The cost of shipping a 40-foot standard container of toys, auto parts or other goods from Shanghai to New York has now soared to nearly $10,000, which has further intensified the frustration of American importers and prompted some experts to believe that the shipping market is in a bubble.

The Drewry World Container Index shows that as of last Thursday (July 11th), the spot freight price for a 40-foot container on the Shanghai to New York route had reached $9,387.

Although this freight is still below the peak of about $16,000 in the early stages of the epidemic, when locked-down consumers went on a shopping frenzy, causing freight rates to skyrocket, the current figure is already more than twice as high as in February.

In addition to the furthest route, the container freight index for the Shanghai to the US West Coast (Los Angeles) has also soared above $8,100 this month. According to Drewry, the current price of the trading route is about 60% of the peak stage (12400 USD per 40-foot container) of the epidemic.

Industry experts believe that the main reason for the rise in shipping prices is still the missile and drone attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels, which have forced a large number of ships to avoid the Suez Canal, a trade shortcut. The alternative route around Africa takes longer, so fleets need to travel longer distances and deploy more ships to transport goods.

This has led to a shortage of ships, interruptions and delays in cargo plans, and has also pushed up the cost of marine transportation, which accounts for about 80% of international trade.

Some US retailers and other shippers' coping strategies are to import in advance - stock up before the busy "peak" season of goods import, such as student return, Halloween and Christmas, but the surge in demand in a short period of time has also intensified the rise in shipping rates.

The trend of shipping freight is muddled.

Some American importers who still remember the previous round of inflation-driven surge in maritime costs are now concerned that container freight rates will rise further in the future.

Greg Davidson, CEO of Lalo, said that there has never been transparency on the actual driving factors of shipping prices, only assumptions. The company sells stylish baby high chairs online and in Pottery Barn Kids stores.

He said, "The pricing of container freight is like a black box, and all shippers, big and small, in his industry network are currently preparing for freight rates to rise to $0.02 million. "

Davidson explained that part of the reason is that people are concerned that if the Republican presidential candidate Trump wins the November US election, the former president may impose comprehensive tariffs on imported goods. Importers often rush to ship goods before the tariffs are implemented, causing freight rates to skyrocket.

Recently, the self-driving travel platform Luobu Kuaipao under its operation has become popular, driving Baidu's Hong Kong stocks to surge by more than 12% on 10th, reaching the highest point in over a month.$A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S Unsponsored ADR (AMKBY.US)$Major shipping companies such as A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have raised their profit forecasts because strong demand and higher rates have provided support for their performance.

However, some professionals also believe that there may be a bubble behind the current high shipping prices. Simon Heaney, senior manager of Drewry's container research, believes that "this is a bubble that will eventually burst" when discussing container freight prices.

Heaney said that clients surveyed by the consulting company expect prices to fall in the first half of next year.

Andy Chu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank's research division, pointed out in a client note that "it is difficult to understand the extent and speed of the rise in freight rates. The decline in new orders data for manufacturing companies' customers in May - a data that has always been closely related to container demand - should break this trend, and the decline in demand may quickly push down prices."

He pointed out, "If demand cannot be sustained, then freight rates may quickly normalize."

Editor/ping