固相合成载体引领生命科学板块维持高增长，水处理与纯化板块市场渗透率持续提升。生命科学领域，公司以材料突破为内核，不断开辟新的尖端应用，固相合成载体、软胶、硬胶等产品引领增长，尤其受益GLP-1 市场高景气拉动，固相合成载体需求增长明显，根据礼来财报，替尔泊肽一季度全球收入达23 亿美元，反映了该产品的持续强劲需求。水处理与超纯化领域，公司凭借有竞争力的产品品系，以及更短的供货周期、更灵活的客户服务，市场渗透率进一步提升，预计未来仍将维持较高增速。同时节能环保、化工催化、金属提取等领域，均有阶段性的增长机会。近年来，公司持续引入海内外专家，通过销售网络带动公司内部技术和产品的发展，不断开拓新应用领域，多元化应用场景打造未来强劲的发展动力。同时，7 月8 日公司发布投资建设高端材料制造产业园公告，增加高质量生产能力，满足超纯水、食品等高附加值品种吸附分离材料市场需求。Key points of investment:
The company released the 2024H1 performance forecast: During the reporting period, the company expects to achieve revenue of 1.269-1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%-31%, a year-on-year increase of 0.394-0.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.96%-18.45%, and is expected to achieve net profit without return to mother of 0.383-0.398 billion yuan, an increase of 13.46%-18.07% year-on-year. Furthermore, after deducting the effects of exchange factors (23H1 income of 37.61 million yuan, 24H1 income of 4.04 million yuan), 24H1's net profit to mother increased by about 26-30% year-on-year.
Among them, 24Q2 is expected to achieve revenue of 0.638-0.689 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 26%-36% year-on-year, and 1%-9% month-on-month. It is expected to achieve net profit of 0.225-0.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%-13%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.217-0.233 billion yuan. It is expected to achieve net profit without return to mother of 0.217-0.233 billion yuan, an increase of 4%-12% year-on-year and 31% month-on-month. The results for the single quarter exceeded expectations. There was no significant month-on-month revenue growth in 24Q2 in a single quarter, but the profit side grew significantly. It is expected that the revenue share of the company's high-profit sectors such as biotechnology and ultrapure water will increase.
Solid-phase synthesis carriers lead the life science sector to maintain high growth, and the market penetration rate of the water treatment and purification sector continues to increase. In the field of life science, the company uses material breakthroughs as the core and continues to develop new cutting-edge applications. Solid-phase synthesis carriers, soft rubber, hard rubber and other products lead growth, particularly driven by the high GLP-1 market. Demand for solid phase synthesis carriers increased significantly. According to Lilly's financial reports, global revenue for tirpotide reached 2.3 billion US dollars in the first quarter, reflecting the continued strong demand for this product. In the field of water treatment and ultra-purification, the company's market penetration rate has further increased with competitive product lines, shorter delivery cycles, and more flexible customer service, and it is expected that it will maintain a high growth rate in the future. At the same time, fields such as energy saving and environmental protection, chemical catalysis, and metal extraction all have phased growth opportunities. In recent years, the company has continued to introduce experts from home and abroad, drive the development of the company's internal technology and products through sales networks, continuously explore new application fields, and create a strong impetus for future development by diversifying application scenarios. Meanwhile, on July 8, the company issued an announcement to invest in the construction of a high-end material manufacturing industrial park to increase high-quality production capacity and meet the market demand for high-value-added adsorption and separation materials such as ultrapure water and food.
Ensure the high-quality delivery of in-hand orders for the Salt Lake lithium extraction project, and continue to increase domestic and foreign market development efforts. In 2024, the first production line of the company's key project, the Guoneng Mining Jiechaka Project, is currently being installed. It is expected that the entire Phase I project will be put into operation in 2024. It is the first industrial-grade “direct lithium extraction” benchmark project to be put into operation in Tibet; some of Hanak's equipment for the key project has been manufactured and is awaiting delivery, and a system support contract has been added. As of the 2023 annual report, the company has completed and implemented a total of 12 industrial lithium extraction projects in salt lake, with a total production capacity of 0.086 million tons of lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide, 5 of which have been successfully put into operation; the total number of pilot projects is about 120, providing potential for continuous order formation. At the same time, the company established a South American R&D center in Argentina to provide efficient, timely and localized technical services to a large number of customers in the “lithium triangle” region to improve project development and implementation capabilities.
Investment analysis opinion: Maintain the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast of 0.955, 1.193, and 1.454 billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE of 22, 17, and 14X, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: 1) Industry competition increases risk; 2) risk of core technology leakage, loss of technical personnel and technology change; 3) risk of falling short of expectations in the industrialization of new technology.
