水平。简单地说，这反映了交易员将资金投向何处。利率在9月份维持当前水平的实际概率不是零，但这意味着没有交易员愿意把钱押在这上面。

美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)最近的暗示也巩固了交易员的信念，即美联储将在9月前采取行动。周一，鲍威尔表示，由于紧缩政策的滞后效应，美联储不会等到通胀达到2%的目标利率后才开始降息。

他说，美联储正在寻找“更大的信心”，即通货膨胀率将回到2%的水平。鲍威尔说:“能够增强这种信心的是更加良好的通货膨胀数据，最近我们已经得到了一些这样的数据。”

美联储将于7月31日和9月18日再次决定利率。它不会在8月份召开利率会议。

道指已开启补涨

今年以来道指涨幅明显小于纳指和标普500指数，Wind行情显示，截至7月16日，道指今年才上涨8.66%，纳指则大幅上涨23.3%遥遥领先，而标普500指数则上涨18.81%。随着降息预期临近，利好逐渐兑现，处于高位、涨幅巨大的纳指和标普500已上涨乏力了，因此道指开启补涨，而这是美股最后的疯狂吗？

最后的疯狂？

一旦美联储降息正式开始，美国经济基本面走弱，处于高位的美股估值必然会迎来回落，降息的利好难以抵制权益市场回归的大趋势。以最近两轮美联储降息周期来看，第一轮在2019年8月1日首次降息开始，一直到2020年3月16日最后一次降息结束。往上另外一轮则是从2007年9月18日开始首次降息至2008年12月16日最后一次降息结束。

Wind数据显示，两轮降息中美股全部出现大跌，而且道指跌幅都超过20%，纳指最大一次跌幅一度接近40%。而每轮降息中黄金都是大涨，尤其是2007~2008年那一轮美联储降息，COMEX黄金累计大涨超过15%。随着下半年越来越近的降息是否是压倒高位美股的“最后一根稻草”值得关注。

编辑/emily

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market rose again, setting a new high, especially the Dow Jones soaring by 777 points at its highest, and finally closed up 1.85%, with market momentum expanding beyond large technology stocks. The product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$And.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The US stock market continued trading and is about to cut interest rates.

Traders are 100% certain that the Fed will cut interest rates before September. CME's FedWatch tool showed that there is a 93.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower the target range for federal funds rate from the current 5.25%-5.5% to 5%-5.25% in September.

The tool said that there is a 6.7% chance of a 0.5 percentage point rate cut in September, so some traders believe that the Fed will cut rates at the end of July and again in September. Taken together, there is a 100% chance of a rate cut.

The factor that led to this change was the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced last week, which fell 0.1% from the previous month. This lowered the annual inflation rate to 3%, its lowest level in three years. A month ago, the probability of interest rate cuts in September was about 70%.

CME's FedWatch tool calculates probabilities based on trading in the exchange's federal funds futures contracts, where traders bet on effective federal funds rate levels within 30 days. In short, this reflects where traders are putting their money. The actual probability of keeping interest rates at current levels in September is not zero, but that means no trader is willing to bet on it.

Recent hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have also reinforced traders' belief that the Fed will act before September. On Monday, Powell said that the Fed would not wait until the inflation target rate of 2% was reached before cutting interest rates, due to the lagging effect of tight policy.

He said the Fed was looking for "more confidence," with data showing that inflation rates would return to 2%. Powell said: "Better inflation data can enhance this confidence, and we have recently received some of that data."

The Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates again on July 31 and September 18. It will not hold a rate meeting in August.

The Dow Jones has started to rebound. This year, the Dow Jones has risen significantly less than the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index. Wind quotes show that as of July 16, the Dow Jones has only risen 8.66% this year, while the Nasdaq has risen 23.3% and the S&P 500 index has risen 18.81%.

As the expectation of an interest rate cut approaches, bullishness gradually manifests itself. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500, which are at high levels and have risen greatly, have been weakly rising, so the Dow Jones has begun to catch up. And is this the final frenzy of the US stock market?

The last frenzy?

Once the Fed officially begins to cut interest rates, the fundamentals of the US economy will weaken, and valuations of high-priced US stocks will inevitably fall. It is worth noting whether the expected interest rate cut in the second half of the year will be the “last straw” for high-priced US stocks.

Looking at the two rounds of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the first one began on August 1, 2019 and lasted until March 16, 2020. The other one started from September 18, 2007, and ended with the last rate cut on December 16, 2008. Wind data shows that during the two rounds of interest rate cuts, all U.S. stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones falling by more than 20%, and the Nasdaq falling up to around 40%. However, gold rose sharply during each round of rate cuts, especially during the period when the Fed cut interest rates from 2007 to 2008, as COMEX gold rose by more than 15%.

As the probability of an interest rate cut in the second half of the year grows stronger, it is worth paying attention to whether this will be the final frenzy of the US stock market overwhelmed by high valuations.

Editor/Emily

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最后疯狂？美股狂飙777点揭秘：市场定价两个月后必然降息