Cryptocurrency dynamic tracking

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Trump and his deputy both voiced their support! Bitcoin temporarily broke through the psychological barrier of 0.065 million dollars. Is the cryptocurrency market expected to reach a turning point?

Futu News · Jul 16 19:23

一声枪响推动比特币大涨。

特朗普枪击事件的发生，不仅在美国政坛引发了极大的“地震”，也在金融市场引发了大波动。

投资者正在努力寻找“特朗普交易”的投资机会，这也推动了加密货币市场重燃热情。周六枪击事件后，比特币价格大幅上涨，一度冲破65000美元大关；体量第二的以太坊也一度突破3500美元。

港美股市场有哪些投资机会？

随着加密货币市场的热情被点燃，港美股市场与比特币相关的ETF以及概念股也随之爆发。

隔夜，$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$涨超18%，$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$涨超17%，$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$、$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$涨超15%，$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$涨近13%，$Coinbase (COIN.US)$涨超11%。

港股市场的加密货币ETF也有不错的表现，其中，$FA南方比特币 (03066.HK)$、$嘉实比特币 (03439.HK)$、$华夏比特币 (03042.HK)$、$博时比特币 (03008.HK)$昨日涨超10%，$FA南方以太币 (03068.HK)$、$嘉实以太币 (03179.HK)$、$博时以太币 (03009.HK)$、$华夏以太币 (03046.HK)$涨超9%。

特朗普及其副手双双力挺加密货币

事实上，作为非传统避险资产的加密货币是“特朗普交易”的重要组成部分。

特朗普在本轮竞选之初就确定了自己对加密货币市场的支持态度，此前还喊出“让加密货币都在美国制造”的口号，赢得了加密爱好者的支持。

为了巩固这一市场对他的支持，特朗普还计划于7月27日在比特币大会上发表讲话。目前，市场普遍预期，特朗普将在会议讲话中，为币圈投资者带来意外惊喜。可以说，饱受拜登政府严格审查政策“折磨”的加密行业，正在殷殷期盼特朗普的上台。

除此之外，当地时间7月15日，美国前总统特朗普宣布，俄亥俄州联邦参议员James David Vance将作为其竞选搭档，即副总统候选人，参加2024年的总统大选。

而James David Vance亦以支持加密货币的立场闻名，主因其积极的社交媒体发言和支持加密货币的投票记录，有关举动亦进一步反映特朗普支持加密货币的立场。

据相关资料显示，James David Vance在2023年10月提交的2022日历年强制性年度报告中披露，截至2022年，他拥有价值10万美元至25万美元的比特币，这些代币通过Coinbase持有。此外，其还持有比特币ETF $Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$。

此外，据Politico消息，JD Vance最近起草了一项法案，将改革美国对数字资产的监管方式，消息人士称，这项法案将比众议院6月份通过的一项法案更加有利于加密市场。

据悉，与众议院法案一样，JD Vance的计划将彻底改革美SEC和CFTC监管加密货币市场的方式，这对对华盛顿现行政策不满的加密货币公司和投资者来说是一个重大优先事项。

趁热打铁？以太坊ETF被曝下周二将于美国上市

除了“特朗普交易”火爆外，加密货币行业再次传出一个利好消息。

据媒体报道称美国证券交易委员会（SEC）已向准备推出以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）的资产管理公司发出最后指引。这些公司需在7月16日前提交最终发行说明书，以期在7月23日推出新的ETF产品。

彭博ETF分析师Eric Balchunas于X平台发文表示：“据悉SEC终于回复了发行人，要求他们在周三返回最终的S-1文件（包括费用），然后在周一收盘后申请生效，以便在7月23日星期二发行。”

他还指出，有趣的是，7月23日正好是本年度最大的比特币会议召开时间，特朗普本人也将出席这次会议，因爲加密货币已经成爲最大的政治话题之一。

市场预测以太坊ETF将吸引巨额资金流入。分析师预计，以太坊ETF会引起投资者的极大兴趣，推出后几个月内可能吸引高达100亿美元的新资金流入。MV Global 的执行合伙人 Tom Dunleavy 预测：

我们看到比特币的资金流入量达到150亿美元，我认为以太坊ETF的资金流入量可能在50亿到100亿美元之间。

加密市场后市怎么看？

渣打银行的分析师表示，美国总统选举是比特币价格的下一个关键催化剂，特朗普获胜可能将其推高至15万美元。

Conotoxia的市场分析师Grzegorz Drozdz则表示，最近几个月加密市场并不好过，我们目前正处于之前繁荣的资本流入这个市场的低迷之中，这可以通过稳定币的市值来衡量，这一指标在过去两个月里已冻结。

由于特朗普获胜的可能性增加，以及美国骚乱和不稳定的可能性降低，Drozdz现在看到市场中可能出现“信心的涌入”，这可能在未来几周对加密货币和比特币产生积极影响。

此外，从过往3次比特币减半结束后一年走势来看，比特币在减半后往往要经历约4个月震荡期，之后才出现大幅上涨。如果这种趋势继续下去，那么可能会看到比特币在夏季末开始攀升。

此外，伯恩斯坦研究公司的一份新报告表明，比特币挖矿行业正在形成一个非常有利的“金发姑娘情景（Goldilocks Scenario）”，其分析师Gautam Chhugani表示，比特币矿工的黄金时代即将到来，他撰写的报告概述了挖矿行业的几个有利因素：

1、投资者越来越接受比特币矿工的“上电时间”论点，将其视为充满活力的电力资产和更通用的数据中心设施。
2、挖矿芯片技术在美国正在不断创新，Block的最新3nm挖矿芯片和Core Scientific成为Block的主要客户。
3、比特币矿工和人工智能数据中心公司之间已经宣布了多项交易，其中包括与Core Scientific、Hut 8和Soluna Holdings的合作。

不过，虚拟货币市场风险巨大，时不时上演暴涨暴跌行情，投资需谨慎。

牛友们，

你们看好加密货币后续走势吗？

欢迎在评论区留下您的看法~

编辑/Somer

A gunshot propelled Bitcoin to soar.

The occurrence of the Trump shooting incident not only caused a huge earthquake in the US political circle, but also caused a major turmoil in the financial market.

Investors are trying to find investment opportunities for the "Trump Trade," which has also reignited interest in the cryptocurrency market. After the shooting incident on Saturday, the price of Bitcoin rose sharply, breaking through the $65,000 mark; the second-largest Ethereum also briefly surpassed $3,500.

What are the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong and US stock markets?

As the enthusiasm of the cryptocurrency market has been ignited, ETFs and concept stocks related to Bitcoin in the Hong Kong and US stock markets have also erupted.

Overnight,$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$rose more than 18%.$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$Increased by over 17%.$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$,$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$up over 15%, $TeraWulf (WULF.US)$up nearly 13%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$Up more than 11%.

Hong Kong's cryptocurrency ETFs have also performed well, including $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$,$Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$,$ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$,$Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (03008.HK)$up over 10% yesterday, $CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$,$Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$,$Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$,$ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$up over 9%.

Trump and his deputy are both backing cryptocurrencies.

In fact, as a non-traditional safe-haven asset, cryptocurrencies are an important component of the "Trump Trade."

At the beginning of this election campaign, Trump has already shown his support for the crypto industry. He even shouted the slogan of "making cryptocurrencies in America", winning the support of crypto enthusiasts.

In order to consolidate the market's support for him, Trump also plans to give a speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 27th. Currently, it is widely expected that Trump will bring some unexpected surprises to investors in the cryptocurrency industry during the speech. It can be said that the crypto industry, which has been tormented by the strict regulatory policies of the Biden administration, is earnestly hoping for Trump to come back to power.

In addition, on July 15th local time, former US President Trump announced that Ohio federal senator James David Vance will be his running mate, the candidate for Vice President, in the 2024 presidential election.

James David Vance is also known for his support of cryptocurrencies, primarily due to his active social media posts and voting record supporting cryptocurrencies. This move further reflects Trump's stance on supporting cryptocurrencies.

According to relevant information, in the mandatory annual report for the 2022 calendar year submitted by James David Vance in October 2023, as of 2022, he owned between $100,000 to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin tokens, which are held via Coinbase. In addition, he also holds a Bitcoin ETF. $Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC.US)$.

In addition, according to Politico, JD Vance recently drafted a bill to reform the way the US regulates digital assets. Insiders say that this bill will be more favorable to the cryptocurrency market than a bill passed by the House in June.

Reportedly, like the House bill, JD Vance's plan will completely reform the way the US SEC and CFTC regulate the cryptocurrency market, which is a major priority for cryptocurrency companies and investors dissatisfied with Washington's current policies.

Seize the opportunity? The Ethereum ETF is reportedly going to be listed in the United States next Tuesday.

In addition to the hot "Trump Trading", there is another bullish news in the cryptocurrency industry.

According to media reports, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued final guidelines to asset management companies preparing to launch Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These companies need to submit final prospectuses by July 16 in order to launch new ETF products on July 23.

Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, wrote on X platform: "It is reported that the SEC has finally replied to the issuers and asked them to return the final S-1 document (including fees) on Wednesday, and then apply for effectiveness after Monday's market close so that it can be issued on July 23 Tuesday."

He also pointed out that interestingly, July 23 happens to be the time of the biggest bitcoin conference of the year, and Trump himself will attend, as cryptocurrencies have become one of the biggest political topics.

Market forecasts show that Ethereum ETFs will attract huge capital inflows. Analysts predict that the Ethereum ETF will generate great interest among investors and may attract as much as $10 billion in new inflows within the first few months of its launch. Tom Dunleavy, Managing Partner at MV Global predicts:

We see an inflow of 15 billion US dollars into Bitcoin, and I believe the inflow of funds into Ethereum ETF may be between 5 billion and 10 billion US dollars.

How do you see the future of the cryptocurrency market?

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank said that the US presidential election is the next key catalyst for Bitcoin prices, and Trump's victory could push it up to $0.15 million.

Grzegorz Drozdz, a market analyst at Conotoxia, said that the cryptocurrency market has not been good in recent months. We are currently in a downturn of capital inflows to this market from the previous boom, which can be measured by the market value of stablecoins, which has been frozen in the past two months.

Due to the increased likelihood of Trump's victory and the decreased likelihood of American riots and instability, Drozdz now sees the possibility of "confidence influx" in the market, which may have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

In addition, looking at the trend of Bitcoin's performance in the year after the past three halvings, Bitcoin often experiences about four months of volatility after halving before a sharp increase. If this trend continues, we may see Bitcoin start to climb at the end of summer.

In addition, a new report from Bernstein Research shows that the Bitcoin mining industry is forming a very favorable "Goldilocks Scenario", with analyst Gautam Chhugani saying that the golden age of Bitcoin miners is coming. His report outlines several favorable factors for the mining industry:

1. Investors are increasingly accepting the miner's "up time" argument, seeing it as a vibrant electricity asset and more versatile data center facility.
2. Mining chip technology is constantly innovating in the United States, with Block's latest 3nm mining chip and Core Scientific becoming Block's main customer.
3. Bitcoin miners and AI data center companies have announced several transactions, including partnerships with Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Soluna Holdings.

However, the virtual currency market is highly risky and occasionally experiences volatile fluctuations. Investment needs to be cautious.

Mooers,

Do you bullish on the future development of cryptocurrencies?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section~

Editor/Somer

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