The general conversation assistant is still the scenario with the highest usage of large models. The iteration of the model and the improvement of technology capabilities will still drive the increase in usage, and for the C-end scenario, AI emotional companionship is still a highly demanded application type.
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Overall, from May 2023 to June 2024, among the statistical websites, ChatGPT, CharacterAI, and Google Gemini have always been the top three websites with the highest traffic, with ChatGPT ranked first.
Viewpoint 1: Looking at the total monthly traffic of various sub-categories, AI general conversation is still the direction with the most obvious traffic growth, and the main growth still comes from ChatGPT. The iteration of the model and the improvement of capabilities will still drive the usage of AI products. AI general conversation assistant is still the two products with the highest global traffic, ChatGPT and Google Gemini. In May 2024, OpenAI released a new generation of models, GPT-4o, which can process text, audio, and image input in any combination and generate corresponding outputs, and can achieve real-time voice interaction. After the release, the daily activity of ChatGPT website rapidly increased, while the daily activity of Google Gemini showed a downward trend. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the technological iteration and breakthrough of the leading large models is still an important reason for attracting users to use their products.
Viewpoint 2: There are products with higher MoM growth in each category, including AI search, AI marketing, AI emotional companionship, AI video generation, etc. Among the categories with faster MoM growth rate of products, AI search (360 search, Tencent Yuanbao), AI marketing (Describely, KreadoAI), emotional companionship (Honghong Simulator, Caryn, Talkie), and AI video generation (Luma AI) are the most prominent, among which 360, Yuandoubao, KreadoAI, Honghong Simulator, and Talkie are domestically produced AIGC products.
Viewpoint 3: AI emotional companionship is still a highly demanded application type for C-end. Looking at the usage time list, 3 of the top 5 applications with the longest user retention time are AI emotional companionship, followed by writing assistants. CharacterAI is an early AI emotional companionship product. After its launch, the average active time of core users is about 2 hours per day, and the average active time of all users is about 15-30 minutes per day. Although Yodayo and Talkie appeared later than CharaterAI, users' usage time has gradually increased. From the current AIGC products, AI emotional companionship is still a highly demanded product for C-end users.
In summary, the general conversation assistant is still the scenario with the highest usage of large models. The iteration of the model and the improvement of technology capabilities will still drive the increase in usage, and for the C-end scenario, AI emotional companionship is still a highly demanded application type. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the following important events expected to catalyze AI applications will still occur in 2024H2: 1) Meta open source Llama3400B+ large model; 2) OpenAI Sora is officially open for use; 3) The release of GPT5.
Recommended symbols: 1) Cloud and large models: Tencent Holdings (Internet media), Alibaba (Internet media), iFlyTek, ArcSoft Corporation, Cloud Walk Technology, Wondershare Technology Group, Zhejiang Dahua Technology; 2) AI applications: Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc., Fujian Foxit Software Development Joint Stock, Shanghai Newtouch Software, Kunlun Tech (Internet media), Yidiantianxia (Internet media), Focus Technology (Internet media); 3) Vector database: Star Ring Technology
Risk Warning: There are still differences in large model technology between China and the United States, and some technologies are still in the early stage of laboratory experiments, with landing risks; competition intensifies and affects profit margins; risks of AIGC technology evolution too fast.