Global macro
On Monday, the three major futures indexes rose slightly before the market.
Tonight at 00:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will have a dialogue with David Rubenstein, Co-Executive Director of The Carlyle Group. As of press time, the three major futures indexes have risen slightly.
Barclays expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and three times next year.
The Federal Reserve forecast report published by the Barclays research team pointed out that the CPI unexpectedly declined in June while the labor market gradually cooled. Currently, it is expected to cut interest rates twice in September and December this year and three times in 2025. Therefore, it is expected that the target range for the Federal Fund rate will remain at 4.75% to 5% at the end of 2024 and maintain at 4% to 4.25% at the end of 2025.
Sending out dovish signals again! Chicago Fed President: Cutting interest rates soon is an appropriate policy choice.
According to a report released by the "Fed Horn" Nick Timiraos on Monday, Federal Reserve Gulspie said that last week's mild inflation data made him more convinced that price pressures were easing, which supports lowering the benchmark rate. Gulspie said he was worried that maintaining interest rates unchanged would lead to an overly tight policy stance, as inflation-adjusted short-term rates actually rose as inflation rates fell month by month.
Is President Trump's position secure? According to Kaitou Macro, Trump 2.0 will cause the US stock market bubble to burst.
After the shocking Trump shooting in the Eastern US on Saturday, Trump's chances of winning the election increased significantly, to the point where victory was almost certain. However, Macro Hive warns that if Trump really wins the 2024 election, the soaring US stocks in the past two years due to the AI boom may collapse, and the stock market bubble may burst ahead of schedule.
Deutsche Bank: Bullish on large-cap and growth tech stocks in the US.
Morgan Stanley said that the Fed's policy rate cut may be accompanied by weakened economic growth and pricing power. The Goldman Sachs strategist pointed out that the softening of economic growth and inflation data has laid the foundation for interest rate cuts, but the short-lived rotation to low-quality cyclical assets last week is unlikely to persist in small-cap stocks, and growth-type stocks are more bullish than value-type stocks, because when the Fed starts to cut interest rates, small-cap growth stocks usually outperform the market. "We maintain our preference for large-cap stocks, but we see subtle and relative betting opportunities in small-cap stocks."
A gun shot propelled bitcoin to soar! A seismic shift in US politics turned out to be a big bullish for the crypto industry.
Since the US presidential candidate Trump was attacked, some analysts predict that this event will push Trump's support rate to rise sharply. Polymarket, the prediction platform, showed that Trump's probability of winning the November election reached 70%, while his competitor Biden's odds fell further to 18%. This development also reignited enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency industry. As of the press release, the trading price exceeded $62,500, up nearly 3%.
Hot news
Growth tech stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Tesla up nearly 4% and Apple up nearly 2%.
Trump concept stocks rose collectively in pre-market trading, and Trump media tech group soared nearly 50%.
In the US stock market, Trump concept stocks rose collectively in pre-market trading, among which,$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$rose by nearly 50%,$Phunware (PHUN.US)$rose by more than 30%. News-wise, former US President Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, but the fearless scene lifted his support rate. After being shot, Polymarket data showed that Trump's chances of becoming president again increased to 70%.
Google's largest acquisition in history! Wiz, a cybersecurity startup, is acquired for $23 billion.
According to sources cited by the media, Alphabet, the parent company, is in deep negotiations to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for $23 billion. Sources say the deal may be reached soon. Wiz was founded in Israel in 2020 and is headquartered in New York. It is one of the fastest-growing software startups in the world, providing cloud-based cybersecurity solutions with AI-driven real-time threat detection and response capabilities.$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Tesla rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading, and Musk publicly expressed support for Trump.
It rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading to $257.73. Shortly after Trump was shot, Musk officially supported Trump on the social media platform X. Musk said, "I fully support Trump and wish him a speedy recovery." For the past few months, people have been speculating whether Musk would support Trump. Recently, it was reported that Musk donated to a super PAC dedicated to helping Trump take over the White House.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Apple's growth tech stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Tesla up nearly 4% and Apple up nearly 2%.
US stocks continued to rise in pre-market trading, up nearly 2% to $234.97. On the news front, Apple's annual sales in India increased by 33%, reaching a record nearly $8 billion. In addition, Morgan Stanley rated Apple as a top pick with a target price raised from $216 to $273.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$US stocks continued to rise in pre-market trading, up nearly 2% to $234.97. On the news front, Apple's annual sales in India increased by 33%, reaching a record nearly $8 billion. In addition, Morgan Stanley rated Apple as a top pick with a target price raised from $216 to $273.
Goldman Sachs: Q2 net revenue was $12.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, higher than market expectations.
$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$The stock falls 0.14% pre-market, having risen nearly 2% earlier and closing at $479.2. Its Q2 net revenue was $12.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, beating the estimated $12.39 billion. Net income was $3.04 billion, with earnings per share of $8.62.
Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.
Most China concept stocks are falling before the opening.
Taiwan Semiconductor rises more than 1% pre-market, as Apple plans to introduce TSMC's advanced SoIC packaging process for the M5 chip.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$The stock rises more than 1% pre-market, closing at $189.29. In addition to news that TSMC's 2nm process is reportedly set to begin trial production this week, Apple is planning to use TSMC's SoIC (system-in-a-chip) advanced packaging technology for the M5 chip and begin mass production. SoIC production capacity is expected to grow several times by 2026. Furthermore, there are industry reports that TSMC has formed a team for fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP) and plans to establish a mini-line for trial production.
Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.
Reminder for US Macro Events
(All in Peking Time)
20:30 July New York Fed manufacturing index.
00:30 Fed Chairman Powell in dialogue with David Rubenstein, Co-Executive Director of The Carlyle Group.
04:35 2024 FOMC voter Daly participates in a panel on "bull and bear markets and bankers".
Editor/ping