公司业绩符合预期。根据公司业绩预告折算2024 年上半年基本每股收益为0.55 - 0.71 元，符合预期。单季度来看，公司2024Q2 实现归母净利润1.79 - 2.79 亿元，同比增加63.39% - 154.59%，环比增加16.20% - 81.06%，基本每股收益为0.29 - 0.46 元。Description of the event
The company announced a pre-increase in its 2024 semi-annual results. It is expected to achieve net profit of 0.334 to 0.434 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, an increase of 0.204 to 0.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 157.19% -234.35%; it is expected to achieve net profit without deduction of 0.325 to 0.423 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, an increase of 0.2 to 0.297 billion yuan over the previous year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 158.93% - 236.61%
Incident reviews
The company's performance was in line with expectations. Based on the company's performance forecast, basic earnings per share for the first half of 2024 were $0.55 - 0.71 yuan, in line with expectations. Looking at a single quarter, the company achieved net profit of 0.179 to 0.279 billion yuan in 2024Q2, up 63.39% - 154.59% year on year, 16.20% - 81.06% month on month, and basic earnings per share of 0.29 to 0.46 yuan.
Benefiting from the implementation of quota management and lower raw material prices, the profitability of third-generation refrigerants has increased.
HFCs began implementing quota management in 2024, and the relationship between supply and demand improved markedly; according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average market prices for refrigerants R22, R134a, R125, and R32 in the first half of the year were 2.39, 0.0311, 0.0396, and 0.0279 million yuan/ton, respectively, increasing 23.83%, 31.25%, 53.87%, and 94.66%, respectively; benefiting from the rise in refrigerant prosperity, the company's HFCs refrigerant product prices also increased year on year. At the same time, the prices of some major raw materials declined year on year, further expanding the profit margin of refrigerant products; according to Baichuan Yingfu data, the prices of the main raw materials hydrofluoric acid, trichloromethane, methylene chloride, perchloroethylene and trichloroethylene were 10258, 2678, 2,500, 4724, and 4783 yuan/ton, respectively, up 7.11%, 0.09%, 6.38%, and 27.51% year-on-year respectively.
The quota policy imposes restrictions on the supply side, and the long-term refrigerant pattern is improving. Domestic sales and emissions of air conditioners declined in the third quarter. Compared to the low season for refrigerant purchases, prices may have declined briefly; in the fourth quarter, there may be a low quota balance on the supply side, which once again boosted refrigerant market prices. The quota policy and the relationship between supply and demand are still key factors affecting refrigerant prices. Under quota restrictions, refrigerant supply is limited, demand is growing steadily, and the refrigerant supply and demand and competition pattern continues to improve.
Investment advice
The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.17\ 1.39\ 1.50, corresponding to the company's closing price of 37.63 yuan on July 8, and PE of 32.2\ 27.1\ 25.1 for 2024 to 2026, respectively; optimistic about the company's profitability under the long-term refrigerant boom, the first coverage gave it a “buy-B” rating.
Risk warning
The commissioning progress of new construction projects fell short of expectations; prices of important raw materials and energy fluctuated greatly; downstream demand fell short of expectations; industrial policy risks, etc.
