What data did the National Bureau of Statistics release today? How do institutions view the future coal price?
Benefiting from the increase in coal production from a decrease to an increase in June, most Hong Kong stocks of coal industry rose, while the Hang Seng Index and technology index both fell by more than 1% in the same period. As of press time, Mongol Mining (00975.HK), E-Commodities (01733.HK), China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK), Yankuang Energy (01171.HK) and China Coal Energy (01898.HK) rose by 2.67%, 2.52%, 2.48%, 1.96% and 1.47% respectively.
Note: Performance of coal mining stocks.
In terms of news, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of raw coal turned from decreasing to increasing. In June, the output of industrial raw coal reached 0.41 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive, down 0.8% in May; the daily output was 13.513 million tons. The import of coal was 44.6 million tons, up 11.9% year-on-year. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal of enterprises above designated size was 2.27 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. The import of coal was 0.25 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%.
Institutions stated that they expect that there will still be support for high coal prices throughout the year.
According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the recent market performance of the coal industry sector is closely related to coal price fluctuations, and the high price expectations for the year still provide support for the sector. Leading coal companies are attractive in terms of valuation and dividend yield expectations, which may become the focus of investors' attention. The report also predicts that under the promotion of rising coal prices and dividend style, the coal industry sector is expected to launch a new round of market rally.
Analysts at Sealand Securities believe that due to the complexity of mining procedures, the long construction and production cycle, the cost of building new mines has increased significantly, and the willingness of mainstream coal companies to build new mines is still weak. In addition, as the industry's current production capacity has basically reached a high load state and the continuous exit of resource-exhausted mines in eastern and other regions has further exacerbated the supply constraints of the industry. Therefore, it is expected that the coal industry will maintain a tight balance in the next few years.
Sealand Securities also pointed out that the coal industry has high asset quality, abundant cash flow in accounts, and presents the 'five highs' characteristics of high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins for listed coal companies. Based on these advantages, the brokerage recommended that investors pay attention to the value attributes of the coal industry sector and seize relevant investment opportunities.