In the morning trading on the 12th, the following 3 points should be noted.
Rotation from high-tech stocks to value stocks
Fast Retailing, upward revision on August 24, operating profit 47.5 billion yen ← 45 billion yen
Highlighted topic in the morning session: Rintec, starting to provide EUV pellicle samples, contributing to semiconductor miniaturization
Rotation from high-tech stocks to value stocks
On the 12th, the Japanese stock market is expected to have a market trend to determine the firmness after a round of selling. On the 11th, the NY Dow was up 32 dollars and the Nasdaq was down 364 points. As the June US consumer price index (CPI) fell below expectations, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) increased, sensitive real estate and other industries were bought, and the NY Dow performed strongly throughout the day. On the other hand, the Nasdaq index fell due to profit-taking from semiconductor stocks. The Chicago Nikkei 225 futures settlement price was 41,560 yen, 810 yen lower than Osaka. The yen exchange rate is hovering around 159.10 yen per dollar.
It is expected to start with selling pressure from the form of a nodding towards Chicago futures. In the foreign exchange market, with intervention speculation related to CPI, the yen appreciated to temporarily reach the low 157s against the dollar. In the context of a diminishing gap between Japanese and US interest rates, rebalancing has become stronger and there have been scenes where the Nikkei 225 futures have been sold as low as 41,500 yen during the night session. Although overheating is cautious, the futures market is likely to experience a stronger downward trend and hedge movements.
First of all, we will want to determine the firmness after a round of selling. It is within the range of pullback waiting for a reaction to the rapid upward trend so there is a strong buying incentive. Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks were sold in the United States, and large tech stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Dot Com, and Metaplat platform have all fallen, becoming a burden on the Nikkei average type. On the other hand, it is expected that buying will be easier for TOPIX types such as value stocks.
In addition, the Nasdaq index fell for the first time in eight business days, but the Russell 2000, which consists of small-cap stocks, soared. The movement of Growth 250, which has a strong sense of delay, is also likely to be watched on the Tokyo market. Although the index has rebounded at its feet, it is being suppressed by the 75-day moving average, which is moving downward. If it seems to break through the line, there is likely to be a strong movement to reconsider small-cap stocks.
In addition, First Retail Co., Ltd. <9983> is expected to be easily bought because it has announced an upward revision, and a development that supports the Nikkei average stock market is expected. If there is a firmness after a round of selling for high-tech stocks, it may lead to the perspective of a buying opportunity at a pullback.
Fast Retailing, upward revision on August 24, operating profit 47.5 billion yen ← 45 billion yen
Fast Retailing <9983> announced a revision of the financial estimates for the fiscal year ending in August 2024. Sales revenue has been upwardly revised from 3.03 trillion yen to 3.07 trillion yen, operating profit from 450 billion yen to 475 billion yen. The impact of a warm winter meant that the Autumn and Winter product range for Uniqlo's domestic business was sluggish, however, the trend of higher temperatures than usual continued and the summer sales were strong. The estimated dividends for the fiscal year ending August 2024 have also been upwardly revised.
Materials of concern in the morning session
The Nikkei average rose (42,224.02, +392.03).
The NY Dow rose (39,753.75, +32.39).
US crude oil futures rose (82.62, +0.52).
Long-term US interest rates fell.
Expectations for inflation to ease in the US.
Request for improvement in corporate value by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
-Rintec <7966>, starting to provide EUV pellicle samples, contributing to semiconductor miniaturization
-Toyota Motor <7203> invests in North American EV charging network, aims to install 0.03 million ports by 2030
-Seino Holdings <9076>, along with T2 and other three companies, demonstrate autonomous driving of freight trucks on highways
-Mitsui & Co. <8031> participates in LNG in the UAE, investing 8.8 billion yen in facilities
-Mitsubishi Electric <6503> focuses on solutions, utilizing digital platform
-Moriroku Holdings <4249>, Moriroku Techno strengthens the proposal of heating press decoration, improving the imprinted surface as well
-Marukinlines <3901> establishes a subsidiary deeply, expanding the information infrastructure business
-Kurimoto Iron Works <5602>, simplifying the repair of bridge-type frames, with a new method
-Fanuc <6954> establishes a new base in the US, providing sales and maintenance for FA
-Biprogy <8056> automatically changes the display price, eliminating the need for anticipatory work
-Canon <7751> achieves a 90% reuse rate for parts, with 2 new models of recycled multifunction devices
-Sakai Chemical Industry <4078> aims to expand contracted development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals with raw materials and intermediates
-Mitsui Fudosan <8801> installs 8 new logistics facilities, investing a total of 1.2 trillion yen in logistics business
-Osaka Gas <9532> invests in Takeo storage battery facility, stabilizing the power system in Kyushu
-Mitsubishi Chemical Group <4188> raises OPS prices from the 21st onwards
☆ Schedule of events in the morning session
Not applicable.
- Time undecided China June exports (YoY forecast: +8.0%, May: +7.6%)
- Time undecided China June imports (YoY forecast: +2.5%, May: +1.8%)