① Today, the “Big Mac” of many banks rose again. Among them, ICBC continued to hit a six-year high, and Agricultural Bank reached another record high. ② The banking sector experienced a “rain of red envelopes” this month. The total dividends of ICBC and CCB all exceeded 100 billion yuan, and China Merchants Bank paid the highest amount of cash per share. ③ Dividend assets have recently recovered, and there is internal differentiation, and the fund shares of some related ETFs continue to grow.
Financial Services Association, July 12 (Editor Zilong). Today (July 12), the banking sector picked up sharply, and many “Big Macs” are dancing again. By the close, out of trillion-dollar bank stocks, ICBC, Bank of Communications, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank all hit new highs during the year, and Agricultural Bank continued to hit record highs in the intraday market. It is worth noting that ICBC, which has the highest total market capitalization, has now hit a record high in nearly six years, and is approaching the highest point ever recorded.
Note: Many banks' weighted stocks reached new highs (as of the close of July 12)
Bank weights frequently reach new highs, and index valuations continue to recover
Since this month, bank stocks have enjoyed intensive dividends. Based on the ex-dividend date, a total of nearly 20 shares have already paid or are about to pay cash dividends for 2023. Judging from the amount of cash paid per share, China Merchants Bank is the most “generous” of bank stocks that pay dividends during the month. It plans to allocate 19.72 yuan for every 10 shares, ranking first. In terms of dividend amount statistics, ICBC ranked first with a total dividend of 109.203 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank, which also surpassed 100 billion yuan in dividends. Boosted by the “rain of red envelopes,” bank stocks have collectively strengthened today, and many major market capitalization leaders have continued to reach new highs.
Note: Bank stocks that have paid or are about to implement dividends this month (data as of July 12)
Since this year, the overall trend of bank stocks has been strong. Despite recent adjustments, the sector index growth rate is still among the highest in all industries. According to the specific data, according to Shenwan's first-level industry statistics, only 8 of the 31 industry sectors had “red cards” within 8 years, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total. Among them, the banking sector index had a cumulative increase of nearly 17.8% during the year, ranking first, followed by the utilities sector, with an annual increase of nearly 12.4%. Petroleum, petrochemicals, and household appliances all increased by nearly 7%, while the general, computer, and media sectors had the highest relative declines.
Note: The rise and fall rate of each sector index during the year (as of the close of July 12)
Boosted by continued strengthening during the year, banking sector valuations were also repaired. According to China Securities Bank Index statistics, as of today's close, its current price-earnings ratio (TTM) is 5.56 times, at the 32.55% percentile in the past ten years; its net market ratio is 0.6 times, which is at the 21.75% percentile in the past ten years. Overall, both of its major valuation indicators have rebounded from before. Furthermore, the current dividend rate of the China Securities Bank Index is close to 7.26%, the highest level since listing, and is at the top of the China Securities Industry Index, only slightly lower than the China Securities Coal Index (7.49%).
Note: The current dividend rate and percentile of the China Securities Bank Index (as of the close of July 12)
Dividend asset performance is divided, and attention is being paid to the future direction of the economy
Since this month, there has been a correction in dividend assets, and internal differentiation has occurred. As of today's closing (July 12), the dividend-related sector (Shenwan Level 1), the non-ferrous metals, steel, banking and utilities sector indices remained “red” during the month, rising by nearly 3.6%, 1.8%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively, while sectors such as coal, building decoration, building materials, and non-bank finance all showed a rise or fall, especially the coal sector, which had a cumulative decline of nearly 7.1% this month, ranking first among all sector indices. At the same time, only 8% of its individual stocks closed during the month.
Note: Monthly rise and fall rate of indices by sector (as of the close of July 12)
However, although the dividend direction has continued to be adjusted recently, the shares of some related ETFs have continued to grow. As of July 11 data, Wanjia Fund's dividend ETF share recently experienced a sharp rise, with a cumulative increase of nearly 4.65 times during the month. In addition, among dividend-related ETFs with the highest fund size, funds such as Huatai Berry Fund Low Dividend ETF, Invesco Great Wall Fund Dividend Low Wave 100 ETF, E-Fangda Fund Dividend ETF, China Merchants Fund China Securities Dividend ETF, and Harvest Fund Dividend Low Wave ETF all increased to varying degrees this month.
Note: Dividend-related ETF fund share changes this month (data as of July 11)
Regarding the dividend direction that can be watched in the future, a recent research report by Minsheng Securities pointed out that the background of the stronger performance of dividend assets than real assets since April this year is the marginal weakening of domestic manufacturing activity. Currently, the prospects for domestic manufacturing flow recovery seem to be becoming clear, and a situation where physical assets benefit more from the resilience of economic recovery is coming. Currently, economic expectations are expected to stabilize, embrace resources and surpass dividends. We can focus on upstream resources: copper, aluminum, coal, oil and gold; lay out a new pattern of global trade around manufacturing activities: shipping (dispersion, oil transportation, shipbuilding), power grid equipment; during the downward period of the debt cycle, dividend assets reflect the resilience of physical consumption, and focus on electricity, ports and railways.