Incidents:
The company released its 2024 semi-annual performance forecast. 2024H1 expects revenue of 2.62-2.72 billion yuan, up 28%-33% year on year; expected net profit to mother of 13.4-1.39 billion yuan, up 30%-35% year on year; net profit without return to mother is expected to be 1.23-1.28 billion yuan, up 36%-42% year on year.
1. Demand improvement verification, continuous performance repair and improvement
2024Q2 continues its high growth trend, and demand improvement logic continues to be verified. According to the performance forecast, 2024Q2 expects operating income of 1.45-1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%-35%; net profit due to mother of 0.77-0.82 billion yuan, an increase of 27%-35%; net profit without return to mother is expected to be 0.71-0.76 billion yuan, an increase of 28%-37% year-on-year.
During the reporting period, downstream demand continued to improve marginally, various product lines maintained a steady pace of progress, and the business maintained a continuous positive trend. We expect desktop communication terminal inventories to be at a healthy level and are expected to maintain a steady growth rate as demand recovers in Europe and the US. Conference products and cloud office terminals are expected to continue to grow rapidly under the product matrix of many conference room all-purpose terminal products and iteratively upgraded BH business headsets.
2. In 2024, focus on the three strategic directions of “full-scene coverage, all-round terminals, and intelligent transformation”, and continue to launch high-quality new products. In 2024, the company will take “full-scene coverage, all-purpose terminals, and intelligent transformation” as the three strategic directions. In 2024, it will mainly launch next-generation smart conference terminal products such as professional audio and video conferencing tablets, conference room series products, and core cameras/microphones/speakers. At the same time, headset products will also launch new products in the wired, DECT wireless and Bluetooth wireless categories to gradually improve the product matrix; through professional meetings, voice communication, and high efficiency The four major capabilities of collaboration and smart office continue to empower enterprises to transform digitally, and expand and improve communication and collaboration solutions across the entire industry. At the same time, the company will also continue to build sales capabilities for large-scale projects and “platform+smart hardware terminal” solutions to further enhance the company's long-term competitiveness.
3. The 2024 equity incentive plan highlights the company's confidence in development
The company announced the 2024 restricted equity incentive plan. The 2024-2025 fiscal year will be used as the assessment year. The 2024/2025 operating income and net profit growth rate will be no less than 20%/40% based on 2023 operating income and net profit, respectively. The assessment goals of the company's current equity incentive plan show the company's development confidence in the steady recovery of performance.
4. Investment suggestions:
As the world's leading provider of communication and collaboration solutions, after experiencing an inventory removal cycle, downstream demand and performance gradually recovered, referring to the company's latest equity incentive plan and maintaining profit forecasts. The estimated revenue for 2024-2026 was 5.22/6.33/7.79 billion yuan, respectively, and earnings per share were 1.91/2.31/2.86 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 38.34 yuan/share on July 12, 2024. PE was 20.1/16.6/13.4 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase” rating .
5. Risk warning:
Risk of exchange rate fluctuations; shortage of raw materials and risk of price increases; sales volume of commercial headsets and conference tablets falling short of expectations; overseas market expansion falls short of expectations; increased risk of industry competition; systemic risk.