Incidents:
The company released the 2024 semi-annual report performance forecast. The company expects to achieve net profit of 314.9 million yuan to 343.53 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 120%-140% over the previous year, after deducting non-return net profit of 281.4 million yuan to 312.67 million yuan, an increase of 170%-200% year on year.
Comment:
The performance exceeded market expectations, and we are looking forward to the performance in the second half of the year. On a quarterly basis, the company expects to achieve net profit of 0.193-0.222 billion in Q2, up 122%-155% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 0.174-0.205 billion, up 156%-202% year on year, and Q2 achieved good growth compared to Q1. According to data from the Central Inspection Institute, in 2023, H1 issued 54 batches (+63%) of the main product of human blood albumin, 36 batches (+33%) of intravenous human immunoglobulin batches, 5 batches (-28.6%), 11 batches (+37.5%), and Eight Factor 47 batches (+671%). The issuance of the company's main products grew steadily, providing a guarantee for the company's further improvement in performance in the second half of the year. We expect the company to continue to perform well in the second half of the year.
The sales price of the terminal Jing Jing Jing remained high, and the outside hospital market grew significantly. According to statistics from the Zhongkang database, the sales volume of Jingbai outside the hospital has continued to grow since Q1 in 2023, accounting for about 40% of the sales volume; in terms of unit price, the average unit price of 2024Q1 out of hospital 2.5g Jingbing Guangdong Shuanglin is about 744 yuan. In June 2024, according to data from the Shaanxi Health Insurance Administration, the average sales price of Guangdong Shuanglin 2.5g Jingjing Pharmaceuticals is 750 yuan, and the price remains high, confirming that the current Jingjing market is still in a tight balance between supply and demand. It is expected that as the company's pulp collection volume increases, the market potential of Jingbing will be further exploited, and the company's profitability will increase significantly.
Profit forecast and investment advice: As current demand in the blood products market continues to rise, we continue to be optimistic about the company's future performance and raise the company's performance expectations. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 2.95/3.48/4.02 billion, net profit to mother 0.77/0.92/1.079 billion, and EPS 1.05/1.26/1.47 yuan, corresponding to the current market value PE of 26/22/18 times. Compared with the same industry, the company's valuation level is at a low level. Considering that the company has set up many new pulp stations in recent years and the albumin and static acrylic markets continue to expand, we gave the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Short-term fluctuations in supply and demand affect prices, pulp harvesting falls short of expectations, etc.