维持增持评级。考虑到公司产销高景气、成本费用管控显效，上调2024-2026 年预测EPS 为0.71/0.89/1.07 元（原为0.66/0.81/0.97 元），参考可比公司估值给予2025 年PE 31X，上调目标价为27.59 元（原为25.80 元），维持增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's revenue side recovered strongly in 2024Q2, and profit margins remained at a high level. Continued growth in pulp harvesting volume and diversification of varieties laid the foundation for the company's continued growth and maintained an increase in holdings rating.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the company's high production and sales growth and effective cost control, the 2024-2026 EPS forecast was raised to 0.71/0.89/1.07 yuan (originally 0.66/0.81/0.97 yuan), the 2025 PE 31X was given based on comparable company valuations, and the target price was raised to 27.59 yuan (originally 25.80 yuan), maintaining an increase in holdings rating.
The impact of batch issuance disruptions was eliminated, and Q2 recovered strongly. According to preliminary accounting, the company achieved revenue of 2.841 billion yuan (+5.6% YoY, same below), net profit of 0.726 billion yuan (+28.1%), net profit of 0.724 billion yuan (+29.4%); 2024Q2 achieved revenue of 1.619 billion yuan (+15.8%) in a single quarter, net profit of 0.41 billion yuan (+34.3%), net profit to mother of 0.41 billion yuan (+34.3%), net profit of 0.41 billion yuan (+34.1 billion yuan) %). The cancellation of the simultaneous batch issuance policy at the end of 2023 led to a year-on-year decline in revenue in 2024Q1. The Q2 revenue side growth rate was once again in sync with the growth rate of pulp harvesting, achieving a strong recovery, which also reflected that terminal demand was still high. Profit margins increased significantly due to the combined effects of product price increases and cost control. 2024Q1 and Q2 net interest rates after deduction reached 25.7% and 25.3% respectively, up 6.1 pp and 3.5 pp, respectively, and achieved high levels for two consecutive quarters, indicating that high profit margins are expected to continue. We expect 2024H2's performance to continue to grow steadily.
Industry-leading pulping resources provide momentum for continued growth. In the post-pandemic era, awareness of blood products increased markedly, and demand for terminals continued to be strong. Against the backdrop of a tight balance between supply and demand for major varieties, the increase in pulp collection volume is still the most important factor driving performance growth. Relying on the influence and comprehensive advantages of shareholders of central enterprises, the company is leading in the pulping resources industry. As new pulp stations are built one after another, and slurry stocks are being excavated, the amount of pulp collection continues to grow. In 2023, 79 companies collected 2,415 tons of pulp at pulp stations, an increase of 18.7% over the previous year, accounting for about 20% of the industry's total pulp harvesting volume. As of the 2023 annual report statistics, the company has 80 pulp stations, and another 22 pulp stations are expected to be built one after another, laying the foundation for continued growth in pulp collection, which is expected to be further transformed into performance-side growth.
Varieties continue to be enriched, plasma utilization efficiency continues to improve, and new recombinant products are expected to contribute to the increase. The company is actively developing new varieties. In terms of hematogenous products, Rongsheng's first domestic chromatography was approved in September 2023, Rongsheng Fibrogen was approved in April 2024, Lanzhou Blood System PCC is in the marketing license application stage, and Rongsheng's subcutaneous injection of propium is undergoing phase III clinical trials, and the profitability of tonnes of plasma is expected to continue to increase in the future. In terms of recombinant products not limited to plasma, recombinant factor 8 was approved in September 2023 and is expected to contribute in the next few years. The recombinant factor 7a is undergoing phase III clinical trials, long-term recombinant factor 8 has already been undergoing phase I clinical trials, and the recombinant product layout is expected to continue to be rich.
Risk warning: changes in terminal supply and demand, new product promotion and sales fall short of expectations