近日，或受“集运价格跳水”“拐点已至”等市场消息扰动，本周集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约大跌，截至今日收盘，EC2412、2502、2504跌停，分别报3369.6点、2740点、2209.6点；EC2410跌13.65%，EC2408跌4.43%。1. The European line space is slightly tight, and the other routes have started to run short, and some freight forwarders say that the American line is still difficult to book. 2. This week, the joint shipping index (European line) futures far month fell sharply. The data show that the freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam are still rising, and there is a decline in the American line. 3. In terms of air transportation, insiders said that the peak season may have variables, and it is necessary to observe the shipment volume of e-commerce companies.
On July 11, Cali News (reporter Hu Haoqiong) reported that "these days, many berthages are easy to book, and currently in addition to the European line, all other routes have started to run short, including the American line." The freight forwarder in charge of a logistics company under a listed logistics company told Cali News.
However, an operator of a logistics company under a listed cargo owner told Cali News: "At present, the (American line) quote provided by my (freight) agent is still the same as that of the first ten days, and booking is still difficult."
Recently, affected by market rumors such as "joint shipping prices plummeted" and "turning point has reached", this week's joint shipping index (European route) futures main contract fell sharply. As of the close of today, EC2412, 2502, and 2504 were limit down, reporting 3,369.6, 2740, and 2,209.6 points, respectively; EC2410 fell 13.65% and EC2408 fell 4.43%.
According to the quotes provided by Jiuyu Technology today, the lowest price for shipping from Shanghai/Ningbo to Long Beach/Los Angeles is $7,000/FEU. The HMM August voyage forward price is $10,168/FEU, which is lower than yesterday's lowest price of $7,420/FEU. On July 5, the lowest price for this route was $7,660/FEU.
In terms of the European route, Jiuyu Technology data shows that the freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam continue to rise, with today's prices ranging from $8,682/FEU to $11,864/FEU. On July 5, the prices ranged from $8,378/FEU to $9,840/FEU.
Several insiders told Cali News that there were factors such as tariffs on Europe and the United States and advance shipments by cargo owners that pushed up freight rates before shipment season. However, the European route fare is not expected to fall rapidly in the short term and still depends on the balance of capacity and cargo flow; the American route may have a trend of first falling and then rising in the second half of the year.
As for air transportation, the current price is indeed higher than the same period last year, and it may also be related to the factor of American tariff increases and advance shipments by cargo owners.
Huo Feng, deputy general manager of Jialian Xun Logistics, told Cali News that the current price is higher than the usual price. E-commerce companies such as He Yin and Pinduoduo are the driving force behind the high freight prices. E-commerce companies have purchased a large amount of airline capacity. However, July and August are still the peak season of air transportation. At present, the European prices are showing a downward trend, and the American line prices are relatively stable.
"The overall air freight price is higher than last year, but whether the price from September to December can be higher than last year still depends on the shipment volume of e-commerce companies. At present, many e-commerce companies hope to purchase transportation capacity in advance, control shipment volume, and reduce air freight prices during the peak season." Huo Feng also said that currently, e-commerce companies such as Pinduoduo and He Yin have launched a semi-managed (overseas warehouse) model to avoid high air freight prices, while Amazon is promoting a "full management" model, focusing on air transportation. These are the variables that may exist during the peak season.
The latest Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI) reported 2,155 points, up 2.2% from the previous report period. On July 12 last year, the BAI index reported 1,988 points.
