The three major Hong Kong stock indexes fluctuated downward all day. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 3% in the afternoon, while the Hang Seng Index was precariously holding onto the 18,000-point mark. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% or 277.44 points to 18015.94 points.
According to the WiseNews App, the three major Hong Kong stock indexes fluctuated downward all day. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 3% in the afternoon, while the Hang Seng Index was precariously holding onto the 18,000-point mark. As of the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% or 277.44 points to 18015.94 points, with a total turnover of HKD 91.147 billion; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.7% to 6421.67 points; and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.9% to 3672.58 points.
Soochow Securities research reports pointed out that the downside risk of Hong Kong stocks in the future has a bottom. It is mainly based on: first, the risk of macroeconomic downturn has been released in stages; second, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still cheap enough; third, although the Fed has repeatedly postponed the interest rate cut, global investors have voted with their feet, and it is expected that the interest rate cut cycle has begun. Especially the recent inflation data show a cooling trend.
Blue chip performance
China Shenhua Energy(01088) has rebounded significantly. As of the close, it rose by 2.63% to HKD 35.15 with a turnover of HKD 0.791 billion, contributing 4.9 points to the Hang Seng Index. Daiwa upgraded China Shenhua from "hold" to"outperform", mainly because of the state-owned enterprise theme, continuous production exceeding expectations, and stable trends in coal average selling price. The report pointed out that in the upcoming performance release on August 31, the bank expected that the management may raise the performance guidelines, and the coal price prospects will become a focus of investors' attention this year given the strong hydroelectric performance.
In respect of other blue chips, Zhongsheng Hldg(00881) rose by 3.14% to HKD 13.12, contributing 0.52 points to the Hang Seng Index; Sinopec(00386) rose by 1.22% to HKD 4.97, contributing 2.35 points to the Hang Seng Index; Chow Tai Fook(01929) fell by 4.51% to HKD 8.25, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 1.24 points; and Sino Biopharm(01177) fell by 4.5% to HKD 2.76, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 2.39 points.
Hot sectors
On the market, large technology stocks all went low, most real estate performance forecasts were under pressure, several key indicators continued to bottom, and mainland real estate stocks collectively went low; macau gambling revenue was slightly weak at the opening, and Macau casino stocks were generally under pressure; home appliances, aviation/airlines, dining, apple supplier, and auto stocks all fell. On the other hand, virtual currencies rose across the board, with digital currency ETFs performing well throughout the day; interest rate cut expectations supported gold prices, and golden industrial concept stocks performed well; coal industrial concept, heavy equipment, and theater stocks rose.
1. Digital currency ETFs rose across the board. As of the close, the Foresight Bitcoin(03008) rose by 10.44% to HKD 49.1; CSOP Bitcoin(03439) rose by 10.29% to HKD 7.88; Huatai Bitcoin(03042) rose by 10.23% to HKD 7.865; and Huatai Ethereum(03046) rose by 9.41% to HKD 8.2.
Former US President Donald Trump was the victim of an unsuccessful assassination attempt. After being shot, the probability of Trump's re-election as president increased to 66.5%. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IGAustralia Pty, said that the attempted assassination had increased the chances of Trump's re-election and gave Bitcoin momentum to go up. On July 15, Bitcoin surged above $62,000 and rose by more than 3% during the day. Ethereum broke through $3,300 and rose by more than 4% during the day. In addition, the market currently believes that a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a high probability event, which is also beneficial to the virtual currency market.
2. Golden industrial concept stocks performed well. As of the close, Chinagoldintl(02099) rose by 4.28% to HKD 53.65; SD Gold(01787) rose by 2.3% to HKD 16.92; Zhaojin Mining(01818) rose by 1.87% to HKD 15.24; and Lingbao Gold(03330) rose by 1.46% to HKD 3.47.
With the slowdown in US inflation and Powell's dovish signal, the price of gold broke through the integer barrier of $2400. As of July 12, the COMEX gold closing price was $2416.00/oz, up 0.68% from the previous week; the SHFE gold closing price was 568.54 yuan/gram, up 1.59% from the previous week. In addition, Trump's attack or increase may increase investors' hedging sentiment. Huafu Securities research report pointed out that in the short term, the safe-haven sentiment brought by the US political elections, the worsening of the US fiscal deficit, and the market's concern about the US dollar's credit have increased. The upward trend of gold has not ended yet.
Some coal stocks rebounded. As of the close, South Gobi (01878) rose 5.4% to HKD 3.71; Mongolian Mining (00975) rose 4.2% to HKD 10.92; easy commodities (01733) rose 3.77% to HKD 1.65; China Shenhua Energy (01088) rose 2.63% to HKD 35.15.
National Bureau of Statistics data show that coal production has turned from decline to growth. In June, the output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above designated size was 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The growth rate has turned positive, with a decrease of 0.8% in May; the daily output was 13.513 million tons. Coal imports were 44.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. From January to June, the output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.27 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Coal imports were 0.25 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%.
Sealand Securities stated that it is expected that the coal industry will maintain a tight balance for the next few years, the coal industry has high asset quality, abundant cash flow on its books. The listed coal companies have high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins. It is recommended to seize the value attribute of the coal sector.
Mainland real estate stocks fell all day. As of the close, Sino-Ocean Group (03377) fell 4% to HKD 0.36; Sunac (01918) fell 3.45% to HKD 1.12; R&F Properties (02777) fell 3.41% to HKD 0.85; China Vanke (02202) fell 1.89% to HKD 4.67.
Recently, some real estate companies have successively released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, most of which have recorded losses. Sinolink Securities believes that affected by the pace of consolidation, the performance of real estate companies may be under pressure this year, and the bottom line of performance for real estate companies that actively acquire land will gradually approach with the subsequent entry into the finalization of high-gross-profit projects. With the convening of a heavy meeting, it is expected that inventory policies will accelerate landing, and incremental policies may continue to be introduced, accelerating the arrival of the market bottom.
In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to June, the national real estate development investment was CNY 5,252.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. From January to June, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 479.16 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 21.9%. The sales of newly-built commercial housing were CNY 4,713.3 billion, down 25.0%, of which the sales of residential housing decreased by 26.9%.
Macau casino stocks are generally under pressure. As of the close, Melco Int'l Dev (00200) fell 3.6% to HKD 5.09; Sands China (01928) fell 3.53% to HKD 16.42; Wynn Macau (01128) fell 3.47% to HKD 6.12; Galaxy Entertainment (00027) fell 1.99% to HKD 34.5.
JP Morgan pointed out that Macau gambling revenue recorded 3.85 billion Macau yuan (the same below) in the first seven days of July, or daily revenue of 550 million yuan. This means that last week's revenue was 7% lower than the daily average of 590 million yuan in June, and 11% lower than the daily average revenue of 620 million yuan in the second quarter. Although it can be attributed to the European Cup, because large-scale related sports events usually transfer demand for gambling. In addition, the bank also believes that it is still too early to draw a conclusion, but if the crackdown on illegal money changers is strengthened, it will affect recent demand to some extent, and the bank is paying close attention to this.
Popular fluctuating stocks
Genscript Bio (01548) rose against the trend. As of the close, it rose 25.4% to HKD 12.54.
According to reports, Legend Biotech recently received a merger invitation and hired investment bank Centerview Partners to help its board of directors review the acquisition offer and other choices. In the $1.2 billion acquisition of GenScript Biotech by AstraZeneca at the end of last year, Centerview Partners was the exclusive financial advisor to GenScript Biotech, prompting a premium of 62% to the final transaction.
Hepalink (09989) AH shares rose sharply, and as of the close, it rose 13.27% to HKD 3.67.
Hepalink announced that it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of approximately RMB 0.642 billion-0.735 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 420.70%-495.72%; the estimated non-net profit will be approximately RMB 0.308 billion-0.401 billion, a year-on-year increase of 286.96%-403.20%.
Sinotruk (03808) released a profit alert, and as of the close, it rose 5.24% to HKD 18.88.
Sinotruk announced that it is expected that the attributable surplus to equity shareholders of the company will increase by 30% to 45% year-on-year in the first half of 2024. This is mainly due to the stable macroeconomic situation in the domestic market and the continuous efforts in the overseas heavy truck market. The group seizes market opportunities, achieves sales volume growth, and steadily strengthens cost control, steadily improving profitability.
Maoyan Ent (01896) rose all day, and as of the close, it rose 4.62% to HKD 8.15.
It is expected that Maoyan Ent's stock price will outperform the industry in the next 15 days with a probability ranging from 60% to 70%. The bank said that due to the previous poor box office performance, coupled with the bleak box office prospects for the summer vacation season, Maoyan Ent's stock price has recently fallen. But with the hot discussion caused by the blockbuster "Successors Plan" last weekend, it is expected that the market will improve.
New stocks debut.
Guanglian Technology Holdings (02531) opened high and low. As of the close, it rose 2.13% to HKD 4.8.
Guanglian Technology Holdings is priced at HKD 4.7 per share, with a total of 63.6 million shares issued, 500 shares per lot, and a net proceeds of approximately HKD 0.23027 billion. As a participant in China's auto after-market industry, Guanglian Technology Holdings is a provider of in-car hardware and SaaS marketing and management services, focusing on selling in-car hardware products and providing SaaS marketing and management services to participants in the industry value chain.
According to the Zhaoshi Consulting report, based on 2023 revenue calculations, Guanglian Technology Holdings ranks first among SaaS marketing and management service providers in China's automotive aftermarket industry with a market share of 6.1%; it ranks third among in-car hardware providers in China's automotive aftermarket industry with a market share of 3.4%.
