Incident Overview
According to the company's 2024 semi-annual performance forecast, the 2024H1 revenue is expected to be around 1.426 billion (+41%), or 0.295-0.31 billion, up 49.24%-56.83% year on year, after deducting 0.291-0.306 billion, up 50.23%-57.97% year on year. Corresponding to 2024Q2 revenue of about 0.753 billion yuan (+46.05%), the mother was 0.153-0.168 billion yuan, up 52.27%-67.24% year on year, after deducting not 0.147-0.162 billion yuan, up 50.45% to 65.76% year on year. The company's performance achieved high growth in 2024Q1. Q2 continued the high growth trend, and the growth rate was higher than Q1.
Wuling has maintained steady growth. In terms of revenue growth of tablets, when broken down, considering the acceleration in Q2 revenue growth, we expect the sales growth rate of Wuling capsules to maintain steady growth. Currently, Lingze tablets cover nearly 2,000 hospitals, and sales growth is expected to accelerate. Bering tablets are expected to continue to recover. Sales of Chinese herbal medicine tablets are expected to continue to recover. As the number of registered varieties of Chinese medicine tablets increases, sales revenue of traditional Chinese medicine tablets is expected to continue to grow rapidly over the same period last year.
In terms of profit, the 2024Q2 net interest rate is expected to be 20.26%-22.25%, higher than 2023Q2 (19.43%), and there is little difference (21.16%) from 2024Q1. The net non-net interest rate is 19.57%-21.56%, higher than 2023Q2 (19.00%), and the difference between 2024Q2 (19.00%) and 2024Q1 is not much different (21.35%), and overall profitability is stable.
The second half of the year faced a low base for the same period. High annual performance growth over the short term. In the short term, Wuling Capsule promoted revenue growth and steady improvement in profitability by replacing large specifications. This development logic was continuously verified through high Q1 and Q2 performance growth. Currently, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Alliance collection is still in the process of being implemented one after another, and it is expected that the release of the new specifications will still be reflected in the second half of the year. Considering that the company's business in the second half of 2023 was affected by changes in the operating environment and the performance base was low, we believe that the company's high performance growth for the full year 2024 is very certain.
In the medium term, Bailing capsules approved by the company are the first homologous drug of the same name approved in China. As a barefoot product, it is expected to gradually expand its market share and have great potential for development. As of mid-late June, Bailing Capsule has been connected to the Internet in more than 20 provinces, and is expected to increase its sales contribution in the second half of the year.
Profit forecasting
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2.503/3.069/3.725 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother of 0.53/0.691/0.886 billion yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current latest closing price is 20.57/15.77/12.30 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
The speed of collection and decentralization fell short of expectations; refined management fell short of expectations.