Incident: On July 15, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual performance forecast. 24H1 revenue is expected to be 2.616-2.718 billion yuan, up 28-33% year on year; net profit to mother is 1.338-1.39 billion yuan, up 30-35% year on year; net profit without return to mother is 1.229-1.283 billion yuan, up 36-42% year on year.
Q2 Performance continues to increase, and performance inflection points continue to be verified.
In terms of median value, the company's Q2 revenue was 1.5 billion yuan, up 30.2% year on year, up 29.2% month on month, and Q2 net profit was 0.8 billion yuan, up 31.1% year on year, up 39.9% month on month; after deducting non-net profit of 0.74 billion yuan, up 32.5% year on year and 41.7% month on month. Performance continues to increase, mainly because the company continues to improve enterprise communication solutions, make every effort to expand sales channels, and continue to forge a long-term competitive advantage. At the same time, downstream demand continues to improve marginally. The median H1 revenue/net profit growth rate of the company is 31%/32%, which is higher than the company's 24-year equity incentive revenue/net profit growth rate of 20%/20%, which is approximately equal to the company's 24-year business partner growth target of 30%/30%, and can be expected to achieve the target throughout the year.
On a median basis, the company's H1 expected net interest rate of 51.1%, an increase of 0.8 pct over the previous year. The increase in the company's Q2 profitability may be due to: (1) the continued progress of conference and headset products towards advanced intelligence, or an increase in the gross profit margin of the product; (2) the company mainly exports to overseas markets and is denominated in US dollars. Fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate have a positive impact on the company's profits. The estimated impact of non-recurring profit and loss on current net profit during the reporting period is approximately $0.108 billion (according to the company's 21-23 annual report, the main project is the profit and loss of investment or management entrusted to others).
Each product line has maintained a steady pace of progress, and its competitiveness has been further consolidated.
In 24 years, the company's desktop communication terminals have achieved marginal improvement and healthy growth. For the second and third growth curves, the company will mainly launch next-generation smart conference terminal products such as professional audio and video conferencing tablets, conference room series products, and core cameras/microphones/speakers. The conference products can cover all scenarios and are equipped with AI technology. At the same time, headset products will also launch new products in the wired, DECT wireless, and Bluetooth wireless categories. BH series headsets continue to upgrade and obtain good channel verification. The positive trend of improving business continuity was further consolidated and strengthened.
Investment advice: Downstream demand is high, and the company's core competitiveness is remarkable. The second and third curves are expected to open up room for growth. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 2.673 billion yuan/3.465 billion/ 4.426 billion yuan in 24-26 years, corresponding PE of 18x/14x/11x. The company's PE valuation center has been 39x in the past five years. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: New product expansion falls short of expectations, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, hybrid office progress falls short of expectations, etc.