2024 年H1 公司归母利润预告中值同比+44%，大幅增长。2024年H1 公司预计实现归母净利润4 至4.2 亿元，取中值为4.1 亿元，同比+44%。2024 年H1 公司归母净利润实现较快增长主要系以下原因：1）公司全面深化变革，成立“夯实基础、降本增效、改善提质、卓越运营”四大领导小组，开展一系列项目落地和试点工程，降本增效工作逐步取得成效。2）公司进一步加快完善绩效考核评价体系，对效益提升加大奖励力度，激发员工积极性和创造性，加快效益提升。3）公司推进海外经营体卓越运营，海外经营体盈利能力明显改善，尤其是北美板块实现同比扭亏为盈，带动公司整体盈利提升。4）公司综合竞争力获得客户高度认可，各业务板块配套份额和配套价值提升，拉动订单持续增长。Incidents:
On July 8, 2024, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. announced the 2024 interim report performance forecast: The company expects to achieve net profit of 4 to 0.42 billion yuan in 2024, +40% to +47% year over year; net profit without return to mother is 3.5 to 0.37 billion yuan, +35% to +43% year over year.
Investment highlights:
The median profit forecast for H1 Company in 2024 was +44% year-on-year, a significant increase. In 2024, H1 expects to achieve net profit of 4 to 0.42 billion yuan, with a median value of 0.41 billion yuan, or +44% over the same period last year. In 2024, H1's net profit to mother achieved rapid growth mainly due to the following reasons: 1) The company comprehensively deepened reforms, set up four leading groups to “consolidate the foundation, reduce costs and increase efficiency, improve quality and improve operation”, and carried out a series of project implementation and pilot projects, and gradually achieved results in cost reduction and efficiency efforts. 2) The company further accelerates the improvement of the performance assessment and evaluation system, increases rewards for efficiency improvement, stimulates employees' enthusiasm and creativity, and accelerates efficiency improvement. 3) The company promoted the excellent operation of overseas operators, and the profitability of overseas operators improved markedly. In particular, the North American sector turned losses into profits year on year, driving the company's overall profit increase. 4) The company's comprehensive competitiveness has been highly recognized by customers, and the supporting share and supporting value of various business segments has increased, driving the continuous growth of orders.
The company's quarterly profit is expected to continue to rise due to comprehensive reform of the management system and the decline in overseas business profits. The company's net profit for Q1 2024 was 0.19 billion yuan, +51% YoY; the median net profit for Q2 2024 was 0.22 billion yuan, +38% YoY. We believe that in the future, the company's quarterly profit is expected to continue to increase under the influence of two factors, such as management system reform and rising overseas business profits: 1) Comprehensive deepening of changes and speeding up efficiency improvement. Since 2023, the company has firmly and continuously implemented the business policy of “transformation and innovation, cost reduction and efficiency, open source revenue generation, and data talk”, and has effectively promoted a series of reform initiatives such as contract management, breakthrough incentives for excellent efficiency, construction of dozens of zero-defect demonstration production lines, and four major benchmark factory construction pilots, and gradually improved operating efficiency. 2) The profitability of overseas business is expected to continue to increase. According to the company's 2023 annual report, the company continues to deepen its overseas production capacity layout, and both the Mexican plant and the Polish plant have been put into operation. According to the company's 2024 semi-annual performance forecast, the North American sector has turned a year-on-year loss into a profit. We believe that in the future, along with the decline in production capacity in overseas factories, the scale effect will show, and the profitability of the company's overseas business is expected to continue to increase, thereby improving overall performance.
Profit forecasts and investment ratings Under the influence of positive factors such as management system reform and overseas business profitability, the company's performance is expected to continue to increase. We expect the company to achieve total operating income of 13.7, 16.9, 19.8 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 23%, and 17%; achieving net profit to mother of 0.877, 1.144, and 1.425 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 30%, and 25%; EPS is 1.06, 1.38, 1.72 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE was valued at 17, 13, and 10 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risks suggest that raw material prices continue to rise; sales fall short of expectations; new customer expansion falls short of expectations; production capacity of new plants falls short of expectations; overseas market expansion falls short of expectations; and new product development progress falls short of expectations.
