Key points of investment:
Maintaining the “Overweight” rating: Maintaining the 2024/2025/2026 EPS to 1.09/1.26/1.58 yuan.
Maintain the target price of 16.32 yuan and maintain the “Overweight” rating.
Q2 Renewable energy capacity doubled, driving the company's performance to continue to increase. The company's performance forecast revealed 1H24E net profit of 5.5 to 0.58 billion yuan, +84.5% to 94.6% year over year; we estimated 2Q24E net profit of 1.9 to 0.22 billion yuan, +68.1 to 94.2% year on year, and the performance continued to grow rapidly. We estimate that the company's high performance mainly benefited from the increase in new energy power: 2Q24's new energy feed-in power was 1 billion kilowatt-hours, +109% year over year (2Q24 feed-in power growth rate compared to 1Q24 -23.4 ppts year on year, mainly due to the average wind speed of 2Q24 about -0.35 m/s year on year).
The increase in controlling shareholders' holdings shows confidence in development, and the installed capacity of new energy sources is expected to continue to grow. Energy Investment Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, has accumulated an increase of 0.085 billion yuan (corresponding to an increase of 9.46 million shares of the company's shares, accounting for 1.03% of the company's total share capital) from February 1, 2024 to July 9, 2024. Previously, Energy Investment Group announced plans to increase the total amount of the company's shares by no less than RMB 0.1 billion within 6 months from February 1, 2024 through methods permitted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
We believe that Energy Investment Group's continued increase in its holdings shows the controlling shareholders' confidence in the company's future development and recognition of its long-term investment value. As of the end of 1H24, the company had put into production 1.88 million kilowatts of energy installed, +133% over the same period last year. According to the company's disclosure: 1) The second phase of the Jinzhong wind farm project and the Huludi PV project are scheduled to be put into operation at full capacity within 2024; 2) the company strives to start construction of the 0.67 million kilowatt wind power expansion project and connect the first batch of units to the grid in 2024; 3) As of May 22, 2024, the company has signed multiple “substitute cultivation agreements” with the controlling shareholders and their subsidiaries with a total rated capacity of 1.05 million kilowatts, which will be injected into the company on a priority basis after the projects meet good profit and standardized operating conditions. We expect that new energy installed capacity is expected to maintain steady growth with the support of the company's sufficient project reserves.
High performance verifies the profitability of the project, and full-year results can be expected. Yunnan Province is rich in wind energy resources. From 2019 to 2023, the average number of hours used for wind power in Yunnan Province was 2,602 hours, 435 hours higher than the national average for the same period. According to the company's disclosure, the company's wind farms such as Yongning are all located in development areas with good wind energy resources in Yunnan Province, and there is basically no electricity abandonment during the dry season in Yunnan Province. We believe that the company's high 1H24 performance confirms that the profitability of the company's new production projects remains at a high level. It is expected that the company's 2024E annual performance will increase.
Risk warning: Electricity demand falls short of expectations, salt and nitrogen business operations fall short of expectations, asset acquisition progress and plans fall short of expectations, etc.