Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated on Monday that he has no plans to leave his position before his term ends. This clear statement countered some of Trump's supporters who claimed that if the former president returned to the White House, Powell would quickly lose his job.

During an event on Monday, when asked if he planned to complete his term as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (which ends in 2026), Powell responded, "yes."

Many analysts believe that if Trump wins the election on November 5th, Powell's latest statement may sow the seeds for friction between him and Trump.

Trump, who survived a shooting incident last Saturday, is currently gaining in popularity. According to data from some gambling markets, Trump's chances of entering the White House in November have now reached nearly 70%. Some industry insiders are concerned that if Trump does make a comeback, some of the 'old scores' between him and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may be reopened.

Powell was originally appointed by Obama as a Fed board member, but it was Trump, who now finds Powell "unsightly," who ultimately chose him to lead the Federal Reserve -- Powell took over as Chairman of the Fed in early 2018.

But shortly thereafter, the Federal Reserve Chairman, who was personally placed in power by Trump, became a thorn in the 'sage king's' side - Trump severely criticized Powell's rate hike in his first year as Fed Chairman. Trump even discussed "firing" the Fed Chairman, although his aides later said that Trump was likely not empowered to do so. But this did not stop Trump from continuing to threaten Powell throughout his entire presidency.

By contrast, while the Democrats have had many grievances with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes over the past few years, Biden has never openly criticized Powell.

Focus on the outside: will political pressure affect Fed decisions?

Based on current tenure timelines, the next U.S. president will have the opportunity to select the next Fed Chairman.

On Monday, when asked if he would continue to serve as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve if the next President reappointed him, Powell chose to evade the question, saying, "I have nothing to tell you today."

Trump has already stated that he will not reappoint Powell. Some of Trump's loyal supporters even predict that Powell will resign shortly after Trump's second term begins.

Steve Bannon, Trump's former strategic chief who is still serving his sentence in prison, recently said in an interview that he believes that after the election results are announced, Powell will resign.

Peter Navarro, Trump's former trade adviser, has also been imprisoned for refusing to cooperate with the Congressional investigation into the January 6th attack. He too said in an interview that he expects Powell to "resign in the first hundred days of Trump's new term."

Although Powell's response on Monday makes these bold predictions look ridiculous, as many American media outlets have previously revealed, Trump's team does seem to be planning action against the Federal Reserve. In April of this year, local media in the United States broke the news that Trump's allies were drafting a proposal that could seriously weaken the Fed's independence and give the President direct control over interest rate setting.

Some insiders are still concerned that the upcoming US election may have an impact on Fed decisions in the coming months.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, and others stated in a recent report that although their benchmark forecast still predicts that the Fed will cut rates for the first time in September, there are sufficient reasons to support the Fed's action at the FOMC meeting in July. One of the three reasons they cited was the belief that the Fed has a strong motivation to avoid lowering interest rates in the last two months of the US presidential election campaign.

According to the schedule, the Fed's monetary policy meeting in September is scheduled for September 17th to 18th, just about seven weeks before the November 5th election.

However, Powell stated in his speech on Monday, "we will not consider political factors. We will not politicize our decisions."

Powell also mentioned in his speech that the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday was "a sad day for our country," and he wished Trump all the best.

Edited by Jeffrey