2024H1 公司正处于经营策略调整阶段，降价对毛利产生一定影响，归母净利润预计为0.21-0.30 亿元，同减89%-84%，扣非归母净利润预计为0.07-0.16 亿元，同减94%-87%，主要系公司今年中止员工持股计划，一次性计提股份支付费用0.26 亿元。其中2024Q2 公司归母净利润预计亏损0.41-0.32亿元，同减202%-180%，扣非归母净利润预计亏损0.48-0.39亿元，同减386%-332%。随着公司对供应链及各项业务的精益管理、降本增效措施的稳步推进，预计调整效果将逐步释放。On July 10, 2024, Liangpin Store announced the 2024 semi-annual results forecast.
Key points of investment
Business strategy adjustments, price cuts affect gross profit performance
2024H1 is in the process of adjusting its business strategy. The price reduction will have a certain impact on gross profit. Net profit due to mother is estimated to be 0.021-0.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 89%-84%, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother is expected to be 0.007-0.016 billion yuan, a decrease of 94% to 87%. The main reason is that the company suspended its employee shareholding plan this year and accrued a one-time share payment fee of 0.026 billion yuan. Among them, in 2024Q2, the company's net profit to mother is expected to lose 0.041-0.032 billion yuan, a decrease of 202%-180%. After deducting non-return net profit, the estimated loss is 0.048-0.039 billion yuan, or 386%-332%. With the steady progress of the company's lean management and cost reduction and efficiency measures for the supply chain and various businesses, it is expected that the effects of the adjustments will gradually be released.
Customer orders are rising steadily, and the supply chain continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency
The company introduced a price reduction strategy to sink the market and exchange volume for price. Despite the phased impact on gross profit, the effect of increasing the number of customer orders is quite obvious. For the store business, the company continuously explores optimization models, divides and operates differentiated products according to different scenarios, and at the same time replaces long-tail SKUs, streamlines product types, and enhances product competitiveness. At the same time, through the supply chain cost reduction and efficiency adaptation development strategy, the company increases the size of suppliers to reduce costs, extend product selection to the source, establish supply chain barriers, and improve operational efficiency in many ways. On the channel side, the company transfers resources to franchisees and empowers channels by optimizing profit distribution. The company continuously adapts to changes in the market environment and actively explores more efficient business models. Performance fluctuates in the short term during the strategy adjustment period, and is expected to move towards healthy development in the long term.
Profit forecasting
We are optimistic about the company's continued store development and continuous category innovation. The company launched the “New Natural Health Snacks” brand proposition in 2024, and profits will be pressured in the short term due to price and brand positioning adjustments. In the long run, the new positioning and supply chain optimization are expected to help increase sales and profits. EPS is expected to be 0.50/0.59/0.69 yuan in 2024-2026, and the current stock price is 23/19/17 times PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Downward macroeconomic risks, falling short of expectations in store development, risks of rising raw materials, and further intensification of competition risks, etc.