游戏业务增长受产品周期未到、人员梳理等因素压制，影视业务扣非口径微亏。1）游戏：预计1H24 归母净亏损1.8-1.4亿元，扣非净亏损1.7-1.3 亿元，去年同期扣非净利4.3 亿元，今年增长压力较大主要系多款在运营游戏受产品生命周期影响，流水同比自然下滑，而1H24 推出的《一拳超人》（海外）表现不及预期，《女神异闻录》4.12 公测，玩家反馈良好，但我们预计由于确收递延等影响，Q2 贡献有限；同时公司调整产品布局，进行人才梯队梳理和人员优化，产生一定费用。Brief performance review
On July 9, 2024, the company released the 2024 interim report performance forecast. It is estimated that 1H24 will have a net loss of 0.2-0.16 billion yuan, a profit of 0.38 billion yuan for the same period last year, deducting non-net loss of 0.24-0.2 billion yuan, and deducting 0.29 billion yuan of non-net profit for the same period last year.
Management analysis
The growth of the game business was suppressed by factors such as failure to reach the product cycle and personnel management, and the film and television business withheld minor losses. 1) Gaming: 1H24 is expected to have a net loss of 0.18-0.14 billion yuan, deducting a non-net loss of 0.17-0.13 billion yuan, and deducting 0.43 billion yuan of non-net profit in the same period last year. The high growth pressure this year is mainly due to the impact of the product life cycle, and sales volume naturally declined year-on-year. “One Punch Man” (Overseas) launched by 1H24 fell short of expectations. “Persona” 4.12 is open beta, and player feedback is good, but we expect Q2's contribution to be limited due to delays in receipt, etc.; At the same time, the company adjusted the product layout, sorted out the talent pool and optimized personnel, and generated certain expenses.
2) Film and television: The net profit of 1H24 is estimated to be about 0.08 billion yuan, and the net profit of non-return to the mother is about -0.01 billion. During the reporting period, TV dramas such as “Little Days” and short dramas such as “New Year's Eve” will be broadcast. Non-operating income mainly consists of the proceeds from the disposal of the assets of Universal Pictures films in the United States.
Q2 Losses in the game business narrowed, and the film and television business withheld marginal profits. 1) Gaming: The net loss for Q2 is expected to be 0.065-0.025 billion yuan, after deducting non-net loss of 0.071-0.031 billion yuan, which is narrower than Q1's net loss of 0.115 billion yuan and non-net loss of 0.099 billion yuan. 2) Film and television: The net loss for Q2 is expected to be 0.037 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 0.12 billion yuan compared to Q1, which is mainly unaffected; non-net profit of 0.007 billion yuan is expected to be deducted, reversing the loss from Q1.
Looking forward to the follow-up: Focus on the launch of reserve products and sorting out the company's product line and personnel.
1) Games: The company will firmly focus on “MMO+” and “Card +” and promote various self-developed games such as “Immortal World”, “Immortals 2,” “Code YH,” and “Code Z”. Mobile games such as “Perfect New World”, “World of Immortals”, and “Persona” are all expected to be launched this year; after the game product line is clearly sorted out, it is expected that once the talent pool stabilizes, it is expected to launch lightly. 2) Film and television: “May Your Years Be Quiet”, “Just Dream of Rivers and Lakes”, and “Red Hot”, etc. stored by the company are being produced, distributed, and broadcast normally.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's net profit to be 0.38/0.6/0.88 billion yuan for 24-26, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 38.8/22.9/15.6X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Game and video product launches fall short of expectations; risk of release of version numbers falling short of expectations; risk of game regulation; risk of AI technology development and application falling short of expectations.
