2024Q2 业绩下滑主要系去年同期基数较高、非经常损益波动等原因影响：我们认为公司2024Q2 业绩主要原因包括：①去年同期非经常性损益9,169.03 万元（调整后），主要为登康口腔上市交易，公允价值增长较大；②马消2023H2 开始加大拨备计提力度，且2023Q2 业绩基数较高；③2023Q2 公司零售主业业绩基数较高，今年消费环境下2024Q2 基数正常，因此产生同比下滑。公司2021Q1/Q2 主业利润为3.48/ 0.99 亿，2023Q1/Q2 为2.79/ 1.12 亿，2024Q1/Q2 为2.80/ 0.94 亿。可见2023Q2的业绩基数明显较2021Q2 和2024Q2 偏高。Key points of investment
Performance summary: 2024H1's revenue was 8.98 billion yuan, yoy -12%, net profit to mother was 0.712 billion yuan, yoy -21%; net profit after deducting non-net profit was 0.704 billion yuan, yoy -13%. The non-recurring profit and loss for the same period last year was mainly the profit and loss from changes in fair value of Dengkang Dental's listing. By business, the company's immediate consumer finance subsidiary (hereinafter referred to as Ma Shao) contributed 0.33 billion yuan in profit, YOY -21%. Excluding Ma Shao, the main business deducted non-net profit of 0.374 billion yuan, YOY -4.5%.
Corresponding to 2024Q2: The company's revenue was 4.13 billion yuan, yoy -18.5%; net profit to mother was 0.28 billion yuan, yoy -28.9%. After deducting non-net profit, it was 0.26 billion yuan, yoy -26.5%. By section, we estimate that Ma Shao contributed about 0.16 billion yuan, yoy -31%; after excluding Ma Shao, the main business deducted non-net profit of 0.094 billion yuan, yoy -16.4%.
The decline in 2024Q2's performance is mainly due to the high base of the same period last year and irregular profit and loss fluctuations: We believe that the main reasons for the company's 2024Q2 performance include: ① non-recurring profit and loss of 91.6903 million yuan (after adjustment) in the same period last year, mainly Dengkang Dental listing transactions, with a significant increase in fair value; ② Ma Shao 2023H2 has begun to increase its provision and calculation efforts, and the 2023Q2 performance base is high; ③ 2023Q2's main retail business has a high performance base, and the 2024Q2 base is normal in this year's consumer environment, so This resulted in a year-on-year decline. The company's main business profit for 2021 Q1/Q2 was 3.48/ 0.099 billion, 2023Q1/Q2 was 2.79/ 0.112 billion, and 2024Q1/Q2 was 2.80/ 0.094 billion. It can be seen that the 2023Q2 performance base is clearly higher than that of 2021Q2 and 2024Q2.
Focus on the company's state-owned enterprise reform process and the potential to improve operating efficiency and profit margins: Chongqing Department Store is an enterprise with excellent governance and superior asset quality in the industry. As the company transforms its supply chain and operating efficiency, it is expected that profit margins will be further improved; experiments such as retail “six major stores” and “hard discount stores” are expected to open up room for revenue growth. In the future, as the company's operations and governance are further adjusted, it is expected that the demand pressure faced by the industry will be hedged by improving profit margins and operating efficiency.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Taking into account factors such as the reduction in profit expectations for Malaysia, we lowered the company's 2024-26 net profit forecast from 14.5/15.9/ 1.71 billion yuan to 13.3/1.4/1.47 billion yuan, corresponding to the closing price of July 10, PE 7/6/6 times. Considering the company's current low valuation, high historical dividend rate, and superior asset quality in the industry, we still maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: increased competition in the industry, sluggish demand for terminal consumers, changes in consumer finance operations and policies, etc.
