Key points of investment
The company released the 24H1 performance forecast. 24H1 net profit to mother was 0.21-0.26 billion yuan, down 80%-84%, 0.17-0.21 billion yuan, down 83%-87%; 24Q2 net profit to mother 0.1-0.15 billion yuan, down 75%-84%, -16% to +27% month-on-month; 24Q2 deducted non-net profit 0.07-0.11 billion yuan, same decrease of 81% to +88% month-on-month. Among them, equity incentive expenses affect profits of 0.01 billion yuan, which are later or recovered, and a reduced value of 0.01 billion yuan + is calculated.
24Q2 electrolyte shipments are expected to increase 25% over the year. In terms of shipment, we expect the company to ship 0.11 million tons+ of electrolyte in 24Q2, an increase of 20% +, and close to 2,000 tons of external lithium salt in Q2, with a month-on-month increase of 0.015 million tons. In total, the corresponding electrolyte shipments are nearly 0.13 million tons, an increase of 40% +. We expect to ship about 0.5 million tons of electrolyte in 24 years, an increase of 25% over the same period. Additionally, the annual supply of lithium salt is expected to reach 0.005-0.01 million tons. With 0.05 million tons+ of liquid, total shipments are expected to reach 0.55 million tons+, an increase of 40% over the same period, further increasing the market share.
The 24Q2 electrolyte sector made a profit of 0.1 billion yuan+, and unit profit has bottomed out. We estimate that 24Q2 has a net profit of about 0.001 million yuan per ton of electrolyte, with a slight decrease from month to month. The profit per ton of external lithium salt supply is about 0.005 million yuan, and the total profit of the electrolyte sector 24Q2 contributed 0.1 billion yuan+. We expect the profit per ton of electrolyte to be around 0.001 million yuan for 24 years. At present, the price of hexafluoride has bottomed out. The price of loose orders is 0.06 million yuan +/ton. Second- and third-tier manufacturers have already lost cash costs, and small factories have shut down production capacity. We expect the capacity utilization rate of the hexafluoride industry to increase to 80% + in 25, and the price is expected to reverse.
Iron phosphate 24Q2 losses increased month-on-month, and Nikkei steadily contributed to profits. We expect losses of iron phosphate and lithium iron in 24Q2 to be about 0.06 billion yuan, an increase of 20% month-on-month. We expect the total impact of the iron phosphate business on profit of 0.2 billion yuan + in 24 years. 24Q2 lithium carbonate hedging contributed about 0.02 billion yuan in profit, which is included in the resource recycling sector. In the daily chemical business, we expect 24Q2 to contribute 0.05 billion yuan+ in profit, and we expect to contribute 0.2 billion yuan+ in 24 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the decline in the company's product prices, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 0.61/1.5/2.26 billion yuan (the original forecast for 2024-2026 was 1.213/2.106/3.104 billion yuan), compared to -68%/+148%/+50%, corresponding PE is 50/20/13 times. Considering that the company is at the bottom of the cycle, future prices are more flexible to recover profits, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: sales volume falls short of expectations, profit level falls short of expectations