Over the weekend, the most significant topic in the international market is undoubtedly the Trump attack incident.

The market believes that this may be a key moment to completely overturn the pattern of the US election this year. However, the attack still caused a huge earthquake in the US political arena, and the most obvious consequence is that the expectations for Trump's victory have once again increased.

According to the Polymarket prediction platform, Trump's chances of winning the November election soared by about 10 percentage points to 70% after the shooting incident, while his competitor Biden's chances of winning plummeted to 18%.

'Trump trade' is making a comeback.

It is undeniable that the shooting incident over the weekend has also added fuel to the fire to a series of "Trump trades" in the financial market recently.

The scope of the so-called "Trump trade" is extremely broad, covering not only common long positions in the dollar, short positions in US bonds, but also energy, medical care stocks, etc. Many investors believe that Republican policies on tariffs, immigration and deficits will lead to a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and a more favorable environment for stocks in these sectors.

According to experts' analysis cited by foreign media such as Bloomberg and Reuters, the following four assets are worth noting: the US dollar, bitcoin, gold, and US stocks (especially defensive stocks and traditional energy stocks).

From the trend of the past two days, the price of bitcoin, which is regarded by the industry as one of the "Trump trades", has surpassed $63,000 today, and ethereum has surpassed $3,300.

Trump expressed his full support for cryptocurrencies in his campaign, stating that he will speak at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July. In mid-June, he also met with representatives of US Bitcoin mining companies and expressed support for encrypted mining businesses.

Some market observers pointed out that traders may initially flock to safe-haven assets and reassess transactions that are most closely related to Trump's candidacy in the market.

Futu news has also sorted out some Trump concept stocks for mooers to refer to: $Trump-Win Beneficial Stocks (LIST22962.US)$, for mooers' reference:

From the opening performance of the US stock market today, these concept stocks are soaring.$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$up nearly 30%,$Phunware (PHUN.US)$up nearly 6%; digital currency concept stocks$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Increased by nearly 12%.$Coinbase (COIN.US)$up nearly 10%,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$KKR & Co stocks rose more than 8%.$Marathon Digital (MARA.US)$up nearly 8%; The publicly staged company under Trump and Musk.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$up over 6%.

How do analysts view this?

Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research in California, believes that bond investors should be particularly cautious as the attack may boost Trump's chances of winning.

Papic wrote: "I do believe that the bond market should realize at some point that President Trump has a higher chance of winning the White House than any of his competitors. I still think that as his chances increase, the probability of violent swings in the bond market will also increase."

Capital.com's senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said that after the shooting, he saw clients move funds into bitcoin and gold. And cryptocurrencies did indeed rise over the weekend. He said that

this news marks a change in US political norms, as well as a greater emergency of political violence. For the market, this means hedging transactions, but will be more inclined to non-traditional hedging assets.

IGAustralia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out that the failed assassination increased the chances of Trump's reelection, which gave bitcoin the momentum to rise.

Santiment analysts predict that the cryptocurrency market will experience greater volatility and its rise will be similar to that after the presidential TV debate in June. After the broadcast, as Biden's mental state was poor, the market significantly raised its expectations for Trump's victory.

QCP Capital revealed in a report that large hedge funds are actively buying Bitcoin. The macro sentiment is also very positive, with inflation slowing down and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which is consistent with the trend of rising Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. The company believes that the target price for bitcoin is between 0.1-0.12 million USD.

Mooers,

The global market is accelerating the "Trump trade".

Will you participate in it?

Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section~

Editor/Somer