Emerging Market Outlook: Will funds flow towards major processing, bio, and earnings stocks as the Growth Market 250 Index enters a battle to break through the 200-day moving average?

Fisco Japan · Jul 13 13:41

■週末の大型株急落で新興市場に資金が流入

今週の新興市場は上昇。同時期の騰落率は、日経平均が＋0.68％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は＋2.60％、グロース市場250指数は＋2.99％と新興市場の上昇が目立った。週初から新興市場の売買代金は減少しグロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数ともに値動きの乏しいもみ合い相場が続いたが、週末に日経平均が1000円超の下落で大型株が急落した一方、新興市場に資金が流入。グロース市場Core指数構成銘柄が全て上昇するなど時価総額が大きい主力株が買われたことで、両指数は上げ幅を拡大する展開となった。11日の米国市場で、中小型で構成するラッセル2000が前日比3.57％と大幅高したことがグロース市場への資金流入の要因と見られる。

時価総額上位銘柄では、今週末12日にGENDA＜9166＞が6日ぶりに反発し上場来高値を更新したほか、カバー＜5253＞、GMO FG＜4051＞が前日比2桁の上昇率となった。一方、ispace＜9348＞は週末も小幅反発に留まるなど勢いは弱い。このほかの銘柄では、ENECHANGE＜4169＞が遅延していた有価証券報告書を提出し監理銘柄（確認中）の指定が解除されたことで大幅反発。セルシード＜7776＞、シンバイオ製薬＜4582＞、ペルセウスプロテオミクス＜4882＞などバイオ銘柄の一角も買われた。一方、メドレックス＜4586＞、VRAIN Solution＜135A＞、クリーマ＜4017＞は決算内容が嫌気されて売り優勢となった。

■今週末の勢いが続くか注目、IPOは1社

来週の新興市場は、米国市場次第かもしれないが、今週末の勢いが続くか注目されよう。グロース市場250指数は、上値抵抗として意識されていた75日移動平均線を明確に上回った。売買代金も増加したことで上への意識は強まりやすい状況と言えよう。686ポイントで推移する200日移動平均線を上回る展開となれば、今年4月1日以来となる。25日移動平均線が上向いている状況下、こうした節目を上回ってくると、時価総額が大きい主力株を中心としたしっかりとした相場展開が期待できよう。日々のグロース市場全体の売買代金が2000億円前後となれば、プライム市場の中小型株で売買していた個人投資家もグロース市場に参戦しやすくなると考える。

来週予定されている新規株式公開（IPO）は、18日にカドス・コーポレーション＜211A＞がスタンダードへ上場するだけなので、物色の対象は引き続き主力銘柄とバイオ銘柄、そして、決算銘柄となるだろう。12日引け後の決算銘柄では、今期営業損益見通しを黒字に上方修正したELEMENTS＜5246＞、今期経常利益を前期比4.9倍の過去最高益見通しとしたビザスク＜4490＞、好業績で上場後初めての配当実施を発表したロゴスホールディングス＜205A＞、経常利益が5期連続で過去最高を更新する見通しのCocolive＜137A＞、従来無配としていた今期配当を実施するAHCグループ＜7083＞などが週明けは注目されそうだ。こうした決算銘柄は短期的な資金の流出入が激しいものの、日替わりで循環物色が続くことで投資家の物色意欲の強さを確認することもできよう。

In the wake of the large cap plunge on the weekend, funds flowed into the emerging markets.

The emerging markets rose this week. During the same period, while the Nikkei Average rose +0.68%, the growth market index rose +2.60% and the growth market 250 index rose +2.99%, highlighting the rise of the emerging markets. Since the beginning of the week, trading volume in the emerging markets has declined and a tight range has continued in both the growth market index and the growth market 250 index amid tame price movements. However, on the weekend, large-cap stocks fell sharply by over 1,000 yen in the Nikkei Average, while funds flowed into the emerging markets. Both indices enlarged their gains as leading stocks with large market capitalization, including all constituent stocks in the growth market core index, were bought. The Russell 2000, which consists of small and mid cap stocks, surged 3.57% higher than the previous day on October 11th in the United States, which is seen as a factor in the influx of funds into the growth market.

Among top market capitalization stocks, GENDA <9166> rebounded for the first time in six days and updated its all-time high at the end of this week, while COVER <5253> and GMO FG <4051> had double-digit gains in the previous day. On the other hand, iSpace <9348> remained weak with a slight rebound at the weekend. In addition, ENECHANGE <4169> rebounded significantly after filing its annual securities report, and some biotech stocks such as CELL SEED <7776>, Simbiotic Pharmaceuticals <4582>, and Perseus Proteomics <4882> were bought. As for the other stocks, MEDREX <4586>, VRAIN Solution <135A>, and CREEMA <4017> became sellers due to unfavorable earnings results.

Attention is focused on whether this weekend's trend will continue, and only one company will go public (IPO) next week.

Next week's emerging markets may depend on the U.S. market, but attention will be paid to whether this weekend's trend will continue. The growth market 250 index clearly exceeded the 75-day moving average line, which had been seen as a resistance level. With increased trading volume, the upward perception is likely to be stronger. If the 200-day moving average line, which is currently at 686 points, is exceeded, it will be the first time since April 1st of this year. With the 25-day moving average line pointing upward, a solid market development centered on leading stocks with large market capitalization can be expected if they exceed such a milestone. If the daily trading volume of the entire growth market reaches around JPY 200 billion, individual investors who traded small and mid cap stocks in the prime market are likely to participate in the growth market as well. Only one company, KADOS CORPORATION <211A>, will go public on the 18th next week, so the target of speculative trading is likely to continue to be leading stocks, biotech stocks, and earnings-related stocks.

ELEMENTS <5246>, which revised its business operating income forecast for the current term to be in the black, VISASQ <4490>, which expects record high earnings for ordinary income compared to the previous year by 4.9 times, LOGOS HOLDINGS <205A>, which announced its first dividend payment since listing with good performance, COCOLIVE <137A>, which expects to update its record high earnings for the fifth consecutive period in operating income, and AHC Group <7083>, which will implement dividends this term, although it has not been done in the past, are expected to be newsworthy at the beginning of next week. Although such earnings-related stocks have violent inflows and outflows of short-term funds, it can be confirmed that investors have strong interest in speculative trading by the continuing animal spirits that change from day to day.

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新興市場見通し：グロース市場250指数は200日線突破の攻防へ、主力処・バイオ・決算銘柄に資金が向かうか

Emerging Market Outlook: Will funds flow towards major processing, bio, and earnings stocks as the Growth Market 250 Index enters a battle to break through the 200-day moving average?

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