Will tonight's CPI announcement determine whether there will be an interest rate cut in September?

来源：华尔街见闻

美联储主席鲍威尔国会讲话后，美股开始为9月降息庆祝，标普史上首破5600点，今晚公布的重磅通胀数据预计为这种乐观情绪再添一把大火。

在华尔街，几乎每个分析师都预计，美国6月CPI更温和上涨，通胀压力继续缓解，如果CPI数据符合或低于预期，美联储9月开启降息周期的可能性将大大增加。

北京时间周四晚20:30，美国劳工部将公布6月CPI数据。根据市场共识：

6月份，总体CPI同比涨幅预计从5月的3.3%下降至3.1%（70位分析师预测区间为3.0-3.3%)），为5个月来的最低纪录；环比上涨0.1%，较前值0%小幅上升（预测区间为0.0-0.2%）。
核心CPI（剔除波动较大的食品和能源）同比涨幅预计持平5月的3.4%（预测区间在3.3-3.5%之间）；环比上涨0.2%（预测区间为0.1-0.3%)），与5月持平，有望创下去年8月以来最小的连续两个月涨幅。

总体而言，华尔街对于6月通胀数据的预期高度一致，在媒体调查的70位分析师中，有55位预期核心CPI环比增长0.2%，只有少数预测为0.3%或0.1%。

美国银行表示，预计“又一个疲软的通胀报告”将给美联储更多信心，认为通胀正处于正确的下行轨道上，尽管基数效应可能会让年率难以显示出太多进展。

如果CPI符合我们的预期，我们预计9月会议在市场眼中仍将十分活跃。宏观经济数据已经大幅减弱，自2016年1月以来的宏观经济惊喜指数处于最低水平，这应该会带动通胀降温，使宏观经济和通胀重新同步。

住房、二手车通胀放缓

在主要投行中，高盛对于通胀放缓的速度较为保守，总体和核心CPI涨幅预期均略高于市场普遍预期。高盛强调了通胀的三个关键趋势:

二手车价格持续跟随拍卖价格下跌，预计6月同比下降1.6%。现在二手车拍卖价格已经从峰值下降了28%，而CPI二手车价格下降了16%，表明二手车价格在这次报告中还有进一步下降的空间。
汽车保险价格将继续上涨，但增速低于今年早些时候。高盛预测汽车保险部分将增长0.5%，而2024年迄今为止平均增长1.3%。
占CPI统计三分之一的住房通胀，预计较上月放缓，新租约和续租之间的差距正在缩小。高盛预测，6月租金增长0.36%，OER增长0.39%）；到2024年12月，总体住房通胀将以每月约0.34%的涨幅上涨，租金和OER分别以0.25%和0.37%的涨幅上涨。

至于其他部门，高盛预计机票价格将保持不变，反映出银行在线机票价格的上涨，但可能存在负面的剩余季节性因素；由于剩余季节性因素，消费电子类别可能会略有提升。

9月降息在望？

美联储主席鲍威尔最近反复表示，通胀正在回到下行轨道，但仍需要更多数据确认通胀持续缓解才会考虑降息，他正将关注重点从超级核心服务通胀转向劳动力市场，作为判断通胀是否回归2%目标的主要指标。

美联储官员们也一直强调，需要看到持续的通胀下降趋势才会考虑放松货币政策。

如果CPI数据符合或低于预期，可能会进一步支持9月降息的预期。市场目前预期美联储今年将降息两次，11月降息已经被完全定价，9月首轮降息的概率约为80%。

如果通常再次出现大超预期放缓的情况，市场可能会开始完全定价或几乎完全定价9月的降息，鲍威尔讲话后，7月降息基本上被排除了，因此市场对这方面的定价不太可能有太大变化。

美股今晚会继续上演狂欢吗？

重磅CPI公布之前，市场对的预期已经反映在了风险资产定价上。鲍威尔称无需等到通胀降至2%以下就可降息，“鸽声大作”坚定市场对9月开启降息的押注，周三大型科技股带领美股尾盘迅速蹿升，主要指数齐收涨超1%，标普连涨七日为今年最长纪录，与纳指均至少六日创新高

美股市场在CPI数据公布前夕出现了一定程度的上涨，显示出投资者对于通胀放缓和未来降息的乐观态度。

因此，无论是符合预期还是略低于预期，今晚CPI对美股的影响都可能有限。然而，一旦通胀超出市场预期，市场很可能会做出剧烈反应，包括债券收益率的上升和股票价格的下跌。

对此，摩根大通的分析师提出了几种可能的情景:

6月CPI超预期，或拖累美股下挫。
如果核心CPI环比涨幅高于0.3%（发生概率为2.5%），可能引发市场对衰退或滞胀的担忧，导致股市和债券市场同时下跌，标普500指数下跌1.25%至2.5%。
在0.2%-0.25%区间的数据（发生概率为30%）基本符合预期，可能导致更为温和的负面反应，标普或下跌0.75%至1.25%。
低于0.2%的数据将被视为积极信号，可能推动股市上涨。
在0.15%-0.20%区间（发生概率为35%），9月降息呼声震耳欲聋，标普或上涨0.25%至0.75%。
在0.10-0.15%区间（发生概率为15%），标普或上涨1%至1.5%。
低于0.1%（发生概率为2.5%），9月降息板上钉钉，甚至助涨7月降息预期，标普或上涨1%至1.75%。

然而，分析师也指出，即使CPI数据良好，它对美股的推动作用可能不如之前几个月明显，因为市场已经对年内两次降息有较高预期。

编辑/jayden

Source: Wall Street See

After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to Congress, US stocks began to celebrate the interest rate cut in September. The S&P broke 5600 points for the first time in history. The heavy inflation data to be released tonight is expected to add fuel to this optimistic sentiment.

On Wall Street, almost every analyst expects that the U.S. CPI in June will rise more moderately, and the inflation pressure will continue to ease. If the CPI data meets or falls below expectations, the possibility of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle in September will greatly increase.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release CPI data for June on Thursday evening Beijing time. According to market consensus:

In June, the overall CPI is expected to decrease from May's 3.3% to 3.1% (70 analysts predicted the range is 3.0-3.3%), which is the lowest record in 5 months; the month-on-month increase is 0.1%, which is slightly higher than the previous value of 0% (predicted range is 0.0-0.2%).
The core CPI (excluding the highly volatile food and energy components) is expected to remain flat with May's 3.4% (range is between 3.3-3.5%); the month-on-month increase is predicted to be 0.2% (range is between 0.1-0.3%), which is the same as May and may set a record of the smallest consecutive two-month increase since August last year.

Overall, Wall Street has a highly consistent expectation for the June inflation data. Among the 70 analysts surveyed by the media, 55 expected the core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, and only a few predicted it to be 0.3% or 0.1%.

Bank of America predicts that another "soft inflation report" will give the Fed more confidence, believing that inflation is on the right track of downward adjustment, although base effects may make it difficult for the annual rate to show much progress.

If the CPI meets our expectations, we expect that the September meeting will still be very active in the eyes of the market. Macroeconomic data has weakened significantly, and the surprise index of macroeconomic data since January 2016 has reached its lowest level. This should lead to cooling of inflation and make macroeconomics and inflation resynchronize.

Housing and second-hand car inflation are slowing down.

Among the major investment banks, Goldman Sachs is relatively conservative about the rate of inflation slowdown, and the overall and core CPI growth expectations are slightly higher than the market consensus. Goldman Sachs emphasized three key trends of inflation:

The price of used cars continued to follow the auction prices and is expected to decline by 1.6% year-on-year in June. Now, the auction price of used cars has dropped by 28% from the peak, and the CPI used car price has dropped by 16%, indicating that there is room for further decline in used car prices in this report.
The price of car insurance will continue to rise, but the growth rate will be lower than earlier this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the car insurance portion will grow by 0.5%, while the average growth rate so far in 2024 is 1.3%.
Housing inflation, which accounts for one-third of CPI statistics, is expected to slow down from the previous month, and the gap between new lease and renewal is narrowing. Goldman Sachs predicts that rents will increase by 0.36% in June, and OER will increase by 0.39%); by December 2024, overall housing inflation will rise by about 0.34% per month, and rents and OER will increase by 0.25% and 0.37%, respectively.

As for other sectors, Goldman Sachs expects that airfare prices will remain unchanged, reflecting the rise in online airfare prices by banks, but negative residual seasonal factors may exist; consumer electronics may increase slightly due to residual seasonal factors.

Cut rates in sight for September?

Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated recently that inflation is returning to a downward trend, but more data is needed to confirm that inflation is easing continuously before considering a rate cut. He is now shifting his focus from super-core service inflation to the labor market as the main indicator for judging whether inflation will return to the 2% target.

Fed officials have also emphasized that they need to see a sustained trend of inflation decline before considering easing monetary policy.

If the CPI data meets or falls below expectations, it may further support the expectation of a rate cut in September. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the rate cut in November has been fully priced in. The probability of the first round of rate cuts in September is about 80%.

If another significant slowdown in inflation above expectations occurs, the market may begin to fully price in or almost fully price in a rate cut in September. After Powell's speech, the rate cut in July was basically ruled out, so the pricing in this regard is not likely to change much.

Will the US stock market continue to party tonight?

Before the heavyweight CPI announcement, the market's expectations have been reflected in the pricing of risk assets. Powell said that there is no need to wait for inflation to fall below 2% before cutting interest rates. The sound of the dove confirms the market's bet on a rate cut in September. On Wednesday, large technology stocks led the U.S. stock market to rise rapidly in the final stage of trading, and major indices closed up more than 1%, with the S&P 500 reaching a record of the longest continuous increase in seven days this year, and the Nasdaq also hitting a new high for at least six days.

Before the release of CPI data, there was a certain degree of increase in the US stock market, indicating investors' optimistic attitude towards the slowdown in inflation and future interest rate cuts.

Therefore, whether meeting expectations or slightly below expectations, the impact of tonight's CPI on the US stock market may be limited. However, once inflation exceeds market expectations, the market is likely to make a violent reaction, including the rise of bond yields and the fall of stock prices.

JPMorgan analysts have proposed several possible scenarios:

The June CPI exceeds expectations, or drags down the US stocks.
If the core CPI month-on-month increase is higher than 0.3% (probability of occurrence is 2.5%), it may cause market concerns about recession or stagflation, leading to the simultaneous decline of the stock and bond markets. The S&P 500 index will fall 1.25% to 2.5%.
Data in the range of 0.2%-0.25% (probability of occurrence is 30%) is basically in line with expectations, which may cause a more moderate negative reaction, and the S&P may fall by 0.75% to 1.25%.
Data below 0.2% will be regarded as bullish signals, which may push up the stock market.
In the range of 0.15%-0.20% (probability of occurrence is 35%), the call for interest rate cuts in September is deafening, and the S&P may rise by 0.25% to 0.75%.
In the range of 0.10-0.15% (probability of occurrence is 15%), the S&P may rise by 1% to 1.5%.
Data below 0.1% (probability of occurrence is 2.5%) will nail the interest rate cut in September and even boost expectations for a rate cut in July, and the S&P may rise by 1% to 1.75%.

However, analysts also pointed out that even if the CPI data is good, its driving force on the US stock market may not be as significant as in the previous months, because the market has a high expectation for two interest rate cuts within this year.

Editor / jayden

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9月降息与否，今晚CPI一锤定音？