Incident Overview
On July 9, the company released the 2024 semi-annual results forecast: 2024H1 revenue is expected to be 2.4-2.45 billion yuan, up 8.61%-10.87% year on year, loss due to mother 0.176-0.168 billion yuan, year-on-year loss of 0.046-0.054 billion yuan, after deducting non-loss of 0.142-0.132 billion yuan, year-on-year loss of 0.113-0.123 billion yuan; corresponding to 2024Q2 revenue 1.227- 1.277 billion yuan, up 6.64%-10.98% year on year, 4.62%-8.88% month on month, loss to mother 0.071-0.063 billion yuan, loss 0.076-0.084 billion yuan year on year, 0.034-0.042 billion yuan month-on-month after deducting non-loss of 0.052-0.042 billion yuan, year-on-year loss of 0.099-0.109 billion yuan, year-on-year loss of 0.038-0.048 billion yuan At billion yuan, losses have narrowed markedly and are close to breakeven.
The average number of daily inpatient beds remained stable during the off-season, and the demand for diagnosis and treatment continued to expand. The company's average number of beds in June was about 3500-3600 in central hospitals and 1500-1600 (maintaining full load). The central hospital had an average of 3,611 patients in March 2024. This was a peak month in the first half of the year, but there was not much difference with June. We think it is mainly related to the following factors: (1) The demand for medical treatment in surrounding Gaoxin Phase III was handed over and the surrounding schools continued to expand (Gaoxin's 31st Elementary School and 11th Elementary School enrollment batches were completed Student, Zhonghai, Investment Promotion, Tiandi Source, New We hope to wait until a number of housing projects from real estate developers are being completed and delivered); (2) The influence of hospital brands continues to increase, and the radiation effect of medical services in the region continues to increase (the proportion of overseas patients has increased from less than 10% to 38%). Overall, central hospitals are operating more steadily.
Profit forecasting
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 5.881/7.125/8.4 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 0.029/0.215/0.512 billion yuan, respectively. The PS corresponding to the current latest closing price is 1.78/1.47/1.24 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
Health insurance fee controls are getting stricter, and the number of hospitalizations is not climbing as fast as expected.