Source: Sina US Stocks On the evening of the 20th Beijing time, the US stocks opened mixed on Thursday, and then the three major indexes rose slightly. Nvidia hit another new high and consolidated its position as the largest market cap company in the US stock market. Initial jobless claims in the United States last week were higher than expected, and real estate and manufacturing indexes were below expectations. Until the manuscript was submitted, the S&P 500 index rose 0.29% to break through 5500 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.37%, and the Dow Jones Index rose 0.13%. The US stock market was closed on Wednesday due to the June holiday (Juneteenth). On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq both set new historical highs. The US stock market is expected to record gains this week. The S&P 500 index set its 31st new high this year on Tuesday. Due to the continued AI craze and the resilience of economic growth, it is expected to continue to support corporate profits, especially in the technology sector. Nvidia's stock price hit another new high. The AI darling and chip maker surpassed Microsoft last Tuesday and became the world's most valuable company. Against the background of the continued AI craze boosting the stock market, Nvidia's stock price has risen 174% from 2024 to date. As Nvidia consolidates its position as a thriving market leader in the AI theme market, its market value has surpassed that of Apple in early June. "Nvidia is still the most important stock in the world," said Chris Weston, head of Pepperstone research, in a report. However, Weston warned that the overall performance of the index market was poor, and the market participation was mediocre, suggesting that the rise was built on an unstable foundation. "The fact remains that the market is still very bullish on AI-related stocks and large tech stocks, and given the lack of clear immediate risks, the path of least resistance is for stock indices to rise." While consumer spending has shown signs of slowing and hints at potential economic weakness, investors continue to flock to the AI giant. The rise of Nvidia has also boosted its peers. Chip maker Broadcom has surged more than 60% from 2024 to date. Scott Chronert, Citigroup's US stock strategy director, wrote in a report on Tuesday: "We still believe that Wall Street (the S&P 500) is diverging from the corporate sector (the foundation of the US economy), is this strange? There is no doubt that generative AI is currently infiltrating the US stock market environment as a sustained driver of growth." Nevertheless, some commentators have noted that while this doldrums has not yet fully affected the US stock market, which repeatedly sets new highs, the rise lacks breadth beyond the largest tech companies, and this situation may continue to deteriorate. Thomas Fitzpatrick, managing director of R.J. O'Brien and Associates, said, "There's a feeling of AI theme that's very similar to the 2000-2001 US stock style, but as we know, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. But for now, it's hard to stop the speeding train." Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said that due to three major unfavorable factors that will suppress stock prices, the US stock market will see a correction. This Wall Street veteran pointed out that so far this year, the stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index up 15% from 2024. However, he predicted that the benchmark index would fall 5% due to unfavorable interest rates, inflation, and stock valuations. The inflation rate is declining but still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leading Fed officials to expect only one interest rate cut by year-end. As for Thursday's economic data, the initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States were almost unchanged last week, and the data for the previous week rose sharply. These data tend to fluctuate before and after holidays and school vacations. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that as of June 15, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 5,000 to 238,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits as of June 8 rose to 1.82 million. In the past year, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has remained low as the labor market has shown resilience in the face of high prices and high interest rates. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims rose to 232,750, the highest level since September last year.
On the evening of the 16th Beijing time, the US stock market showed mixed trends. As of press time,the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)Up 1.22%,the NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)Down 0.3%, S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)Up 0.18%. USA June retail sales are in line with last month but exceed expectations. Investors are weighing new financial reports from Bank of America and others. Analysts say small cap stocks will benefit from the recent sector rotation.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow hitting a record high. Investors are betting that the attempted assassination of former President Trump will have a favorable impact on the Democratic presidential candidate and his party in the November election. A Republican victory in the polls may provide investors with favorable tax and fiscal policies.$Kyocera Corporation (6570.JP)$ The concept of AI is generally down, dropping nearly 2%.
Signs of recent sector rotation continue, with market funds continuing to shift towards small-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose 1.8% on Monday.
Tom Lee, research director of Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes that the sharp rise in small-cap stock indexes last week was just the beginning of a long-term sector rotation.Example of such index is E-Mini Russell 2000 index (.RUT.US).It rose 6% last week. He said: "The rise of small-cap stocks that began last week will exceed the rise from October to December last year-when the Russell 2000 index rose for more than eight weeks and accumulated a gain of nearly 30%."
Lee says small caps appear to be relatively oversold, and their valuations are even lower now.
Tom Lee, managing director of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said the sharp rise in small-cap stock indices last week is just the beginning of a long-term sector rotation. Last week's small-cap stock rally is expected to exceed the October-December rally last year, when the Russell 2000 index rose for more than eight weeks and accumulated a nearly 30% rise. Lee said that small-cap stocks look relatively more oversold and even lower in valuation. He said, "We believe that this sector rotation may last for about 10 weeks, during which the Russell 2000 index may rise by up to 40%." He also pointed out that the decline in the consumer price index in June is giving the green light for the recovery of small-cap stocks.
Bank of America's second-quarter revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, but net interest income (NII) declined. The company also said that this key indicator of NII will rebound before the end of the year.
Data shows that as one of the bank's largest sources of income, NII fell to $13.7 billion in the three months ended June, lower than analysts' expected $13.8 billion. Credit loss provisions were $1.5 billion, higher than $1.1 billion in the same period last year.
US June retail sales were flat compared to the previous month, in line with expectations of a 0.3% decline, and a 0.1% increase from the previous month. US June retail sales (excluding autos) rose 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase in three months, and higher than expected 0.1%, and lower than the 0.1% decrease from the previous month, indicating that consumer spending at the end of second quarter has resilience.
Specific data: US June retail sales were $704.324 billion, compared to $703.088 billion in the previous month; core retail sales in June were $573.573 billion, compared to $569.035 billion in the previous month.
Excluding the impact of cyber attacks on car dealers, US June retail sales recorded the largest increase in three months, indicating strong consumer spending at the end of the second quarter.
Excluding car sales, US June core retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month. Due to a 2% decline in revenue from auto dealers, total sales remained unchanged. This data runs counter to the trend of gradual slowing of consumer growth in recent months, indicating that the main driving force of the US economy is still playing a role as inflation falls and the Fed approaches the start of rate cuts.
This data runs counter to the trend of gradual slowing of consumer growth in recent months, which indicates that the primary driving force of the US economy is still contributing as inflation falls and the Fed approaches rate cuts. However, the sales outlook is not optimistic. From the profit reports of major retailers and manufacturers, it can be seen that families are becoming more price-sensitive and paying attention to basic needs.
Analysts said that US June retail sales held steady and the basic trend was strong, which may boost the second-quarter economic growth forecast. However, the sales outlook is not optimistic. From the profit reports of major retailers and manufacturers, it can be seen that families are becoming more price-sensitive and paying attention to basic needs.
$PepsiCo (PEP.US)$CEO last week said low-income consumers were struggling to make ends meet and had many strategies to make their budgets last until the end of the month. Most families have exhausted the extra savings accumulated during the new crown epidemic and are burdened with a large amount of credit card debt, which becomes even more unaffordable as interest rates rise. As the labor market cools, wage growth is also slowing.
Despite this, the pace of consumer spending is enough to sustain economic expansion. Before retail data was released, the market expected second-quarter economic growth to be around 2% (first quarter economic growth rate was 1.4%).
Some analysts believe that the retail sales data weakened the rationale for the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive easing policies.
The US retail sales data for June broke a series of recent bad reports, as it showed that all economic activities in June easily exceeded expectations, especially in the control group, which grew 0.9% in the month, while the market expected 0.2%. In addition to some upward revisions to May data, a reasonable strong report is expected, indicating that consumers still have spending power.
As previously mentioned, this should reduce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year. Traders may not react to the unexpected rise in import prices, but given the new government's views on the dollar or import taxes, this may also be an issue to consider.
Bitcoin (BTC.CC)Supported by market speculation, the reason is that the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election has further increased. Trump is increasingly supporting the crypto industry to win voter support, which means that cryptos may become a popular symbol of 'Trump transactions'.
Focus stocks
The concept of AI is generally down, dropping nearly 2%.Palantir fell by 0.9%, continuing to decline for the third day, and the lowest closing price since May 17th. ,Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US),Dell Technologies (DELL.US),$Micron Technology(MU.US)$,The stock of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) will split 1:10 after market close on June 7 (Friday), and the price per share will drop to around $100. The lower price will make NVIDIA more likely to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. ,The semiconductor stocks fell in general. It fell more than 2%.$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$The concept of AI is generally down, dropping nearly 2%.
Golden industrial concept rises$Harmony Gold Mining(HMY.US)$Increased by nearly 8%.drdgold (DRD.US)up nearly 7%,$Gold Fields(GFI.US)$rose more than 4%.
$UnitedHealth Group (UNH.US)$Rises more than 3%, Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations.
Bank of AmericaRising more than 3%, Q2 total revenue of 25.38 billion US dollars exceeded expectations, net interest income will rise to about 14.5 billion US dollars in the fourth quarter.
$Shopify(SHOP.US)$Rising more than 6%, Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the company from neutral to buy and raised its target price to $82.
$Trump Media & Technology Group(DJT.US)$Falling more than 5%, it was up more than 31% in the previous trading day.
Goldman Sachs sets target price of $135 for 12 months and include it in the 'Conviction Buy' list，Goldman Sachs issued a report stating that they had a team meeting with Nvidia CFO Colette Kress earlier, discussing the development of generative AI models and future capital spending plans. Goldman Sachs believes that the meeting confirmed its view that the generative AI spending cycle will continue, Nvidia will maintain its leading position through rapid innovation, and reiterate its 'buy' rating, which was listed as a 'Conviction Buy' on the US stock market. The target price was set at $135 for the next 12 months.The stock of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) will split 1:10 after market close on June 7 (Friday), and the price per share will drop to around $100. The lower price will make NVIDIA more likely to be included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The company estimates that Nvidia's cloud solution customers will indicate an increase in capital expenditures in the next two years, and Nvidia's partners and peers, such as AMD and SK Hynix, will provide constructive data to promote a new round of positive profit revisions and income growth. It is an AI infrastructure tide that the company can maintain its leading position because of its strong foundation scale, competing ability, better supply channels, and ability to respond to the real-time demand of large enterprises in generative AI.
The company plans to recruit nearly 800 new employees, and just three months ago, CEO Musk hurriedly ordered the largest round of layoffs in the company's history. According to analysis, job postings have appeared on Tesla's recruitment pages in recent weeks, from AI experts to more ordinary service positions.
In addition, according to sources, iPhone accounts for more than half of Apple's sales in India. Apple's rapid growth in India is due to economic expansion and the growth of the middle class. Although Apple's market share in India is currently only 2%, its growth potential is enormous. However, Apple is also facing an investigation in India. The Indian Competition Commission (CCI) found in an investigation that Apple engaged in 'abuse of conduct and practices' by taking advantage of its dominant position in the iOS app store market.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$AMD has officially confirmed that it will continue to advance the high-performance product line after Zen 5 and Zen 5c, and launch Zen 6 and Zen 6c cores. AMD has not yet unlocked the full picture of the Zen 5 and Zen 5c cores, but has confirmed the next generation of Zen architecture core solutions, which will be used in desktops, laptops, handheld devices, servers and other devices.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$This surge in Tesla's shares came as more South Korean customers showed their preference for electric vehicles. Analysts said the company's prospects in Korea were 'very favorable' given the relatively high disposable income among the country's population. The shares also opened 5.5% higher in Hong Kong and surged more than 7% in Japan.
According to industry media reports, Apple sales in the year ended March this year increased by about 33% year-on-year, reaching a new historical high of nearly 8 billion US dollars.
Apple's quarterly financial report, submitted to the Federal Election Commission on Monday evening, showed that Musk had not donated to an organization called America PAC yet. According to informed sources, iPhone accounted for more than half of Apple's sales in India. Apple's rapid growth in India is due to economic expansion and the growth of the middle class.
As previously mentioned, this is expected to reduce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year. Traders may not react to the unexpected rise in import prices, but given the new government's views on the dollar or import taxes, this may also be an issue to consider.
The surge is due to market speculation that the possibility of Trump winning the US presidential election is further increasing. Trump is increasingly supporting the crypto industry to win voter support, which means that cryptos may become a popular symbol of 'Trump transactions'.
This surge in Tesla's shares came as more South Korean customers showed their preference for electric vehicles. Analysts said the company's prospects in Korea were 'very favorable' given the relatively high disposable income among the country's population. The shares also opened 5.5% higher in Hong Kong and surged more than 7% in Japan.
Apple denies this, claiming that its market share in India is negligible, while Android's market share is over 90%. If finally determined to be illegal, Apple may face fines and need to adjust its business practices.
The UK antitrust regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), said on Tuesday that it has launched a formal antitrust investigation into Microsoft (MSFT.US)The UK antitrust regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), said on Tuesday that it has launched a formal antitrust investigation into Inflection AI's transaction.
In March of this year, Microsoft agreed to pay $0.65 billion to Inflection AI, an AI startup, for the authorization of its AI software. In addition, Microsoft announced the hiring of Inflection AI's co-founders Mustafa Suleyman and Karén Simonyan, as well as most of the company's employees.
Alphabet, Google's parent company, is reportedly in deep negotiations over the acquisition of Wiz for about $23 billion. If the transaction is successful, it will be the largest acquisition in Alphabet's history. This acquisition will help push Alphabet's development in the field of cloud computing, which is an important and growing area, especially in the AI era of latent security concerns.
In addition, it was reported that Google offered a package worth about €0.47 billion ($0.512 billion) to a group of EU-based cloud computing companies in an attempt to disrupt their antitrust settlement with Microsoft, which allowed the American software giant to evade potentially expensive EU litigation.Please invest in American Software (AMSWA.US).Goldman Sachs traders joined the Wall Street frenzy in the second quarter, with same-store revenue exceeding expectations, despite the company's larger-than-expected wealth management business.
The European Cloud Infrastructure Services Providers Association (CISPE) dropped its complaint to the European Union's antitrust department about Microsoft's software licensing procedures last week, following an agreement for fairer access to the US company's technology. CISPE had previously argued that Microsoft bundled its commercial software with its Azure cloud service, making it difficult for customers to switch cloud providers.
Sources said on Tuesday that the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has requested further details on its hiring of executives and researchers from AI start-up Adept. This move highlights the FTC's increasing concern about combinations of AI-related transactions. Previously, the FTC had only conducted broader reviews of collaborations between large technology companies and well-known AI start-ups.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon announced at the end of June that it had reached a technology licensing agreement with AI start-up Adept, and that Adept's co-founders and some team members would join Amazon. Like Microsoft's investment in AI start-up Inflection AI, the Amazon-Adep transaction is also a disguised acquisition that aims to avoid antitrust scrutiny.
Morgan Stanley traders joined the Wall Street frenzy in the second quarter, with same-store revenue exceeding expectations, despite the company's larger-than-expected wealth management business.
In 23, the company's overall sales volume was 18,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, a significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products with a sales volume of 10-30 billion yuan is 4.01/12.88/0.06 billion yuan respectively.
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