Thanks to the completion of the basic resumption of aluminum electrolysis production in Yunnan and the high aluminum price, the net profit of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to increase by more than 50% in H1. In the product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products was 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively, which is a year-on-year increase of 28.10%. Meanwhile, in the domestic aluminum electrolysis industry, the average profit in the first half of the year reached 3000 yuan/ton.
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On July 10th, Caixin reported that Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ) is expected to see a net profit increase of more than 50% in the first half of the year due to the completion of the basic resumption of aluminum electrolysis production in Yunnan and the high aluminum price.
Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. released a performance forecast this evening, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.4 billion yuan-2.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, an increase of 58.42%-71.62% year-on-year. The profit after non-current assets adjustment was expected to be 2.3 billion yuan-2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.29%-67.71% year-on-year.
Regarding the reasons for the performance growth, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. mentioned in the announcement that in the first half of the year, the company strengthened communication with the power management department, actively sought to use electricity load, accelerated the resumption progress of aluminum electrolysis production, significantly improved the load rate of aluminum electrolysis production capacity; at the same time, after the rise in aluminum prices, the company's aluminum product sales volume increased year-on-year.
It should be noted that after entering the dry season in Yunnan Province in early November 2023, there was a tight power supply, and local industrial power consumption showed varying degrees of production reduction, among which aluminum electrolysis companies responded to energy-saving management and implemented production reductions during the dry season.
According to Baichuan Yinfu and Minsheng Securities data, the current round of 0.61 million tons of aluminum electrolysis production capacity limited production has resumed since March 2024. By the end of May, 0.37 million tons had been resumed, leaving 0.24 million tons remaining.
Li Kui, a nonferrous metal researcher at Huarong Rongda Futures, told Caixin that in late March, the first batch of aluminum electrolysis production resumed in Yunnan Province. Since then, with the continuous improvement of local power supply, the resumption work was basically completed in the first half of the year. Yunnan's resumption scale reached 1.2 million tons in the first half of 2024, and the current operating capacity is 5.68 million tons, with 0.1 million tons of production capacity left to be resumed. With sufficient rainfall in Yunnan during the rainy season and the supplement of new energy power, it is expected that the reduction in production during the dry season this year will be significantly weakened.
According to Zhuochuang Information data, from January to June 2024, the average spot aluminum price in China was 19,795 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 1,309 yuan/ton, or 7.08%. Judging from the long-term operational trend, the price is at a relatively high level in the past five years.
Li Kui said that in terms of aluminum electrolysis profits, with the continuous expansion of downstream aluminum processing capacity and the background of the 45 million tons of aluminum plant capacity limit in China, with the rising aluminum price in the first half of the year, the profit of the industry chain mainly tilted towards aluminum electrolysis plants. The average profit of the domestic aluminum electrolysis industry in the first half of the year reached 3000 yuan/ton.