XIAOMI Group-W (01810) 2019Q3 Financial Review: the inflection point of mobile phone business can be expected, and the advantage of IoT continues to strengthen.

国泰君安 · Nov 29, 2019 10:30 · 研报

本报告导读：

手机业务有望迎来拐点，5G手机放量有望推动小米手机业务市场份额和收入增速回升。IoT优势不断强化，智能电视在国际市场仍有发展空间，冰洗空有望接力发力。

投资建议：2020年全球5G手机出货量有望超过1亿台，小米5G手机放量有望推动手机业务市场份额和收入增速回升。AIoT维持快速增长、优势强化，互联网增值服务有望延续高增长。考虑到智能手机市场出货量低增长及5G初期规模效应尚不明显，小幅下调2019-2020年调整后净利润预测至109(-11%)、137(-17%)亿元，给予2020年调整后利润18X PE小幅下调目标价至11.42港币，维持增持评级。

2019Q3收入增长略有放缓，利润维持较快增长。2019Q1-Q3公司实现营收1493.7亿元，同比+14.5%，调整后净利91.88亿元，同比+37.1%；其中2019Q3公司收入536.6亿元，同比+5.5%；经调整净利润34.7亿元，同比+20.3%。Q3手机和IoT业务毛利率分别提升2.9和2.3pct，互联网服务业务受广告市场遇冷影响毛利率下滑5.5pct，但公司综合毛利率提升2.5pct，销售、管理和研发费用率分别小幅提升0.42/0.47/0.79pct，Q3经调整净利润率达6.5%，同比+0.8pct。

手机业务有望迎来拐点，5G发力及行业回暖加速增长。受稳健经营策略和备战5G影响，2019Q3公司手机业务收入小幅下滑7.8%，随着2019Q3全球手机出货量回复两年来首度正增长(Strategy Analytics分析同比+2%)，Strategy Analytics和IDC分别预测，2020年全球5G手机出货量将达到1.6亿部和1.24亿部，行业有望温和复苏。公司从2017年开始研发5G手机，2020年计划推出至少10款5G手机，行业回暖叠加新款发力，预计2020年手机业务收入增速有望回升。

AIoT业务维持快速增长，互联网增值服务增长强劲。2019Q3IoT与生活消费产品收入同比+44.4%，其中智能电视全球出货量同比+59.8%，小米电视大陆出货量第一、全球出货量前五，国际市场仍有较大提升空间。Q3互联网服务中广告/游戏/增值服务收入分别-9%/+26%/+78.2%，游戏恢复正增长，增值服务收入高增长有望延续。

小米集团-W(01810)2019Q3财报点评：手机业务拐点可期，IoT优势持续强化

This report is read as follows:

The mobile phone business is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the volume of 5G mobile phones is expected to promotemilletThe market share and income growth rate of mobile phone business rebounded. IoT advantages continue to strengthen, smart TV in the international market still has room for development, ice washing empty is expected to relay.

Investment advice: global 5G mobile phone shipments are expected to exceed 100 million units in 2020, XIAOMI 5G mobile phone volume is expected to promote the mobile phone business market share and income growth back. AIoT maintains rapid growth and its advantages are strengthened, and Internet value-added services are expected to continue to grow at a high rate. Taking into account the low growth of shipments in the smartphone market and the initial scale effect of 5G is not obvious, the adjusted net profit for 2019-2020 is forecast to 109 (- 11%) and 137 (- 17%) billion yuan, and the 2020 adjusted profit 18X PE slightly reduces the target price to HK $11.42 to maintain the overweight rating.

2019Q3 revenue growth slowed slightly and profits maintained rapid growth. 2019Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 149.37 billion yuan, + 14.5% year-on-year, adjusted net profit of 9.188 billion yuan, + 37.1% year-on-year; of which 2019Q3 company income 53.66 billion yuan, year-on-year + 5.5%; adjusted net profit 3.47 billion yuan, year-on-year + 20.3%. Q3 mobile phone and IoT business gross profit margin increased by 2.9 and 2.3pct respectively, Internet services business gross profit margin fell 5.5pct due to the impact of the advertising market, but the company's comprehensive gross profit margin increased 2.5pct, sales, management and R & D expense rates increased slightly by 0.42 picks 0.47 picks, 0.79 pctMagne Q3 adjusted net profit margin reached 6.5%, year-on-year + 0.8pct.

Mobile phone business is expected to usher in an inflection point, 5G power and accelerated growth of the industry. Under the influence of sound business strategy and preparation for 5G, 2019Q3's mobile phone business revenue fell slightly by 7.8%. As 2019Q3 global mobile phone shipments returned to positive growth for the first time in two years (Strategy Analytics analysis + 2% year on year), Strategy Analytics and IDC respectively forecast that global 5G mobile phone shipments will reach 160 million and 124 million units in 2020, and the industry is expected to recover moderately. The company began to develop 5G mobile phones in 2017, and plans to launch at least 10 5G mobile phones in 2020. The industry warms up and superimposes new models, and the growth rate of mobile phone business revenue is expected to pick up in 2020.

AIoT business maintained rapid growth, and Internet value-added services grew strongly. The income of 2019Q3IoT and consumer products is + 44.4% compared with the same period last year, of which the global shipments of smart TVs are + 59.8% compared with the same period last year. XIAOMI TV ranked first in mainland China and top five in global shipments, and there is still room for improvement in the international market. The revenue from advertising / games / value-added services in Q3 Internet services is-9%, respectively. The revenue from advertising / games / value-added services is-9%, 26% and 78.2% respectively. The game resumes positive growth, and the high growth of value-added services revenue is expected to continue.

XIAOMI Group-W (01810) 2019Q3 Financial Review: the inflection point of mobile phone business can be expected, and the advantage of IoT continues to strengthen.

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小米集团-W(01810)2019Q3财报点评：手机业务拐点可期，IoT优势持续强化

XIAOMI Group-W (01810) 2019Q3 Financial Review: the inflection point of mobile phone business can be expected, and the advantage of IoT continues to strengthen.

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