境外维持较高景气，新签订单结构向好，运维大幅增长24H1 公司新签订单371 亿元，同比-9%，其中工程技术/装备制造/运维服务分别新签241.5/33.4/89.0 亿元，同比-18%/-15%/+41%；分地区，境内新签136 亿元，同比-28%，其中工程技术/装备制造/运维服务同比-58%/-33%/+42%，境内工程、装备业务受国内水泥行业资本开支影响表现低迷，但规模影响已逐渐减弱，具备长期价值的运维订单大幅增长；境外新签235 亿元，同比+9%，境外占比63%，其中工程技术/装备制造/运维服务同比+4%/+58%/+37%，公司24H1 境外订单在23H1 同比增长2 倍的基础上实现持续增长，结构上装备出海、运维等战略重心业务均实现高增。The dividend ratio was further increased, and the dividend value was highlighted. To maintain the “buy” rating company's “improve quality, increase efficiency and focus on return” action plan, the plan is to further increase year by year from the previous 40%, that is, profits distributed by cash in 2024-2026 will not be less than 44%/48.40%/53.24% of the distributable profit achieved in that year, respectively. We maintain the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 at 3.31/3.74/4.2 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the corresponding dividend rate was 5.5%/6.8%/8.4%. As of the end of June '24, on-hand orders were full of about 59.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.89% over the previous year, about 1.3 times the revenue in '23, to ensure steady future development. Comparable, the company's 2024 Wind unanimously expected an average of 13 x PE, approved the company 13 x PE in 2024, adjusted the target price to 16.30 yuan (previous value 18.80 yuan), and maintained the “buy” rating.
Actively reward shareholders and continuously improve dividend plans in the short term
The company's dividend ratio for 2022 to 2023 is about 36%. Previously, the “Shareholder Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2024-2026)” was released on December 5, 2023, making it clear that the future annual dividend ratio will not be less than 40%. On this basis, the “Improve Quality, Efficiency, and Value Return” action plan added “the annual cash dividend ratio increased by no less than 10% year-on-year”, that is, profits distributed by cash in 2024 to 2026 are not less than 44%/48.40%/53.24% of the distributable profits achieved in that year, respectively.
Overseas prosperity was maintained, and the new order structure was improving. Operation and maintenance increased sharply by 24H1 company to sign new orders of 37.1 billion yuan, compared with -9%. Among them, engineering technology/equipment manufacturing/operation and maintenance services were newly signed at 24.15/3.34/8.9 billion yuan, -18%/-15%/+41%; by region, domestic new contracts were 13.6 billion yuan, -28% year-on-year, of which engineering technology/equipment manufacturing/operation and maintenance services were affected by domestic engineering and equipment business The impact of capital expenditure on the cement industry has been sluggish, but the impact on scale has gradually weakened, and operation and maintenance orders with long-term value have increased dramatically; 23.5 billion yuan was signed from overseas, with an overseas share of 63%, of which engineering technology/equipment manufacturing/operation and maintenance services accounted for +4%/+58%/+37%. The company's 24H1 overseas orders continued to grow on the basis of 23H1's two-fold year-on-year increase. Structurally, strategically focused businesses such as equipment overseas, operation and maintenance all achieved high growth.
Strategic transformation is progressing steadily, and management quality and efficiency are expected to continue to improve
Strong overseas prosperity compounded the steady progress of the company's own strategic transformation, which is expected to drive a continuous improvement in the quality and efficiency of operations.
In 2021-2023, the company's overseas revenue accounted for 37%/43%/44%, overseas orders accounted for 46%/47%/54% respectively, and 24H1 further increased to 63%. With order execution, the share of overseas revenue is expected to continue to increase. Driven by the development of overseas business with good profit margins and cash flow, as well as the development of equipment and operation and maintenance businesses, the company's various operating indicators in 2023 were 19.4%/6.4%/16.3%, respectively, +2.09/+0.44/+1.13pct (restated), achieving a net cash flow inflow of 3.54 billion yuan from operating activities in '23, +2.4 billion compared to the previous year (restated).
Risk warning: The increase in the market share of equipment manufacturing fell short of expectations, the increase in the operation and maintenance of cement production lines and mines fell short of expectations, and investment in the cement industry declined significantly.
