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US Stock Market Preview: Taiwan Semiconductor's Q2 results exceed expectations! AI concept rebounds in pre-market trading; Initial jobless claims rise slightly, and the three major futures indices rise and fall.

Futu News · 20:38

全球宏观

周四，美股三大股指期货盘前涨跌不一

美国至7月13日当周初请失业金人数小幅上升2万人至24.3万人，预期为23万人。欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率于4.25%不变，存款机制利率于3.75%不变，边际借贷利率于4.50%不变。截至发稿，美股三大期指盘前涨跌不一。

美银：预期美股未来数月将出现动荡，标普500指数或下调5%至10%

美银策略员指出，鉴于美国总统选举的不确定性，预期华尔街股市未来数月将出现动荡，标普500指数可能下调5%至10%。美银称，市场可能高估美国选举效应，但部分股票类别确实因白宫易主而出现较大变数，包括健护类别及环保行业等，因为较受政府政策影响。整体而言，仍看好美国宏观经济基调，只是会较近年放缓，她建议的投资对象将是较不受经济周期影向的股票类别。

“特朗普2.0”将重燃通胀？下届财政部长“热门人选”：简直荒谬！

尽管社会各界对特朗普的支持声“愈发响亮”，但“特朗普2.0”也引发了不少担忧，重燃通胀就是其中之一。但下届财政部长“热门人选”斯科特·贝森特却认为这种说法很荒谬。贝森特周三在接受最新采访时表示，“我认为这很荒谬。我们看到了特朗普1.0的情况。通货膨胀率为1.9%；并且，特朗普的任何新关税“显然都将分阶段实施。”

留给拜登的时间不多了？民主党高层集体倒戈，市场看好哈里斯

随着前总统特朗普的支持率上升，拜登正在失去民主党高层的支持，人们担心他是否有能力赢得11月的总统选举。知情人士透露，美国国会参众两院民主党领袖查克·舒默和哈基姆·杰弗里斯在上周分别与美国总统拜登的单独私下会晤中发出警告，称如果拜登继续参加总统竞选，将可能危及民主党来年控制国会两院的能力。

创两年最佳表现！美国投行业二季度强势反弹

美国五大行$高盛 (GS.US)$、$摩根大通 (JPM.US)$、$摩根士丹利 (MS.US)$、$美国银行 (BAC.US)$和$花旗集团 (C.US)$等近期发布二季报，其中投行业务总共实现收入82亿美元，同比增长了40%，达到2022年初以来最高水平。过去三个月，五大行的股价表现均优于标普500指数。分析认为，这一亮眼成绩不仅反映了金融市场的复苏，也预示着投资银行可能正步入一个新的增长周期。

热点要闻

AI概念板块盘前普涨，英伟达涨超2%，台积电、特斯拉、AMD涨超1%

台积电盘前涨超1%，Q2销售额同比增40%，上调全年资本支出指引下限

$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前回落至涨超1%，报173.03美元。二季度合并营收约新台币6735.1亿新台币，同比增长40.1%；净利润2478.5亿新台币，同比增长36.3%，高于市场预期的2350亿元台币。第二季度毛利率53.2%，高于市场预期的52.6%。预计第三季度销售额224亿美元至232亿美元，上调全年按美元计销售增长预期至20%中段区间以上，从21%-26%区间上调至24%-26%。

瑞银：阿斯麦被抛售后股价有上升空间，订单仍保持强劲

瑞银发表报告指，荷兰半导体公司$阿斯麦 (ASML.US)$季绩稳健，但美国可能实施新一轮贸易限制的消息拖累股价下跌，在市场抛售后，认为其股价有上升空间，不过风险回报未及去年第四季前吸引。瑞银认为，估计明年中国业务比重回复至20%至25%的正常水平，即使面对贸易限制风险，公司的订单仍然可以保持强劲，对ASML今明两年盈利预测大致不变。

美银：上调微软目标价至510美元，重申“买入”评级，料Azure优势稳定

美银证券发表研究报告指，预期$微软 (MSFT.US)$今年第四季度营收将增长1%，随Azure及Office业务的持续强势，微软的资本开支及销售成本将会增加，预期公司营收将录双位数增长，至于利润率将下降100个基点。另外，美银证券亦相信Office业务将在2026财年首季实现20%增长。该行将微软目标价由480美元上调至510美元，重申“买入”评级。

Beyond Meat盘前跌近14%，消息称其与债券持有人洽重组债务

美国人造肉生产商$Beyond Meat (BYND.US)$盘前跌近14%，报6.2美元。消息面上，据华尔街日报引述消息人士称，Beyond Meat与一批债券持有人商讨重组资产负债表事宜。双方讨论如何处理公司发行面值11亿美元的可换股债券。

美国铝业盘前涨超1%，Q2销售额超预期并扭亏为盈

$美国铝业公司 (AA.US)$盘前涨超1%，报37.22美元。消息面上，美国铝业第二财季销售额29.1亿美元，同比增长8.3%，市场预期28.4亿美元；调整后每股收益0.16美元，上年同期每股亏损0.35美元。此外，公司早前宣布收购Alumina Limited，并将于2024年8月初完成收购，这将有助于其通过控制原材料和简化运营结构来降低运营成本。

诺基亚盘前跌超4%，Q2销售净额同比下降18%不及预期

$诺基亚 (NOK.US)$盘前跌超4%，报3.73美元。消息面上，诺基亚第二季度销售净额44.7亿欧元，同比下降18%，市场预估47.6亿欧元；调整后营业利润4.23亿欧元，同比下降32%，市场预估3.719亿欧元。该公司预计下半年净销售增长将显著加速，仍然预测全年调整后营业利润23亿至29亿欧元。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普涨

蔚来盘前涨超1%，优化毛利率是下一阶段重要任务

$蔚来 (NIO.US)$盘前涨超1%，报4.65美元。继BBA退出“价格战”后，蔚来汽车也即将对优惠幅度进行回调。在今年一季度的业绩电话会上，蔚来董事长李斌曾表达出对于打“价格战”适可而止的态度。从6月开始，蔚来会重点调整产品结构，增加一线高毛利率产品的投放占比，收窄短期促销的政策。李斌预计在今年第二季度，公司整车毛利率会回归到两位数，并于第三、四季度持续改善。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:00 美国6月谘商会领先指标月率

22:00 2025年FOMC票委古尔斯比接受雅虎财经的采访

22:30 美国至7月12日当周EIA天然气库存

次日

06:05 2024年FOMC票委戴利参加一场炉边谈话

07:45 美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话

编辑/ping

Global macro

Before the market opened on Thursday, U.S. stock index futures saw mixed gains and losses.

The initial jobless claims in the US rose slightly by 0.02 million to 0.243 million people as of July 13, with the expected figure being 0.23 million people. The European Central Bank kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.25%, the deposit facility rate unchanged at 3.75%, and the marginal lending rate unchanged at 4.50%. As of press time, the pre-market trading of the three major US stock index futures showed mixed results.

Bank of America: Expects the US stock market to experience volatility in the coming months, and the S&P 500 index may be downgraded by 5% to 10%.

Bank of America strategists point out that due to the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential election, Wall Street stocks may experience volatility in the coming months, and the S&P 500 index may be downgraded by 5% to 10%. Bank of America said that the market may overestimate the impact of the U.S. election, but some categories of stocks have indeed seen significant changes due to the change of the White House, including healthcare and environmental protection industries, because they are more affected by government policies. Overall, Bank of America is still bullish on the macro economic fundamentals of the United States, but it may slow down in recent years. She suggests that investment targets will be stocks categories that are less affected by economic cycles.

"Trump 2.0" will reignite inflation? Next Treasury Secretary "top pick": simply ridiculous!

Although support for Trump is becoming more and more vocal, “Trump 2.0” has also raised many concerns, and reigniting inflation is one of them. But Scott Bessent, a popular candidate for the next Treasury Secretary, thinks this is ridiculous. Bessent said in a recent interview, 'I think this is ridiculous. We have seen the situation of Trump 1.0. The inflation rate is 1.9%; and any new tariffs imposed by Trump will obviously be phased in.'

Time is running out for Biden? The leadership of the Democratic Party collectively changed their tune, and the market views Harris favorably.

As former President Trump's support rate rises, Biden is losing the support of senior Democrats, and people are worried about whether he has the ability to win the presidential election in November. Sources revealed that Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of both houses of the U.S. Congress, and Hakim Jessries, in two separate private meetings with U.S. President Biden last week, issued warnings that if Biden continues to participate in the presidential election, it may endanger the Democratic Party's ability to control both houses of Congress next year.

The best performance in two years! The U.S. investment banking industry rebounded strongly in the second quarter.

The five largest banks in the United States$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$,$JPMorgan (JPM.US)$,$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$And.$Citigroup (C.US)$will release their second quarterly results recently, with a total revenue of $8.2 billion from investment banking business, a year-on-year growth of 40%, reaching the highest level since early 2022. In the past three months, the stock prices of the five major banks have performed better than the S&P 500 index. Analysts believe that this impressive result not only reflects the recovery of the financial market, but also suggests that investment banks may be entering a new growth cycle.

Hot news

AI concept sector rises across the board, Nvidia rises more than 2%, TSMC, Tesla, AMD rise more than 1%

TSMC rose more than 1% before the market opened, with Q2 sales up 40% year-on-year, raising the lower limit of annual capital expenditure guidance.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$It fell to more than 1% before the market opened and reported $67.351 billion New Taiwan dollars in combined revenue and a year-on-year growth of 40.1%; a net profit of NTD 247.85 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of NTD 235 billion. The gross profit margin for the second quarter was 53.2%, higher than the market expectation of 52.6%. It is expected that the sales in the third quarter will be between $22.4 billion and $23.2 billion, and the expected growth rate of sales for the full year will be raised to the mid-range of 20% above, raised from the range of 21%-26% to 24%-26%.

UBS: ASML has room for upside after being sold off, and orders remain strong.

Netherlands-based semiconductor company ASML$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$performed well in the quarter, but news that the United States may implement a new round of trade restrictions dragged down its stock price. After the market sold off, it is believed that its stock price has room for further upside, but the risk-return is not as attractive as it was before the fourth quarter of 2019. UBS believes that the company's order book can remain strong even in the face of trade restriction risks and predicts little change in ASML's earnings forecast for the next two years.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Raises Microsoft's target price to US$510, reiterates 'buy' rating, and expects Azure's advantages to remain stable.

Bank of America Securities released a research report, stating that it is expected$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Revenue for this year's Q4 is expected to grow by 1%, following the continued strong performance of Azure and Office businesses. The capital expenditure and sales costs of Microsoft will increase, and the company's revenue is expected to record double-digit growth. However, the profit margin will decrease by 100 basis points. In addition, Bank of America Securities also believes that the Office business will achieve a 20% growth in the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. The bank has raised Microsoft's target price from $480 to $510, and reiterated its "buy" rating.

Beyond Meat fell nearly 14% before the market opened today on news that it is negotiating with bondholders to restructure its debt.

American plant-based meat producer.$Beyond Meat (BYND.US)$Down nearly 14% before the market opened today, trading at $6.2. According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, Beyond Meat has discussed with a group of bondholders the possibility of restructuring its balance sheet. The two sides are discussing how to deal with the $1.1 billion convertible bond issued by the company.

American Aluminum's pre-market trading rose more than 1%, with Q2 sales exceeding expectations and reversing losses.

$Alcoa (AA.US)$Up more than 1% before the market opened, trading at $37.22. In terms of news, American Aluminum's Q2 revenue was $2.91 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, with the market expected to be $2.84 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.16, compared to a loss per share of $0.35 in the same period last year. In addition, the company previously announced the acquisition of Alumina Limited and will complete the acquisition in early August 2024, which will help it reduce operating costs by controlling raw materials and simplifying its operating structure.

Nokia fell more than 4% pre-market, with Q2 sales net revenue down 18% year-on-year, below expectations.

$Nokia Oyj (NOK.US)$Down more than 4% before the market opened, trading at $3.73. In terms of news, Nokia's Q2 sales net revenue was €4.47 billion, down 18% year-on-year, with the market expected to be €4.76 billion. Adjusted operating profit was €0.423 billion, down 32% year-on-year, with the market expected to be €0.3719 billion. The company expects net sales growth to accelerate significantly in the second half of the year, and still predicts an adjusted operating profit of €2.3 billion to €2.9 billion for the full year.

Not to be outdone, after NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun announced the latest AI chip iteration schedule on the evening of June 2nd, AMD CEO Su Zifeng also threw out an iteration roadmap during her speech on the morning of June 3rd before the COMPUTEX opened. The company will launch the MI325 X and Ryzen AI300 this year, the MI350 series in 2025, and the MI400 series in 2026.

China concept stocks are up across the board.

Nio rose more than 1% pre-market, with optimizing gross margin as the next important task.

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Up more than 1% before the market opened, trading at $4.65. Following the exit of BBA from the "price war", Nio autos is also about to adjust the discount rate. At the performance conference call in the first quarter of this year, Nio's chairman Li Bin expressed his attitude towards stopping the "price war" when it was appropriate. Starting from June, Nio will focus on adjusting its product structure and increasing the proportion of the release of front-line high gross margin products, while narrowing the policy of short-term promotions. Li Bin expects that the company's overall vehicle gross margin will return to double digits in the second quarter of this year and continue to improve in the third and fourth quarters.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

22:00 Leading Index Month-on-Month for June in the USA.

22:00 Yahoo Finance interview with FOMC voting member Guerlsbee in 2025.

22:30 Natural Gas Inventories in the USA until July 12.

Next day

06:05 Fireside Chat with FOMC voting member Daley in 2024.

07:45 Speech by Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman.

Editor/ping

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