This week's important schedule overview

• The US stock market is entering Q2 earnings season, and Taiwan Semiconductor's results are imminent.

The US stock market is entering Q2 earnings season, and Taiwan Semiconductor will release its Q2 earnings report on Thursday, July 18th. Earlier released sales data showed that TSMC's Q2 sales revenue increased by 40.1% year-on-year, exceeding the average expectation of 36%. Wall Street expects TSMC's Q2 net profit to increase by 29% year-on-year, with EPS reaching $1.4, higher than Q1's $1.34.

What is more noteworthy is that institutions such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley predict that TSMC may also increase its full-year sales expectations, providing strong support for company valuation expansion. Morgan Stanley previously raised TSMC's target price by about 9%, saying that TSMC may charge customers more fees in 2025 to further increase revenue.

In addition, banking giants such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are scheduled to release their earnings reports this week. The performance of ASML Holding and Netflix is also highly anticipated by the market.

• The appearance of the US 'horrible data' may further support the prospect of interest rate cuts.

Although Federal Reserve officials claim they are not in a hurry to start interest rate cuts, investors are increasingly confident in their expectations of action in September because inflation has slowed down again after stagnation earlier this year, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that the labor market has recently cooled. US consumer spending also seems to be slowing down, and the retail sales data, which was called 'horrible', on Tuesday may provide more evidence.

After increasing by only 0.1% month-on-month in May, it is expected that retail sales in the US in June will remain unchanged. Further weakness in consumption will enhance expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and any unexpected rebound may prompt the US dollar to stop falling and rebound. The US dollar index is currently at the support level of 104, and traders will pay attention to whether it can hold this level.

• Powell will attend events, and senior officials of the Federal Reserve will intensify speeches.

This week, senior officials of the Federal Reserve will make collective speeches. Powell will attend events and have a dialogue with executives of his 'former employer' the Carlyle Group. Other senior officials of the central bank will also make appearances and speeches, including board members Quarles, Waller, Bowman, and Williams, Barkin, Daly, and Logan, chairmen of regional Federal Reserve Banks.

Investors will be watching the speeches of Federal Reserve decision-makers led by Powell to observe whether the PPI and CPI data will have an effect on the Fed's interest rate cut prospects. The market generally believes that officials' attitudes will not change too much: more evidence is needed to show that inflation is returning to the target of 2%, and no specific interest rate cut timetable will be provided.

• The Federal Reserve will release the 'Beige Book' on economic conditions.

The Federal Reserve will release the 'Beige Book' on economic conditions on Thursday. The report is an important reference for the Fed's monetary policy meetings and will help investors evaluate the current economic situation in the United States.

Robert Minter, the ETF strategy director of Abrdn, said that with the slowdown of the labor market, the Federal Reserve needs to take action immediately to avoid falling further behind. 'If you look at how high consumer debt is, then pressure on the labor market does not need to be too great to cause real problems for the economy. Although I do not believe that the economy will enter a recession, it is entirely up to the Federal Reserve.'

• The 20th third plenary session of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing from July 15th to 18th.

The Communist Party of China's 20th Central Committee's third plenary session (referred to as the Third Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee) will be held in Beijing from July 15th to 18th, 2024. The session will focus on further comprehensively deepening reform and promoting a Chinese-style modernization.

Xinhua News Agency previously said: 'Promoting deeper reforms through expanding openness and promoting expanding openness through deeper reforms injects new power, adds new vitality, and expands new space for economic development.'

'We must persist in relying on reform and opening up to enhance the endogenous power of development, and coordinate the deepening of reforms and high-level opening-up' - this is one of the regular perceptions of our party's economic work in the new era and also the key to success on the new journey of comprehensively deepening reform to write a new chapter of Chinese-style modernization.

• China's Q2 GDP will be unveiled, and the market will focus on June economic data.

China's economic performance in the first half of 2024 will be officially announced at 10 am on July 15th, and Q2 and H1 GDP as well as core economic indicators such as June's retail sales, investment, and industrial added value will be the focus of the market's attention.

According to Securities Times, the five chief economists (Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of CASC Securities, Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, Zhang Jun, chief economist of China Galaxy Securities, and Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of Guangcai Industry Research Institute) generally believe that China's external demand marginally improves and consumption continues to recover overall in Q2, investment remains steady, and Q2 GDP is expected to grow 5.1% year-on-year, with the cumulative year-on-year growth in the first half of the year likely to be higher than the annual target.

At the same time as the data was released, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance in the first half of the year, and the National Bureau of Statistics will interpret the economic performance in the first half of the year.

• The ECB is set to publish its rate decision on Thursday, with a low probability of further rate cuts in July.

The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday, July 18th. The ECB lowered interest rates for the first time in this round of the cycle last month, but is expected to hold rates steady during this week's two-day policy meeting. Minutes from the June meeting showed that the ECB has eased its concerns about policy impeding economic growth and is generally bullish on inflation prospects. It is expected to cut rates three times this year, a downward revision from previous expectations.

Wall Street predicts that when the ECB further reduces interest rates will depend on the speed at which inflation in the service sector falls. It is unlikely that there will be further rate cuts in July. Earlier, several officials including ECB President Lagarde and Chief Economist Lane collectively expressed the view that there was no need to cut interest rates further at the moment.

In addition, the final value of the Eurozone CPI in June will be released on Wednesday, July 17th. Preliminary data released earlier showed that the year-on-year inflation rate in the service sector in June was the highest, flat with the seven-month high set in May.

This week's key performance calendar

Monday, July 15th

Keywords: China's Q2 GDP Annual Rate; Goldman Sachs, BlackRock's performance; Japanese stock market holiday.

On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release China's Q2 GDP annual rate, June's YoY social consumer goods retail sales, and June's scale-above industrial added value YoY and other economic data; the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for July will be released in the U.S.

In terms of financial events, the National Bureau of Statistics will release monthly reports on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The Third Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee will be held in Beijing from today until the 18th.

Regarding financial reports,$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$,$Blackrock (BLK.US)$The financial report will be released before the pre-market trading in the U.S.

In addition, the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan will be closed for one day due to Marine Day on Monday.

Tuesday, July 16th

Keywords: U.S. June retail sales month-on-month rate; Powell dialogue

On Tuesday, the U.S. will release June's month-on-month retail sales, June's month-on-month import and export price index, and July's NAHB housing market index.

Regarding financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a dialogue with David Rubenstein, Co-Chairman of Carlyle Group, and 2024 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daly will attend a conference entitled "Bull Market, Bear Market, and Bankers".

Regarding financial reports,$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$,$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$,$State Street (STT.US)$The financial report will be released before the pre-market trading in the U.S.

Wednesday, July 17th

Keywords: ASML, Johnson & Johnson performance

On Wednesday, economic data includes the final annual CPI rate for the Eurozone in June, the annualized total new housing starts in the U.S. for June, the monthly industrial output for the U.S. in June, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 12th in the U.S., and strategic petroleum reserve inventory will be released.

In terms of financial events, Fed director Quarles will speak; Fed director Powell will speak on economic prospects; 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak.

Regarding financial reports,$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$Financial report will be released today;$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$Performance will be released before pre-market trading in the U.S.;$Discover Financial Services (DFS.US)$will release its performance after market close.

Thursday, July 18th;

Keywords: Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix earnings; Fed's Beige Book; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week; European Central Bank interest rate decision.

On Thursday, economic data includes the initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 13th, the July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the monthly rate of the June Conference Board Leading Indicators.

In terms of financial events, the Fed will release the Beige Book; the European Central Bank will release interest rate decisions, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Regarding financial reports,$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Financial report will be released today;$Netflix (NFLX.US)$,$Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)$Performance will be released after post-market trading in the U.S.;

Friday, July 19th;

Several Fed officials will speak.

On Friday, economic events include 2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly participating in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaking on monetary policy; 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Kaplan delivering opening remarks at an event; and Fed director Bowman speaking.

Regarding financial reports,$American Express (AXP.US)$,$Schlumberger (SLB.US)$Earnings will be announced before pre-market trading.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor / jayden