盈利预测与投资建议。公司是焦煤行业龙头，资源优势强，焦煤规模行业领先。根据中国煤炭工业协会数据，山西焦煤集团23 年度原煤产量1.85 亿吨（同比+1.5%），作为集团焦煤上市平台，中长期有望持续受益集团资源整合。过去5 年公司已经完成收购集团所属水峪、腾晖和华晋焦煤相关股权。公司过去三年分红显著提升，21-23 年度分红比例达79%、64%和67%。预计24-26 年EPS 分别为0.80、0.85 和0.89元/股，维持公司合理价值11.50 元/股的观点不变，维持“买入”评级。Core views:
The forecast is that Q2 will deduct 1.01 billion yuan from non-performance centers, an increase of 13% over the previous quarter. The company released an interim results forecast. In the first half of the year, it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mother of 1.72-2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50%-62%; net profit after deducting non-attributable net profit of 1.64-2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52%-64%. Among them, Q2 is expected to achieve net profit of 0.77-1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36%-62% and a month-on-month decrease of 19% -38%; net profit without return to mother of 0.74-1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%-64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17% to 44%. The main reason is that some of the company's mines were shut down and production was limited due to safety incidents, etc., and the production and sales volume of coal products declined year on year. At the same time, the comprehensive sales price of commercial coal fell year on year and the increase in the tax rate on coal resources, etc., which led to a year-on-year decline in the company's coal sector profits. As efforts to safely produce coal and improve quality and efficiency intensified, the month-on-month decline in production and sales of coal products narrowed in the second quarter, and profitability gradually rebounded.
Q3 The long-term price of coking coal remained flat month-on-month. Since 24, the average price of coking coal produced in Changxie has risen slightly compared to 23. According to the company's financial report, the company produced 46.08 million tons of raw coal in 23 (+5.1% year on year), 18.84 million tons of refined coal (+2.8% year over year), the 2024 operating target is 44.8 million tons of raw coal, and 18.88 million tons of refined coal. According to Wind data, the representative coal type of coking coal in Shanxi, the average price of coking coal, has been 2,106 yuan/ton over the past 24 years, or +0.6% over the same period. Among them, the Q3 long-term agreement price was 2010 yuan/ton, which was the same as in Q2.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is a leader in the coking coal industry, with strong resource advantages and leading the coking coal industry in scale. According to data from the China Coal Industry Association, Shanxi Coking Coal Group produced 0.185 billion tons of raw coal in fiscal year 23 (+1.5% year over year). As the Group's coking coal listing platform, it is expected that it will continue to benefit from the Group's resource integration in the medium to long term. In the past 5 years, the company has completed the acquisition of shares related to Shuiyu, Tenghui and Huajin Coking Coal, which belong to the group. The company's dividends have increased significantly in the past three years, with dividend ratios of 79%, 64% and 67% for 21-23. EPS is expected to be 0.80, 0.85, and 0.89 yuan/share respectively in 24-26, maintaining the company's view of a reasonable value of 11.50 yuan/share and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Downstream demand performance is low, coal prices have fallen beyond expectations, cost control is low, etc.
