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特朗普获胜将刺激经济?经济学家:或引发大规模再融资热潮及创纪录房屋销售

Will Trump's victory stimulate the economy? Economists warn that it may trigger a large-scale refinancing boom and record home sales.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jul 16 10:59

Several economists are attempting to understand the potential effects of Trump's re-election from various aspects such as interest rates, tax cuts, house prices, and inflation.

Many Americans who are not satisfied with the current economy will be looking forward to betting on the 2024 presidential election. The real estate industry and other industries in the United States are speculating about the impact of Trump's re-election. Several economists are attempting to understand the potential effects of re-election from various aspects such as interest rates, tax cuts, house prices, and inflation.

Marty Harlee, President and CEO of First Trust Financial, expects Trump to propose a rate cut to maintain rapid economic growth.

Harlee said, "If Trump wins the upcoming election, we will see another large-scale refinancing boom and record home sales, and lowering interest rates will also drive growth in all other industries."

Dennis Shirshikov, Professor of Finance, Economics, and Accounting at the City University of New York, said that the Trump administration's economic policy may focus on deregulation and tax cuts. These measures can stimulate economic growth, increase disposable income for many Americans, and benefit the real estate market by increasing housing demand.

Shirshikov said: "For example, the 2017 tax and employment law signed by Trump in his first term resulted in increased after-tax income for many individuals and businesses, providing more funding for real estate investment and purchasing."

Katyna Odarchenko, a political strategist with a real estate license in Maryland, said that as the cost of living and affordability become major concerns for many Americans, housing and construction issues have received more attention in the political arena.

Odarchenko said,"Donald Trump's 2024 campaign includes several measures related to the real estate market and the construction industry, which are built on the policy foundation of his previous term."

In his first term, Trump was committed to increasing home ownership, extending eviction bans during the pandemic, and proposing the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Odarchenko said:"These efforts have an impact on future homebuyers and the entire real estate market. His government also introduced tax reforms, such as establishing opportunity zones to stimulate investment in underdeveloped areas, and limiting exemptions for property, income, and sales taxes, which have had different effects on homeowners nationwide."

If Trump is re-elected, the real estate market may be affected. Harlee said that if interest rates fall, house prices will rise, and available supply will decrease," Overall, interest rates and the real estate market often perform well during Republican rule, and I think it can be said with some certainty that this will also be the case if Trump is re-elected."

Shirshikov said that deregulation and tax cuts can stimulate economic activity, but it may also lead to inflation or cause the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation. This could make mortgage loans more expensive and reduce housing affordability.

He said, "The Trump presidency is characterized by violent market fluctuations, partly due to his unconventional approach to policy and communication. This unpredictability will bring uncertainty to the real estate market and cause potential buyers and investors to hesitate."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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