According to the website of the National Development and Reform Commission on July 15th, in order to coordinate the low-carbon transformation of existing coal-fired units and the construction of new low-carbon coal-fired units, improve the clean and efficient utilization level of coal, accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system, and help achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently issued the "Action Plan for Low-Carbon Transformation and Construction of Coal-Fired Power Plants (2024-2027)".
The "Action Plan" requires that by 2025, the first batch of low-carbon transformation and construction projects for coal-fired power plants should be fully started, and a batch of low-carbon coal-fired power generation technologies should be transformed and applied; the carbon emissions per kWh of related projects will be reduced by about 20% compared with the average carbon emissions level of the same type of coal-fired units in 2023, which is significantly lower than the carbon emissions level of the current advanced coal-fired units, and can provide useful experience for the clean and low-carbon transformation of coal-fired power generation. By 2027, the low-carbon power generation technology of coal-fired power plants will be further expanded, and the construction and operation costs of related projects will be significantly reduced; the carbon emissions per kWh of related projects will be reduced by about 50% compared with the average carbon emissions level of the same type of coal-fired units in 2023, which is close to the carbon emissions level of natural gas power generation units, and has a strong leading role in promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of coal-fired power generation.
According to the prediction of the State Grid Corporation of China, the peak load in 2024 will increase by about 0.1 billion kW, reaching around 1.45 billion kW.
Even though the coal-fired power generation may reach its peak, under the pressure of continuous growth in peak load, the development trend of "increasing capacity and reducing quantity" may emerge, and the growth in installed capacity is expected to continue.
Guotou Securities believes that compared with the performance volatility of traditional thermal power, the integration of coal and power generation enables coal mines and thermal power plants to establish a complementary and long-term mechanism of shared interests and shared risks, reduce the operational risks caused by fluctuations in coal prices, ensure the long-term and stable supply of fuel for power plants, and have higher performance stability and low-volatility dividend attributes.
Related companies in coal and power generation integration:
China Shenhua Energy (01088): a leading company in China's coal industry, with coal-fired power generation as its main business. As of the end of 2023, the company has installed 43.164 million kW of coal-fired power generation capacity, and 78% of its power generation business is supplied by its own coal business. In 2023, the company's sales volume of coal for internal coal sales reached 74.6 million tons, accounting for 16.6% of the total sales volume of coal.