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特斯拉掀起惊涛骇浪

Tesla caused a sensation.

wallstreetcn ·  Jul 10 22:15

Source: Wall Street See
Author: Chai Xuchen. He frequently absent from car exhibitions, but he made a splash at AI exhibitions. Recently, at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai, Tesla became one of the most eye-catching booths. From Optimus humanoid robots to Cybertrucks equipped with FSD, they are all telling Musk's AI story. Tesla is also stirring up the AI ecosystem with these innovations and looking for breakthroughs in AI application. Among them, Tesla's FSD, the most close-to-production autonomous driving system, has begun to affect the pattern of the automotive industry. At the end of last year, the FSD V12 version, which is equipped with an 'end-to-end' AI macro model, began testing in the United States. It has caused a wave of intelligent driving in the local area with close-to-human driving performance. The heat has spread to China, bringing hope to players suffering from internal consumption. Not only new forces such as Weisila, but also old car companies such as Great Wall Motors are aggressively attacking intelligent driving. Technology companies such as Baidu and Didi are also accelerating the iteration of intelligent driving technology. This giant that stirs up China's new energy vehicle process, Tesla, has once again caused a wave in the AI field, bringing about the second round of industry reshuffle. Pushing. In the past ten trading days, Tesla has achieved ten consecutive gains, with the stock price up 43.68% cumulatively, rising above $260, a change from the performance below the market average earlier this year. The warming of investors' expectations for Tesla's FSD revenue and their anticipation of Robotaxi to be released in August have become the main driving factors for this round of Tesla's rising. The time node for FSD to land in China is also approaching. At the beginning of June, a Tesla employee accidentally leaked in the live broadcast that the internal test version of FSD V12 was suspected to be tested in China. At the end of June, Tesla's deputy general manager Zhu Xiaotong was asked when FSD will land during his visit to Shanghai, and his response was 'soon.' Actually, two months ago, when Musk suddenly visited Beijing, FSD's entry into China seemed to have been pressed the fast-forward button. Soon, Tesla entered the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data compliance list; Baidu granted it map surveying and mapping qualifications and provided lane-level navigation system. With the gradual solution of information compliance issues, FSD, which has already killed four sides in North America at the end of last year, finally has the opportunity to compete in China. And the 'end-to-end' technology with AI macro model dubbed by FSD's 'secret weapon' is the core of this year's competition in the intelligent driving field. Insiders pointed out that the end-to-end architecture of FSDV12 achieves the overall integration of 'perception' and 'decision-making' through AI intelligent driving models. It is equivalent to the 'ChatGPT' of automatic driving. Musk emphasized that FSDV12 has no artificially set codes for handling various driving situations. Only by 'feeding' videos can AI learn to drive on its own. This also reduces the new FSD's 0.3 million lines of code compared to the past, greatly improves the simplicity of the system, and improves operational efficiency.

The next disruptor.

The weather is good today The weather is good today.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.

Recently, at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai, Tesla became one of the most eye-catching booths. From Optimus humanoid robots to Cybertrucks equipped with FSD, they are all telling Musk's AI story. Tesla is also stirring up the AI ecosystem with these innovations and looking for breakthroughs in AI application. Among them, Tesla's FSD, the most close-to-production autonomous driving system, has begun to affect the pattern of the automotive industry.

At the end of last year, the FSD V12 version, which is equipped with an 'end-to-end' AI macro model, began testing in the United States. It has caused a wave of intelligent driving in the local area with close-to-human driving performance. The heat has spread to China, bringing hope to players suffering from internal consumption. Not only new forces such as Weisila, but also old car companies such as Great Wall Motors are aggressively attacking intelligent driving. Technology companies such as Baidu and Didi are also accelerating the iteration of intelligent driving technology. This giant that stirs up China's new energy vehicle process, Tesla, has once again caused a wave in the AI field, bringing about the second round of industry reshuffle.

At the end of last year, the FSD V12 version, which is equipped with an 'end-to-end' AI macro model, began testing in the United States. It has caused a wave of intelligent driving in the local area with close-to-human driving performance.

The wave of intelligent driving has spread to China, bringing hope to players suffering from internal consumption. Not only new forces such as Weisila, but also old car companies such as Great Wall Motors are aggressively attacking intelligent driving.$BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ)$/$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$, $Great Wall Motor (601633.SH)$/$GWMOTOR (02333.HK)$, $SAIC Motor Corporation (600104.SH)$are also aggressively attacking intelligent driving;$Baidu (BIDU.US)$/$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$companies such as Baidu and Didi are also accelerating the iteration of intelligent driving technology.

Tesla, the giant that stirs up China's new energy vehicle process, has once again caused a wave in the AI field, bringing about the second round of industry reshuffle.

Impacting.

Tesla has achieved ten consecutive gains in the past ten trading days, with the stock price up 43.68% cumulatively, rising above $260, a change from the performance below the market average earlier this year.

The warming of investors' expectations for Tesla's FSD revenue and their anticipation of Robotaxi to be released in August have become the main driving factors for this round of Tesla's rising.

The time node for FSD to land in China is also approaching. At the beginning of June, a Tesla employee accidentally leaked in the live broadcast that the internal test version of FSD V12 was suspected to be tested in China. At the end of June, Tesla's deputy general manager Zhu Xiaotong was asked when FSD will land during his visit to Shanghai, and his response was 'soon.'

Actually, two months ago, when Musk suddenly visited Beijing, FSD's entry into China seemed to have been pressed the fast-forward button. Soon, Tesla entered the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers data compliance list; Baidu granted it map surveying and mapping qualifications and provided lane-level navigation system.

With the gradual solution of information compliance issues, FSD, which has already killed four sides in North America at the end of last year, finally has the opportunity to compete in China. And the 'end-to-end' technology with AI macro model dubbed by FSD's 'secret weapon' is the core of this year's competition in the intelligent driving field.

Insiders pointed out that the end-to-end architecture of FSDV12 achieves the overall integration of 'perception' and 'decision-making' through AI intelligent driving models. It is equivalent to the 'ChatGPT' of automatic driving.

Musk emphasized that FSDV12 has no artificially set codes for handling various driving situations. Only by 'feeding' videos can AI learn to drive on its own. This also reduces the new FSD's 0.3 million lines of code compared to the past, greatly improves the simplicity of the system, and improves operational efficiency.

Keen competitors in China have already sensed the trend.

As one of the leading smart driving experiences in China, Xiaopeng announced this year that it will invest 3.5 billion and hire 4,000 people to strengthen its AI and smart driving capabilities. Meanwhile, Huawei has launched ADS3.0, realizing the modularization of decision planning on their products. IDEAL has regarded intelligent driving as a top priority since last year, while even Wang Chuanfu, who was once 'ambiguous' towards autonomous driving, has now employed 4,000 engineers and invested more than 100 billion yuan in research and development.

This is just a glimpse. Starting this year, whether it's established carmakers undergoing a 'second start-up' or joint ventures such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors, all are rapidly developing smart-driving technologies in order to catch up in the field. These brands have also capitalized on the 'hybrid smart driving' concept while rolling out their new fossil-fueled cars to compete for consumers' attention.

On one side is the global EV heavyweights, while on the other are the domestic players waiting for their opportunity. The showdown is about to begin, and even the once cool-headed investors are starting to show interest.

In May of this year, the UK startup Wayve announced $1.05 billion in financing, which was seen as a signal of investor recognition of end-to-end smart driving technology in a global market that had been in a slump since the first half of 2021.

The smart driving frenzy led by FSD has brought new development opportunities for new energy players.

Shuffle

By 2024, the competition in China's automobile industry has become unprecedentedly fierce.

Once sales leader in the new energy field, NIO's halo has disappeared, falling from its previous high point of 40,000 to 50,000 vehicles sold monthly. Li Auto, which grew aggressively last year, also faced a setback due to the MEGA crisis, with this year's sales target of 800,000 vehicles evaporating. Meanwhile, Xiaopeng has yet to achieve ten thousand cars in sales per month, and BYD's YoY growth rate has also dropped to 20%.

The lagging players urgently need to turn the tide; Huawei,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$Cross-industry players like Huawei are competing for the right to set prices and the right to speak through unconventional marketing methods, while industry giants at the table are trying to consolidate their positions and are not willing to lose any of their existing market share.

To defend or break through the city, everyone can only lower prices and drive industry competition towards chaos, except for product development. $GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$Chairman Zeng Qinghong publicly stated, "This is not a solution. Losses are the biggest harm to the automobile industry."

Musk, who shook up the smart driving track with FSDV12, has discovered new demand in the market and opportunities to disrupt the game.

Open-source Securities predicts that the penetration rate of L3 and L4 will surpass 10% very rapidly by 2025 and reach 30% by 2027, with full autonomous driving reaching 70-80% by 2030 at an exponential speed of improvement.

This is similar to the process of Tesla's localization five years ago. When Model 3 and Y were localized, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate skyrocketed from 4% to over 50%. It is believed that Tesla's FSD will also replicate this path in the smart driving field.

The Chinese market also believes that Tesla will once again shake up the automotive industry with their smart driving technology, inspiring a reshuffle of the car market.

As the pre-season has already begun, Xiaopeng and WeRide are focusing on their smart driving labels, while XIAOMI has iterated its intelligent parking version. Musk sent an email personally demanding that all Tesla salespeople must let car owners experience FSD before delivery, and he cut FSD's subscription price by one-third.

However, under the new rules, it is still difficult to determine who will win the first round.

In the eyes of the industry, advanced intelligent driving has not yet reached its final stage. Musk said that every version of FSDV12 has been making exponential improvements, and will ultimately achieve completely unsupervised automated driving; Xiaopeng, Huawei and others are also aggressively getting in the game, adopting a 'end-to-end' approach that does not completely rely on either visual or lidar systems.

How will the market evolve next? Everest Capital points out several potential challenges and opportunities for smart driving in the future, which could become the key variables of winning and losing among players.

According to its report on end-to-end autonomous driving industry, the requirements for training data and computing power of end-to-end smart driving have been unprecedentedly improved, except for the technical route divergence.

This year, Musk, who is passionate about AI, is about to increase the training computing power investment of Tesla. It plans to increase the H100 chip to 0.085 million units within the year and achieve the same level as its counterparts. Previously, Tesla deployed a larger-scale A100 GPU training cluster that has far exceeded the actual training computing power investment in the smart driving industry. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$In addition, Musk recently revealed information about the next-generation vehicle computing platform HW5.0, which has 10 times more computing power than the current model HW4.0 and will be launched in the second half of 2025. This may present a "crushing" situation for FSD. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$/$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$However, FSD, which is thriving in the North American market, may encounter difficulties in Chinese actual roads; on the other hand, Chinese consumers are still relatively resistant to "subscription payment", and price will become a potential obstacle. This gives domestic players some opportunities to "get into someone's weakness".

The direction of this new competition is still difficult to judge, but the participants in the game have already sharpened their swords. Perhaps according to the industry's forecast, when smart driving can enter the "iPhone era" in a year or two, the market pattern will be overturned.



Editor/Jadyen

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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