The company announced the 2024 semi-annual results forecast.
According to the company's announcement, in the first half of 2024, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.527-0.583 billion yuan, an increase of 90%-110% over the previous year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.501-0.557 billion yuan, an increase of 91% to 112% over the previous year. Looking at the 24Q2 single quarter, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.242-0.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199%-268%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.23-0.286 billion yuan, an increase of 214%-291% year-on-year. Based on the median of the range, the company achieved net profit to mother of 0.555 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%, net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 0.529 billion yuan, an increase of 101% year on year; 24Q2 achieved net profit of 0.27 billion yuan to mother in a single quarter, an increase of 234% year on year, and net profit from non-return to mother of 0.258 billion yuan, an increase of 253% year on year.
The company's core business lines all achieved rapid growth in the first half of the year.
At median, the company achieved net profit of 0.55 billion yuan in 24H1. In terms of net profit margin, on the one hand, considering that the company's inventory digestion in 2023 made terminal net sales higher than actual revenue, leading to an inflated expense ratio (low profit margin), and the 24Q1 quarterly expense confirmation pressure is less, based on the above logic, it is reasonably estimated that the 24H1 net profit margin may be between the 2023 net profit margin and the 24Q1 net profit margin. Therefore, if estimated at 35%, the company's 24H1 revenue is about 1.57 billion yuan. This is about 0.83 billion yuan, an increase of about 12% over Q1. That's an increase of about 89%. According to the product structure, the 24H1 nephrology business revenue is estimated to be about 0.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 90% + over the previous year, and the total revenue from liver disease and critical illness is about 0.3 billion yuan, an increase of about 100% + over the previous year.
The inflection point of the company's operations has been reached, and continued high growth can be expected.
According to the company announcement, the company's external policy environment improved to a certain extent in the first half of 2024. The company continues to make full use of its technological and market leadership in the field of hemoperfusion. The business development trend in the fields of kidney disease, liver disease, critical illness, etc. is good, and the company's revenue has increased year-on-year. The company carried out various business activities based on the principle of increasing efficiency and reducing costs. The increase in production scale effectively reduced the unit production cost, while the cost ratio declined year-on-year during the period, so the company's net profit side achieved a significant year-on-year increase.
Investment advice:
Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 40.09 yuan. We expect the company's revenue growth rates from 2024 to 2026 to be 108.5%, 33.6%, and 31.9%, respectively, with outstanding net profit growth rates of 147.2%, 32.4%, and 30.0%, respectively; maintaining the investment rating given to Buy-A, the target price for 6 months is 40.09 yuan, which is equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 30X in 2024.
Risk warning: Uncertainty in medical industry policies; uncertainty about the release of new products; uncertainty about increasing penetration rate.