Caixin reported on July 11th that with the continuous downturn of the semiconductor sector, small compositions of market sentiments have been quietly circulating.

Today, China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index fell more than 1% at the opening and closed slightly up 0.1%. The fluctuations in heavyweight stocks are even more severe, for example, naura technology group, the largest weighted stock, fell more than 5% today and finally closed down 1.97%, its second consecutive day of decline. Anji microelectronics technology collapsed yesterday and turned red again at the close today. There are rumors in the market that the large decline in the sector was caused by significant rebalancing of funds, and there are also rumors of scrutiny of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers. So what is the truth?

Rumors of sector decline caused by significant rebalancing of funds emerge. Also, rumors of scrutiny of Chinese semiconductor manufacturers are circulating, what is the real situation?

A rewritten small composition appeared in the semiconductor circle.

Today, there was a 'rewritten' short article that caused significant stock price fluctuations among listed companies such as Naura Technology Group. The rumor claimed that several US government officials requested that administrative departments investigate several Chinese semiconductor manufacturing companies, including Naura Technology Group and Shanghai Microelectronics Centre.

According to the relevant personnel of the investor relations department of Naura Technology Group, it is fake news and was rewritten from a message issued by Contemporary Amperex Technology in June and is ready to be reported to the police.

Previously, several US congressmen wrote to officials of the US Department of Homeland Security requesting that the US administrative department blacklist Contemporary Amperex Technology and Gotion High-Tech Company, two Chinese battery companies, and ban their products from entering the US market. Contemporary Amperex Technology released a statement stating that a letter from US congressmen on June 5th made allegations against Contemporary Amperex Technology which was unfounded and completely wrong.

With the response issued, Naura Technology Group's afternoon drop slightly narrowed today.

Large-scale fund rebalancing causes individual stock price decline?

Another heavyweight stock in the China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index, Anji Microelectronics Technology, collapsed yesterday and finally fell 9.12%. Today, the stock rose slightly at the opening, but its rising momentum weakened, and it finally fell 0.19%.

According to the first quarter report, as of the end of the first quarter, the top ten circulating shareholders of Anji Microelectronics Technology include the National Social Security Fund 406 Combination, public funds, asset management plans, etc. From the perspective of institutional investors, 26 institutional investors hold the stock at the end of the first quarter, of which 21 are fund companies or brokerage asset management companies.

There are rumors in the market that the stock's flash crash yesterday was caused by fund rebalancing. However, Caixin analyzed the performance of several public funds among the top ten circulating shareholders of the stock and found that these public funds' rebalancing is polarized.

Wind data shows the public funds such as Invesco Great Wall Electronics Information Industry Fund, Invesco Great Wall Emerging Industry Leaders Fund, Invesco Great Wall Environmental Protection Advantages Fund, and China Europe Quality Enterprises Fund all hold shares of Anji Microelectronics Technology, with returns down more than 10% in the first quarter, and the largest drop reached 14.04%. At that time, Anji Microelectronics Technology's stock price fell by 14.47% in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, Anji Microelectronics Technology's stock price rose by 19.9%, but the net values of these four products were polarized. The second-quarter net value ranged from a decline of 3.72% to a rise of 5.41%.

On July 10th, while Anji Microelectronics Technology's stock price fell more than 9%, the net value decline of these funds that hold its shares did not exceed 1%, and the fund with the largest decline lost 0.69% that day.

Also, on the same day, Anji Microelectronics Technology's market cap fell by 1.46 billion yuan. Wind data shows that at the end of the first quarter, the holding market value of the top ten circulating shareholders of the stock ranged from 0.124 billion yuan to 0.343 billion yuan. Combined with the estimated stock price rise, the holding market value in the second quarter will increase to 0.149 billion yuan to 0.411 billion yuan.

Therefore, it can be inferred that the significant rebalancing of these funds may cause some fluctuations in the stock price, but the flash crash yesterday may not be solely caused by the rebalancing of funds.

What will be the opportunities for the semiconductor sector in the future?

Despite various rumors, the market's attention to the semiconductor sector has not diminished. Data shows that the penghua guozheng semiconductor chip ETF has fallen more than 4% since late June and has been volatile in recent days. However, many institutions have expressed bullishness about the future market for semiconductors.

According to recent research reports by citic sec, the global semiconductor equipment market is expected to continue to grow in scale in 2024/2025, with the Chinese mainland market leading the world. There is still a significant gap in domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity, and there is a lot of room for improvement in domestic equipment production.

Benefiting from the rapid growth of downstream demand and the fast-growing localization rate, the institution recommends continuous attention to new product layouts and advanced capacity brought by domestic equipment, parts, and materials companies in the bottleneck field and the resulting increase in orders. It is expected that the orders of domestic equipment companies will increase rapidly in the next 2-3 years.

However, the institution also pointed out that risk factors such as unexpected restrictions on Huawei's semiconductor technology and a slower-than-expected recovery of the semiconductor industry should be noted.

Another fund company believes that the establishment of the National Large Fund Phase III will focus on investing in the semiconductor materials and equipment fields with strategic significance and cutting-edge directions, providing development opportunities for relevant companies. Investors should closely monitor the investment direction of the National Large Fund and seize investment opportunities. In addition, domestic substitution has become an important development direction for the semiconductor industry, especially in key fields such as materials and equipment, domestic companies are expected to achieve breakthroughs and provide new investment opportunities for investors.